저자: 미상 · 외국인
요약 보기
중국·트럼프 관세 갈등 고조로 선물 하락. 엔비디아 H20 수출 라이선스 불확실로 약 55억달러 재고 손실 처리. 관세 장기화 시 중국이 오히려 우위일 수 있다는 외교 분석 인용. 유동성 감소, 장단기 금리차 역전(2s30s 39bp)에 따른 경기침체 확률 50% 제시. 개인 매수 유입 지속으로 하락장 추가 충격 가능성 경고. 2분기 글로벌 둔화 예상.
다듬은 글
Hey, so futures are in the red and a lot of this has to do with escalated tensions with China, especially with the Nvidia news that we just heard. But this goes way beyond the Nvidia news that just came out. So, in this video, I'd like to talk to you a little bit about what's going on between Trump and China, and how things aren't exactly going as planned for Donald Trump.
First, we'll hit the Nvidia news, and then we'll get into a little bit on what Besson said yesterday, along with some other information. First, and very importantly, yes, tonight at 11:59 p.m. the prices for the Meet Kevin membership go up. So, if you lock in that membership tonight, you lock it in forever, that price will never go up on you.
You get in after the price goes up. However, I want you to know this as well. If you're skeptical, try it for 30 days. You can sign up for 30 days, get a full 30 days of use out of it. Try it for 30 days. See if you like the membership. It doesn't have to drive with you. Might not work with your routine.
You might not like it, but a lot of you seem to love it. So, let's keep doing it. So, check it out at meetke.com and get in before 11:59 p.m. tonight. So, futures are down on the Nvidia news. Why? Because Nvidia is required now to obtain a license with unclear approval time frames to be able to export their H20s to China.
These chips were estimated to make up 12 to 15 billion of Nvidia's $130 billion of annual revenue. So, figure a little over 10%. Uh now currently they're taking a $5.5 billion charge in the quarter to mark down inventory and contracts mostly because well I mean frankly they have no idea when they're going to get these licenses and what they're going to do is they're going to write down their existing inventory and say you know what we're just going to take the L here and if we get the license in the future we'll recognize that as income again which in some sense as a long-term Nvidia investor is potentially a good thing because the company's just taking the bad news charge now and they'll add it back in later when Chinese trade tensions hopefully resolve and cool and these licenses are a little bit easier to acquire.
Of course, we're getting sort of tit fortat retaliation now with uh Boeing uh deliveries being suspended in China, which Kimble Musk actually chimes in on, and he suggests, "Yeah, I mean, I get it. Boeing planes are manufactured in America, but they're also made with a like a thousand to 10,000 different Chinese parts." So you really have these integrated economies where even things that are wholly manufactured in the United States are using Chinese parts uh and to some extent things that are wholly manufactured in China are using parts from different parts of the world as well.
So we have this interconnected economy that Donald Trump is really now calling into question and that's what's leading to uncertainty at least with regards to the futures market today. This could obviously change once Donald Trump changes his mind. After all, Donald Trump tells us that we want countries to choose between the US or China, which is interesting because that's also coming that he just said this on Fox News.
That's coming at the same time as he says, "We're open to negotiating with China." So, very much the art of the deal/caos is what we're seeing here. We don't exactly have a clear guide in terms of what's going to happen, but the problem that we have to pay attention to is China. Because see JP Morgan has actually taken a flip of a stance here and they see China as now more investable than the United States.
In fact, they see Europe uh and China selectively investable as a hedge for international investors reluctant to jump back in early to the US exceptionalism trade with China more likely to deliver hefty policy support. Now, this is interesting because really what you're finding is hedge funds and institutions who have been big sellers of US treasuries but also US stocks as they've been moving money away from sort of risk equity assets.
What they've done is they've said, "Hey, maybe there's actually a safe haven in Europe and China, which is interesting because if we really believe that the Chinese negotiations are going to come and this trade war is going to fizzle away, then you would expect a reversal back basically from Europe and China and then back to the United States as things are on sale." I mean, look at Meta, for example.
It's trading for what, $518? It was just trading for what, $718 not too long ago, it seemed. Maybe not quite that high, but anyway, it was over certainly over seven. Uh, and so JP Morgan leaves us at a 60% chance of uh a US and global recession with a 40% nonrecessionary call. And then of course they have various different cases here for the S&P 500 in terms of price targets dependent really on whether or not we come up with a deal with China so we can essentially resolve the trade tensions that we face right now.
Uh the problem with all of this is that lately we've been stuck in this mindset of okay maybe Trump isn't actually going to get rid of any of the tariffs. See, the EU news this morning taken in itself wasn't actually that useful in that, okay, the European Union expects that some American tariffs are going to remain in place even after negotiations.
That was the European news news this morning. We kind of already suspected that with Europe. The problem is what if that's the case with China and if that leaves China hardened against the United States? And see, this is where things get interesting because most people have the mindset that China is so reliant on us that they're dead without us.
But that might not actually be the case. And I'm going to share a foreign affairs piece that talks exactly about this in just a moment. But first, I want to tell you how China is branding this. China, if you go to the uh, you know, Chinese paper, the South China Morning Post, on the front page, let's Google it.
South China Morning Post, it's a Chinese paper. Okay? Okay. So, you can you can even if you want call it Chinese propaganda. I just want you to see how they are branding it. Okay. Here's how they're branding it. Uh this is their exclusive piece. Exclusive. Trump tariffs may make China's domestic economy stronger in the long run.
That the Chinese economy is better prepared this time around compared with the last trade war with the US. Now, this is an interesting point of view because Donald Trump actually brings up the last trade war all the time. In fact, he just had a truth social post today where he's like, "Oh, Biden abandoned the farmers and the last Chinese trade war hurt the farmers, but we ended up negotiating a big bailout win of 29 billion for them." What Donald Trump neglects to mention, because sometimes truth just seems to elude him when it's inconvenient, is that what happened during the trade war 1.0 know is we actually lost a lot of our export market for agricultural goods and they ended up going to countries like Brazil because my goodness, wow, we have an international market.
When the US closes its door to its a products, China goes, "All right, well, who else has this a product?" Oh, Brazil. All right, good enough for us. I mean, hey, you want to do free trade? We're open to free trade. Uh, and I understand there are definitely problems, you know, in the Chinese economy and in regards to Chinese trade, whether it's the dumping of goods or potentially IP theft, right?
These are problems that we have to solve. But let's focus for a moment on how Donald Trump is positioning them himself versus how China is positioning themselves. Because China is like, "Hey, this trade war could actually be good for us, and we're doubling and tripling down on our partnerships, not only in Europe, but they've got a giant piece out on 40 trade deals being signed with Malaysia today, which is honestly a perfect slap in the face to Trump because Trump keeps talking about doing trade deals, but we're not actually seeing signed trade deals.
Meanwhile, what is China doing? We're actually signing 40 trade deals right now." Now, obviously that's what they're saying, but what you could see is the little needling at Trump, right? You could see the way they're trying to brand what they're doing is as a way to purposefully try to needle at Trump.
And Trump is waiting for the phone to ring for the Chinese to call to negotiate. But so far, we've still seen nothing. So now, what's the problem here? And what does foreign affairs say is is a large problem when it comes to China. Well, foreign affairs has a great piece. I encourage you to to read foreign affairs.
Uh they they're they're dense. I encourage you not to use AI to read them. Actually read like read to understand. Foreign Affairs is fantastic. Anyway, they argue that Trump believes he has what's called escalation dominance. Escalation dominance is when the more a war goes on, the more pain your opponent feels.
And foreign affairs thinks that Trump believes he has that. that Trump says, "Oh, well, 15% of China's economy is relying on the United States, so they need us, so uh the phone will ring one of these days." But then they question, well, what if he's wrong? See, China might actually have escalation dominance.
Besson in his interview with Bloomberg, he's like, ah, China relies on us more for trade. They're, you know, playing poker with a pair of twos. They're making a really big mistake. That might be true. But they take a very interesting argument. Foreign affairs. What foreign affairs says is what happens when you lose some of your trade?
Well, your income goes down. So your income goes down. You cut some of your spending. All right. So you contract a little bit. Yeah, it hurts. You're not unscathed. But what do you do without Chinese manufacturing in America when you can't replace vital goods that you would otherwise have to wait decades for to get?
We can't build chips in the United States tomorrow. It could take us decades to do that. You know, even larger chips, you know, the 27 uh nanometer chips, basically actuator chips for the windows, the window switches on our cars, uh the uh water flow pumps and the little circuits. These are tiny like 5-cent circuit boards that sit inside your washing machine or your dryer.
These chips come from China. Makes sense. Are we going to put a factory together and make these 5-cent chips? No. We're going to put together uh significantly more advanced manufacturing as we should, which Jamie Diamond agrees is also important for national security. Which comes at a really interesting irony because Donald Trump keeps bragging about how Nvidia is now going to manufacture their Blackwell chip at TSMC in in Phoenix.
You know, they're finally ramping up to get to full production here in 2025 after they opened after many delays. But what people forget is that facility was funded with $6.6 billion by the CHIPS act. The CHIPS act was a Biden policy. Yeah. The plant opened under uh Trump essentially and actually well started scaling under Trump uh you know it opened just before uh but uh but it really isn't getting to scale until this year and hence Nvidia partnering with the United States uh division of TSMC.
But this was a Biden act that actually got this manufacturing to the United States. And I'm not here to shill for Biden. I'm just here to say, you know, Trump, you might have to be careful because you could actually be overplaying your hand here because you're taking credit for things that you didn't do.
And then you're assuming that every other company is willing to do that, but then you're forgetting about the incentives that actually drove those companies to be willing to do that here in America. And this is where foreign affairs argues that there's actually a potential suicidal strategy that we're using against China right now.
See, I'm just going to read this section out because I think this is such an interesting way they place this. Uh, and take a look at it. It'll really, I think, give you some respect for what foreign affairs does. What's more, if you focus solely on bilateral trade balance, as the Trump administration does, it bodess poorly for the United States in a trade war with China.
In 2024, US exports of goods and services to China were almost $200 billion and imports were about $462 billion, resulting in a deficit of 263. To the degree that bilateral trade balance predicts which side will win a trade war, the advantage lies with the one with the surplus economy, not the deficit.
China has the surplus. In other words, they have the edge, not us. China, the surplus country, is giving up sales, which is solely money. This is what we were just talking about. The United States gives up goods and services that it cannot produce at home. And then here's the suicidal part. When it comes to a real war, you have to reason.
You have reason to be afraid of being invaded. And it would be suicidal to provoke your enemy before you've armed yourself. In other words, why are we provoking China before we've actually homebased some of this manufacturing? Maybe we should go about this differently and start homebasing our manufacturing more like what we did under the Biden chips act and then attack China rather than the other way around where we're attacking China while we're defenseless and then we're totally taking credit for things that aren't our doing which misleads us into thinking we're actually doing something good when what we're doing is completely economically destructive.
In other words, Trump is being stupid in this case. Now, people think that by me saying that that I'm anti-Trump or I'm picking political sides. My videos are not about picking political sides. They're about sharing that Donald Trump has backed himself into a corner. And from a finance or an investor point of view, you have to be very careful with this because if Trump backs himself into a corner and he truly believes that we are going to keep some lasting tariffs and that China is going to fold, then you must ask yourself what happens when he finally realizes he's wrong.
Does he then flip-flop? Maybe. But how much damage is done by then? This is not just the cheap electronic chips or the critical minerals that we need or the pharma ingredients that go into our our medicines. As Foreign Affairs says, quote, "It is wildly reckless not to ensure alternate suppliers were adequate domestic production before cutting off trade because on the terms of even if Donald Trump is just using this as a negotiating strategy, his strategy will do more harm than good.
And it when you include consumer uncertainty and business uncertainty with this, the result is a US productive capacity that declines rather than improves, which only increases the leverage that China has over the United States. This is not good. So, uh, you know, when we really consider this foreign affairs piece, we have to put aside our politics for a moment and think, huh, Donald Trump has a four-year term.
China, you know, Xiinping, they're in this for probably a much longer period of time than our current set of politicians because it's one party rule. They are much slower and much more methodical and they are willing to take these calculated battlefield moves. Whereas Donald Trump is acting a little bit cowboy-ish right now and he's on a time limit.
You've got midterms coming up. You know, midterm campaigning is going to be well underway in a year from now, which is crazy to think about, a year from now, we will be well underway with midterm campaigning. So, Trump's clock is ticking substantially. And given at least China's branding and the likelihood that they're able to just, we're not going to call it Trump, let him flip-flop first.
It could mean that Trump actually ends up escalating this ch trade war with China substantially more rather than reducing it. And I think that's in part why we saw the Nvidia news today and why we're seeing futures down because you know people are concerned by this. Now don't get me wrong, China is still going to get hit.
The whole world securities, they're based out of I think Hong Kong it is. But anyway, they believe the entire world needs to brace for a slowdown in the second quarter because that's not only when the tariffs hit, but that's when all the inventory pull forward that we had in Q1 goes away. So we don't have inventory building up anymore in Q2.
are trying to get rid of it at a lower margin and we have the tariffs in effect. That's a problem. So, expect a sharp decline in shipment and trade flow across the world. They also suggest that yes, there will be a large decline in trade with China as a first order shock, but then you're going to get hit with the PMIs, the confidence, the equity shock, and more.
So, again, this this video is not to say that China is going to get out of the scot-free. Everybody's going to be affected with pain. But this is this is a Chinese trade war on steroids compared to what we had in 2018. And it's one of the reasons why you're now getting corporations and this was unexpected.
But corporations like United are now putting out dual earnings forecasts. People thought companies would just remove guidance, but United is like, "Hey, we actually beat on operating income and EPS and we think we're going to keep beating unless there's a recession." So they're giving two different version versions of EPS.
Look, fiscal year midpoint $12.50. If there's a recession, eight bucks. In other words, a quarter lower, 25% lower. Now, mind you, United Airlines is already down 30% year to date. It's like 29.6%. They're up 6% in after hours, but they're still way beat up because the airline industry is probably at least in some level of recession.
On top of that, you're still setting up for some form of a shock. See, look at liquidity. Okay, liquidity right now based on current data is way down here. We have not seen this lack of liquidity in the stock market since 2020. Uh and if you look at the bid ask spreads we're seeing the bid ass spreads on stocks right now which are is a measure of liquidity or lack of liquidity.
So the higher this chart is the less liquidity. We haven't seen these numbers since co. So there is a lack of capital right now. There's a lack of cash. You know this is why I mean knock on wood but we feel really grateful at house hack because we're just sitting on a pile of cash. We're like, "Whatever happens, bring it on.
We're going to be getting some sick deals and we're going to explode this company uh in in uh you know, in valuation." My hope and obviously bias here could be wrong uh throughout whatever happens over the next few years, which obviously is why I'm so grateful to those of you who are uh investing in House Act, mind you, we have the nonacredited round open and the accredited round open.
You can learn more about what we do. You can see our properties and everything else that we've got. I think our cash on hand is closer to 10 million now with the recent fundraising that we've done since this is an end of February number here. So, we'll get some of these numbers updated. Uh but uh feel free to explore our website house.com and and get yourself some exposure to real estate for this third and fourth quarter where we think they're going to be some sweet sick deals especially in certain markets.
Certain markets are going to get hit this year and we're going to take some opportunities. So, check that out house.com. But in terms of recession models, you know, we've really been triggering recession models for over a year now. Uh Bloomberg was complaining about this earlier today where they're like, you know, if we just looked at a market implied model of recession, we've basically been at a certain recession within the next 12 months for the last like 18 months.
So obviously they've recently been misfiring unless we're already in a recession. But Cameron Cruz put together a really interesting breakdown for us on the inverted yield curve, which tells us like we're primed for a shock. We're primed for a recession. Combine that with low liquidity, prime for a recession.
Combine that with Chinese uncertainty and Donald Trump's untruths, probably increasing the odds of a really big problem. But anyway, if you look at the twos 30s, I usually uh like to use the twos 10s, but let's use the twos 30s uh based on their analysis for a moment. They say that when you see the uninversion by 20 basis points or more, 36% chance of recession.
35 basis points or more, 46%. Where we sit now, 39 basis points, 50% chance of recession. But what you got to see is as that keeps going up. So as we go from, you know, on the two 10ens, for example, 54 basis points of uninverted, if we get up another 30 basis points and we're like 80 to 85% suddenly uninverted, we're closer to a 75% chance of recession.
So that's why it's so important to watch that 2's 10 spread or the 2's 30 spread, whichever you want to watch. The other thing is, which is very odd from previous 20% selldowns, the latest selldown that we've had in the stock market has pretty much only been driven by hedge funds. Inflows, new money coming from retail has continued to happen or has continued to flow into the market.
Whereas usually we only associate 20% sellowns with net outflows, not inflows. But we saw $31 billion of inflows which is very unusual for a draw down of 20%. But it's also a warning because it says we have not hit retail capitulation. And if we haven't hit retail capitulation, then that means this sellown we just had is just an appetizer.
On top of this, in the spirit of sort of these talks about military conflicts potentially evolving uh you know uh over over the entire global economy or environment like what we talked about yesterday with Iran and China and otherwise. Steve Woff was just talking about how maybe Iran might be open to some low-level nuclear enrichment and the White House would be willing to accept some of that.
But now it seems like there's a flip-flop going on and the White House actually wants complete abandonment, which is not good because Iran's nuclear capabilities are substantially greater today than they were in 2016. Uh with their ability to get to weaponization maybe only a few months away rather than 1 to two years away.
Uh and so they have I mean they have three times the centrifuges that to enrich uranium that they had previously in 2016. So they've really been expanding their nuclear, you know, infrastructure, which creates more concern that we are going to end up in an escalating military conflict with not just Iran, but also potentially China and Taiwan and Ukraine, Russia, when we're supposed to be deescalating and ending wars.
So in other words, we put all of this together. We're obviously going to have a whole lot to talk about on the course member livereams, and I hope you join. give yourself that shot. Try the 30-day trial if you want. The price will be going up. Uh we've got it here on the website 11:59 p.m. tonight. So, go check this out.
Choose your option. Uh and and get in uh because you know we we're going to go in and change this price is going to be higher. So, lock it in now and try it again. If if you don't like it after 30 days, cancel. Give it a full 30 days. Give it a try. Give it a feel and see what you think. Uh and and I think you'll love the information that you get.
And if you don't, no harm, no foul. who have absolutely the right and the privilege to cancel. You deserve that. Uh so what I want you to think about when we put all of this together is how do you invest with confidence that the bottom is in in the market? In the short term, we might have, you know, a short-term sort of consolidation.
I mean, today's stock market was really, really boring. We just traded sideways all day. The idea that we're going to go escape to like Netflix stock though or Door Dash or whatever uh really ignores the reality that all of them get whacked in a recession. I know a lot of people are like, "Oh, we're safe from the trade war by investing in Netflix and Netflix is like, oh yeah, we're going to be a trillion dollar company within 3 years." Okay. Well, going into recession, I don't buy i.
Comments 0