저자: TomLee · 외국인
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연준 완화 사이클 진행으로 위험자산에 유동성 호재 예상. 시장 강세 근거로 ISM 50 회복 기대, 과거 연준 인하 후 20차례 중 20차례 S&P 상승 통계 제시. 주목 테마는 MAG7·AI주, 비트코인·이더리움, 소형주·금융주. 엔비디아는 PE 26배로 버블 아님 주장, 투자심리 아직 약세라 고점 아니라고 봄. 현물 암호화폐 ETF 승인 절차 간소화로 추가 자금 유입 기대.
다듬은 글
The Fed easing cycle is underway. The Fed is dovish and that's monetary liquidity. That should be good for risk assets. We also think the Fed wants CEO confidence to recover which we would measure through the ISM moving back above 50 because that'll boost employment. The spread of mortgages to tenure should fall which should boost housing and he's reducing the benefit of owning cash.
it's getting less yield and that's going to push cash off the sidelines and that's risk on. So in a simple way I think the three things to focus on would be MAG 7 and AI stocks, crypto which is Bitcoin and Ethereum and then interest rate sensitive groups like small caps and financials. But I would say, you know, historically the the the initial bigger effects tend to be monetary liquidity and the fact that cash is coming off the sidelines.
Since the Fed announced its cuts, the leadership has come from crypto, Ethereum, and Bitcoin. That's very similar to what happened in 2024 when the Fed cut in September after an extended pause. Today, as crypto investors continue to speculate if the bull run will commence in October and if we can expect to see a price increase in Bitcoin and Ethereum in the coming weeks, this crypto cycle is heating up and Tom Lee remains bullish with a parabolic rise in the last few months of 2025.
. Bitcoin has been trading more like a risk asset lately, meaning if the market recovers, Bitcoin is expected to surge alongside it. But the uncertainty is key here. If the market remains stuck in limbo, Bitcoin could face short-term pressure. Bitcoin's price currently sits just over 109,500, still down almost 3% in the past week.
. I wanted to start uh this video by talking about the macro because the Fed easing cycle is underwaying. The Fed announced a 25 basis point cut on Wednesday. And it was dovish in my view because the Fed acknowledged not only is a a future cuts coming, which is an easing cycle, but that he acknowledged that the inflationary pressures from tariffs was less than they were expecting.
So again, more in the camp of transitory inflation. This is something that uh we had taken a view on over at Fundstrat that we expected stocks to rally post Fed and we saw we see that indeed um there was good follow through in both the NASDAQ and small caps which outperformed the S&P the NASDAQ up 1% uh in the 24 hours after the Fed announced this cut and small caps up 2 and a half%.
Now, you might wonder, will stocks continue to gain? And the answer in our view is yes. Uh, I'm citing some stats from Ryan Dietrich at Carson Group, and he points out that when the Fed cuts within 2% of all-time highs, the S&P's higher 20 of 20 times with an average gain of around 14%. Now, you're going to wonder what will outperform post Fed.
We just want to give you a simple framework. The Fed is dovish, and that's monetary liquidity. That should be good for risk assets. We also think the Fed wants CEO confidence to recover, which we would measure through the ISM moving back above 50 because that'll boost employment. The spread of mortgages to tenure should fall, which should boost housing, and he's reducing the benefit of owning cash.
It's getting less yield, and that's going to push cash off the sidelines, and that's risk on. So in a simple way I think the three things to focus on would be MAG 7 and AI stocks, crypto which is Bitcoin and Ethereum and then interest rate sensitive groups like small caps and financials. But I would say you know historically the the the initial bigger effects tend to be monetary liquidity and the fact that cash is coming off the sidelines.
The leadership has come from crypto, Ethereum and Bitcoin. That's very similar to what happened in 2024 when the Fed cut in September after an extended pause. The stocks that are most correlated to Bitcoin and Ethereum are Micro Strategy, uh, ticker MSTR, which gained 6% on Thursday, and Ethereum most leveraged stock is Bitmine, which is the largest holder of Ethereum in the world, and that gained 5%.
Many of you might think markets are in a bubble because the Fed's cutting near all-time highs. But as we pointed out, that's happened many times. In 20 of 20 times, stocks still gained after that. But I think the way to think of it is to to think about Nvidia, which happens to be a granny shop. But as you can see, Nvidia's PE is 26.6 times.
Now, do I think that's expensive? I don't. First of all, as you can see on this chart, it's it's in the middle of its range over the last 5 years. But keep in mind, Costco and Walmart trade at 48 times and 34 times earnings. These are far less scarce and unique than Nvidia. Nvidia is the most scarce company in the world today because they make a chip that every AI company needs.
So until Nvidia trades at the same multiple as Costco, I think Nvidia is not in a bubble. Well, in 1998, September 98, Cisco was at $16 and 55 times Ford earnings. Why am I setting September 1998? Well, that's similar to 2025. The Fed was on an extended pause and then they cut in September. In the following 12 months, Nvidia went to $80 per share and its PE went to 210 times.
So, its stock went up 5x and the PE went up 4x. Now, that's what I call a bubble. We're not there yet with Nvidia today at 26 times forward earnings. More importantly, look at sentiment. The AI net bulls less bears is still negative. There's more bears than bulls at an all-time high. In fact, we've had seven weeks now where markets have made an all-time high and yet sentiment is negative.
You can't really say we're at top if investors are bearish at the highs. So, let's talk about granny stock performance. The top five performers of the past week are Oracle, Tesla, Vistra, Lamb Research, and Palunteer. Now, they're all AI related, but Oracle, of course, surged on good earnings. And Tesla is gaining because Elon Musk made a a pretty big insider buy of a billion dollars.
The worst five performers were Garmin, Amazon, Robin Hood Markets, Cadence Design Systems, and Netflix. Some of this is profit taking, especially a stock like Cadence. And in terms of themes, the best performing theme was energy and cyber security led by Palanter and Vistra and G Genova and labor shortage which is Oracle Tesla and Lamb Research.
Seasonality also worked. Again, Oracle was flagged as a seasonal trade as was Palanteer. But Palanteer and has been a grain shot for a long time as well as Oracle. &; The ETFs for example which have already purchased about $20 billion of Bitcoin year to date. Uh Micro Strategy that's another close to $20 billion coming in.
And then of course a host of these other digital asset treasury vehicles that are bringing fresh capital into the industry purchasing spot crypto commodities like Bitcoin. And so in my opinion that's going to be coupled with just the macro environment whether it's inflation labor markets etc. That kind of risk on sentiment is what I think is driving a lot of the price action.
There isn't some kind of very crypto idiosyncratic factor that's really promoting like a huge run. And at the same time, I think because of that, we're not seeing any kind of systemic risk or points of concern that would cause me to think like we're entering bubble territory and that it's going to pop for some particular reason.
So, I think right now people are just pretty bullish. They're positioning themselves perhaps neutrally to positively long crypto. And that's what we're seeing play out. And I want to focus on crypto ETFs because the SEC approved proposals from major exchanges to change its listing standards for exchange traded products.
SEC Commissioner Hester Purr said that the new process would reduce the time and resources required to bring new ETs to market. Explain what this rules change means for spot crypto ETFs like the XRP and Dogecoin funds that came to market today. Yeah. So, straightforwardly, all exchange traded funds have to go through this kind of rulemaking process where they have to apply for permission because there is no uh like legislatively clear path for an exchange traded fund to come out to market um the way that you might see like a normal company go through an IPO process.
And so, they all go through this kind of application process. And what we've seen through crypto really over the last decade was this long drawn out process of applying for the ETF. And I'm talking about the Bitcoin ETF here. Uh you apply for the ETF and then there's some rationale or reason that was given for the denial and each time we went through this application process.
Um we would see a different reason for that. And the industry was slowly curing all these difficulties and whatnot up until of course we had the Bitcoin ETFs launch early last year. And so what happened now with this new like ETF rule process if you will is just full clarity for the industry. that is if you want to launch an exchangeraded fund on these commodities uh what are the requirements or prerequisites whether it's an active futures trading market where contracts exist uh on CME for example for some of these commodities and whether that basically gives permission for new vehicles to come out without this long drawn out kind of discovery process of guessing and checking whether these products can come to life.
So, what do you think will change now for crypto ETFs, especially given there are still several applications pending with the SEC for ETFs tied to different altcoins, including Litecoin, for example? I mean, I think having this kind of like standard approach to analyzing the ETFs or the applications that is, is going to allow them to come to market faster.
And to the extent that there are new coins coming into it, it's again, it's not like you can just list any coin at this point. Some of these rules have different criteria in place, like for example, does an existing futures market exist traded on a on an exchange like the CME Group? And um and so I think you're just going to have a host of different ETF products on known commodities where these conditions are already met, where they're not going to have this long drawn out process.
They're going to come to market more quickly and they're going to be vehicles for additional capital to move into some of these, you know, allcoin effectively spot commodities. And so, you're probably going to see like a natural bid in some of these, I think, through these new ETF products. &.
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