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Look, our guess is that this AI party started at about 9:30 p.m. It's about 11:30 p.m. now. If you look at how more and more companies are joining the club, it's not just Nvidia and Jen founded AMD, Palantir, Snowflake. And we think this party will go on until about 4:00 AM. The bears will continue to watch this party through the glass windows.
They will go up to their hotel rooms, read a book. The Bulls and Bears will meet at 6:00 AM. Bulls have a much better evening than bears. We still spend less than 15% on AI. I think that's right. I think investors continue to underestimate the scale and scope of the AI revolution. This is just the beginning.
I mean, for every dollar spent on an Nvidia chip, there's an $8-$10 multiplier on the rest of the technology. Look, Nvidia is obviously the golden child. They are the ones fueling the AI revolution , but AMD will be a huge player. And I think as things progress, like Lisa Su, which shows even more how they're going to develop the situation.
And it's not just Nvidia and AMD, even if you look at where Intel is today. No one would have seen this 18 months ago or 2 years ago. But there are opportunities in the money that is spent . I think they are a key part of this whole trade. For example, if you look at Nebius, which we have to be, you know, we were big fans.
If you look at what's happening, you know, Coreweave and others. I think they will play, I would say they will play an increasingly important role in the development of AI. In terms of what we see from this. But it looks like it will cost a lot of money. This will require patience. But, if you start, especially with this last quarter, and this is because of the intertwining of results, I know that these are kind of inflection quarters.
Yes, that's a great idea. But also, I think in this last quarter you're starting to see monetization from hyperscalers. You've seen the monetization of Microsoft, Google, Amazon. So, I think this is an important inflection point that we're starting to see. Look, this is a rebound because the problem is that if these companies, let's say companies like us, spend less on capital expenditures.
And free cash flow will be 30% higher than expected on the street. Stocks are falling , in my opinion. Because in this arms race, it all comes back to you building the Vegas Strip in 1955. There is one Streep. You, as a technology company, need to make sure you have your place on the Strip. Otherwise, you can spend less and then you're in Reno.
Right. But also remember that if you go back to TVs, like, a few years from now, like any five-year-old TV that you go to CES or whatever, that thing costs about 45 grand, okay? And then suddenly, as if you forget, three months later it was worth 3,500. Six months later, I'm just saying the cost of tokenization will go down.
I don't consider this initial development phase, it's extremely expensive. But it's important to understand that this is the life cycle of technology. First, technology always outpaces regulation. Protective barriers to self-regulation will be put in place, and that , in my opinion, is happening now.
But you don't want government officials who still use flip phones and Blackberries dictating innovation in this country. And for the first time in 30 years, the US is ahead of China in technology. Regarding the security issue with Dario and, you know, all the hype we've seen since then , I just think if we slow down, China will win.
China is not slowing down. And I think that's partly due to what's happening right now that the industry is putting together . Because, like Jensen, Nadella, they, I think, have much more sensible views on where this is going. I would say that for the first time in 30 years, the US is ahead of China when it comes to technology.
That's really the driving force behind what I think will continue for another two to three years in this tech bull market. And I think sometimes you can't get carried away with a lot of the negative narrative from the bears that caused 10 of the last two downturns. Stop. Jensen Huang just said the scariest thing an AI CEO could say out loud.
He told CNBC that there is a capital shortage that is holding back the development of artificial intelligence. He insisted that the issue would be resolved, but the market heard the scary part. Within hours, the Nasdaq fell due to rising Meta and Tesla costs. And shares of Nvidia, the most valuable company on Earth, fell more than 4% in trading today.
When a shovel seller says people are running out of money for shovels, pay attention. So, over the next few minutes, I'll walk you through all of the Nvidia titles that came out today. Some are scary. Some are strange. One, to be honest , is a bit funny. But one of them is much more important than the others.
Almost no one talks about it , and it's not a GPU. Let's start with the blood on the floor. Nvidia was trading around $212 today. This is a drop of more than 4% in one session. And one of the resources, Traders Union, put a lot of that on US export controls. That's why it hurts. Washington is limiting which artificial intelligence chips Nvidia can sell to China.
According to research firm IDC, Nvidia's share of the Chinese market for artificial intelligence chips for data centers fell to 34% in the first half of this year. 34% on the market , which Jensen says is worth $50. And who is eating this lunch? Huawei. Jensen has been complaining about this for a long time.
He says the rules effectively handed the Chinese AI market to Huawei on a platter. Imagine that you run the best restaurant in town. Then the city says you can't serve half of your customers. Your competitor across the street suddenly has a line out the door. This is Nvidia in China now. Okay, but if Nvidia can't freely sell its products to China, where does the growth come from?
Remember this thought , because the answer is hidden in the title, which most people missed. First, let me show you a strange story. There is a company called Securitize. It took real Apple and Nvidia shares and placed them on the Solana blockchain as tokens. The idea was simple. Trade stocks like cryptocurrency, pay in stablecoin.
Sounds futuristic, doesn't it? Well, reports suggest that Securitize's own shares have fallen sharply since then . DL News reports a 38% drop since the listing of these shares on Solana. So , the company that's trying to make Nvidia's stock cooler is having a harder time than Nvidia itself. It's like opening a gym and then pulling your hamstring on the first day.
Okay, now the important part. I want you to play a quick game. Look at today's headlines. Export controls, tokenized stock failure, new server racks from Dell and Supermicro, bullish note from BNP Paribas, bigger deal with Mercedes-Benz on autonomous driving. Which one do you think is most important for Nvidia's future?
Choose one. Record it. I think most people choose the story with China. But I think the real answer lies in the boring-sounding title. Nvidia is pushing hard into the processor business. Yes, the processor, the chip that everyone forgot about once GPUs became cool. That's why. Artificial intelligence is moving from chatbots to agents.
Agents don't just answer you, they take action. They call tools, they run code, they search for data, they check their own work. And Nvidia says that all these small steps between model calls are performed on the processor. Imagine a GPU as a thinking brain. The processor is the hands that do the actual work.
And now my hands can't keep up. So the dear brain sits and waits. Nvidia's answer is a chip called Vera. This processor is said to have been created specifically for artificial intelligence agents. They even built a rack filled with 256 Vera processors. Nvidia claims that a single rack can run over 22,000 agent environments simultaneously.
And today's headlines suggest that partners are lining up . Dell is said to be releasing Vera processor offerings. Additionally, it's the first rack built on Grok 3 chips. And Supermicro is launching the Vera rack for what it calls artificial intelligence factories. Why is this important? Processors have been the territory of Intel and AMD for decades.
If Nvidia owns the brains and the hands, it owns a much larger part of every AI agent ever created. This is a story under the Chinese noise. But wait, there's even more good news hiding in the pile. Mercedes-Benz has just extended its partnership with Nvidia in the field of autonomous driving. Its technical director called Nvidia its most important partner in automated driving.
And BNP Paribas analyst Karl Ackerman recently raised his price target on Nvidia to $345. His reason? The growth of artificial intelligence agents. Do you see the pattern? Agents continue to appear. So let's close the loop. Nvidia fell today on export concerns and broader panic around money related to artificial intelligence.
China is slipping away, and Huawei is grabbing share. The tokenized stock experiment didn't go too well for Securitize, and the headline that matters most: Nvidia is building a processor for the agent era. If this works, it will open up a huge new market. Just remember, no one knows where stocks will go next.
This is not financial advice, but here is the conclusion in one line. Scary headlines get clicks, but boring ones often promise the future. If this helped you overcome your panic, click " Subscribe". I analyze news about AI every day. And next time, I'll show you one company that could be crushed if Nvidia's bet on processors really works.
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