저자: Kevin · 외국인
요약 보기
애틀랜타 연은 Q2 GDP 나우캐스트 3.8%는 소비·투자 둔화와 무역수지 기여(수입 감소) 착시에 따른 것으로 과대해석 경계. BNY 리포트는 7월 실적·FOMC·BOJ·관세 불확실성을 지적하며 섹터 숏 포지션이 역사적 고점 근처라고 언급. 근원 PCE 음수 전환으로 인플레 우려는 완화, 다만 관세 정책 불확실성이 커져 투자 리스크가 높다고 봄. 코어위브는 데이터센터 지출 수혜로 단기 반등 가능성을 언급했으나 장기 보유에는 부정적. 엔페이즈는 금리 인하 전까지 저평가 상태에서 횡보하며 경기침체 시 35달러 가능성 언급.
다듬은 글
I'm blown away by what the Atlanta Fed just released. But you've got to know why. What just happened just happened. And more important news though, isn't this weird? Look, look how orange this is. And then like not I told you I'd have the beard to make it more orange and less I don't know what to do.
Okay. It's like it's like I'm infected with the MAGA coming over or something. But at least now I think we could say I'm like 5149, you know, like ma mga not MAGA. I don't know which half do we want, which one's I don't know. Anyway, look, here's the thing. The Atlanta Fed just came out with a crazy GDP number.
We need to talk about it. I also want to tell you what Barclays just reported uh about July. And then, of course, we'll touch on uh some of the PCE numbers, Chicago PMIs, and some of the others. I do want to mention that uh I want you to pay attention to this. I think this is this is a big trade. Now, I mentioned this in this is a snippet up here of the alpha report.
I'll just leave that right here. But what I mentioned this morning out of uh my trades, the the the trade that I really wanted to pay attention today to today was Cororeweave because I wrote, "If Cororeweave holds 1054, it could rock it. If the cues fall off a cliff, obviously be cautious, but Cororeweave feels apparently per traders to be somewhat immune from tariff drama thanks to data center overspending.
We all know that I'm I I'm of the mindset that a lot of the data center spending is is a little euphoric at this point, but that's okay. uh core is a beneficiary of that. And in the meantime, take a look at this. We got a triple bounce at the 10544 level, which is remarkable because we released this alpha report in the pre-market.
Uh and uh you know, right now we've been bobbing between four and 5% up and I think there's a shot this one could keep going. So, I'd watch for Coree to potentially get back to all-time highs. Though, be careful. I don't think it's a longtime hold. I actually think it's a longtime bag holder. Uh but if you get under 40, just know Nvidia buys under 40, at least until they spend 250 million on it.
So that's what keeps a put option in place for coreweave. Really interesting uh play in that sense. So mind you, uh we are raising the prices today on the alpha report. Uh that'll be tonight at 11:59 p.m. Try it for 30 days. You can go to meek.com, try it for 30 days. If you don't like it, cancel it.
If you like it, you keep renewing. You get in for less than a couple bucks a day. But once the price goes up, uh you will be able to lock in that low price if you sign in early or sign up early. If you wait, you can't get that old price anymore. You're stuck at the higher uh prices without a coupon.
Uh okay, so we need to look at what's going on with this GDP thing because this GDP ch uh from the Atlanta Fed is absolutely wild. Take a look at it here. The Atlanta Fed is currently forecasting that we are growing our GDP in Q2 at 3.8%. Now, this looks like this was a big oopsy dupsy dupydoodle and this was a big oh my gosh, everything's going great, skyrocketing.
I want you to be very, very cautious about overreading these Atlanta Fed GDP reads. Here's why. real personal consumption expenditures growth, in other words, what people are actually spending actually declined from 3.7% to 3.3%. So, we had a shrinkage of what people are actually spending on, which is GDP negative.
And domestic investment growth went from.2 to -1.4. For a GDP calc, this is actually a really big negative drag. Okay, then why is this chart going up, Kevin? Because the yellow, and I'll even make it green. The now cast of the contribution of net exports to second quarter real GDP growth increased from negative.64 to 1.5%.
1.45%. Okay, let me translate that to English. Basically GDP were not looking good when all of a sudden we had our trade war and we were importing a whole lot of stuff. That's because imports are subtracted from GDP. So imagine GDP is just 100 and every month you import 10. Okay. Well then your GDP is 90.
Okay, cool. GDP is 90 because we're subtracting out that 10. Well, if all of a sudden imports are 50, GDP tanks because, you know, everybody was front running the tariffs. Now people are overstocked. They don't have to import as much. So, our level of imports goes down, which means we are subtracting less from that 100 number.
It actually might look like we're like positive now because e net exports went positive. We exported more than we imported. That's basically what it's saying. That's not going to last. So the girration's super low on GDP like we analyzed then not only gold imports but also imports is probably artificially low.
Now we're on the artificially high side. So be careful of people on social doing the oh look everything's great. Be careful of that. Also I think Barclays puts together a very interesting argument. I'm going to read you what they write here really quick because I think it's it's incredible. Uh I think they put it very succinctly, should I say.
And I'm all for saving your time and respecting your time. The biggest risks in July stem from the long list of major events including the end of the pause of tariffs, Q2 earnings, the meeting of the FOMC and the BOJ. Okay, fine. Continuing on here. They are concerned that once we get Q2 earnings in July and we have no idea what the heck is going on with tariffs that earnings could really be hit hard in Q2.
Remember that most of the earnings we are getting right now actually basically all of them are still Q1 numbers. So January, February, March. Who had a bad January, February, March? Not a lot of folks. You're coming into the new year. A lot of enthusiasm, new presidency, inauguration, no tariffs yet.
Everything's great. Oh no, tariffs are coming. Okay, pull forward demand. So Barclays is pretty right on to say that. So they're really nervous about the second half of the year. Rightfully so, I believe. Actually, I'm sorry I keep saying Barclays. This is actually a BNY piece. They say we see a lack of significant long positioning and an ongoing rise in the VIX for July as evidence that investors are now aware of the risks ahead.
Our own flows for borrowing in the US show that sector shorts are near historic highs with the highest being energy and consumer discretionary and then followed by tech and others. So this is really interesting. They also say that we might be in a period of consolidation right now following the big rally that we have as we start getting kind of nervous about July coming up.
But now we have this new problem that we have to worry about. No, it's not stagflation because even the super core PCE numbers came in negative today. First time we've had negative since COVID. So, a 4-year low on inflation. It's probably too soon to actually expect to see price increases. So, I think the Fed's just going to look through this and be like, "Ah, too soon for us to care about low inflation.
You know, the tariff price inflation might not hit until Q3, second half of the year." It's true. But what does it suggest right now? Well, that low PCE read, that low core inflation read right now is going to drum up a lot more resentment and frustration against the Federal Reserve. And then the Fed is going to go, well, we need it certainty on tariffs.
But what are we getting with tariffs? Less certainty than we even had 3 days ago. Okay, look at it. 3 days ago, we're like, "All right, Trump's negotiating deals. So far, we have one deal with a surplus country and no other deals. But it's okay because come July 9th, we're going to magically have all these deals and everything's going to be hunky dory.
We're going to probably be in a better place than we are now because then at least even if tariffs are slightly higher, we'll know what the rules are and everything will be fine. We could finally base our business decisions around some kind of certainty by July 9th. So July 9th was supposed to be a certainty providing date.
Well, now because of this uh international trade court issue, we are in a place where Donald Trump is lashing out, which I suggested would be a risk factor. You know, I hoped that Donald Trump would just walk away from this. But obviously now with a stay, he's not going to. If he loses the stay, loses that case, I really hope he walks away because that would be the most bullish thing ever.
Unfortunately, now we're getting the lash out. This morning, he lashed out against China and how they're cheating. He's lashing out against courts for being these unele unelected arbiters of trade policy. They're hurting his negotiations. Now he's lashing out, his admins lashing out, threatening to use various different arcane methods within the tax codes to try to find a way to scramble together the tariffs that they want.
Maybe even worse tariffs. Now, maybe it's all part of the art of the deal. Fine. But at least in the meantime, the art of business is like, we just went from having a certainty that we would have a resolution by July 9th or at least assigned tariffs if there were no deals to crap, whatever Donald Trump does now might get overthrown and then he'll just lash out and use some other weird strategy or tear off a different product to try to get what he wants.
This is not ideal. It creates more uncertainty and unfortunately that sort of uncertainty with high valuations combined makes it a risky time to invest. if tariffs went away like yesterday morning were like oh no tariffs that's bullish you know people like oh you know like it's it's a small percentage of like vocal commenters that Kevin it's like the dumbest thing to say because if tariffs are gone you should be bullish if tariffs are what they were before I don't know maybe you're neutral you know 3 days ago if tariffs are worse you should be bearish ish.
It's it's it's simply responding to the disaster that we're dealing with in in environments. But then again, you know, who cares? Everybody could do what they want. Yeah. I actually think if you're a buy the dipper, you might actually have another buy the dip coming because of this now massive increase of uncertainty.
So, we literally went from elevated uncertainty to, oh my gosh, this is so bullish. Less uncertainty. Yay, the tariffs might be going away to courts stay. Ah, it's not over yet. Uh oh, Trump's lashing out. More uncertainty. Sucks. It really sucks. But the good news is you could still invest in house hack and diversify.
By the way, thank you to all those of you who have been. As soon as you invest, you get your 5% yield. It occurs every day from the day you invest, which is great. You know, it takes a bit for you to get your account set up and your monthly payments to start coming to you, but it's kind of awesome because once the monthly payments are set up for you, they're on autopay.
So, you know, people are getting their direct deposits every month from their 5% investment at House Hack. Uh, and it's great. You know, you get that 5% yield through conversion. Read more about it at househack.com. Then you get all the upside in the stock. We only convert if the valuation goes up. Uh, and uh, yeah, check it out over at househack.com.
We're we're . Now, what else? Well, there's also talk that Elon Musk is uh, having some self-driving Teslas around Austin, Texas. And apparently, some of these tests are going well. I'm actually really happy to hear that. I don't think robo taxes are going to be as profitable as folks are hoping, but that sounds really bullish for their robo taxi technology.
Now, maybe we'll see more as Donald Trump uh you know, so we get this certainty with tariffs and we see what happens with the big beautiful bill because there's also now talk about the big beautiful bill potentially getting uh scrapped and some people are talking about like rewriting it. I don't think that'll happen, but there'll be a lot of changes from the Senate and some of the energy policies, including cutting all these tax credits for batteries and and uh you know, other you know, solar or green energy uh items.
Some of these things might end up coming back in the Senate version of the bill, which then has to be reconciled obviously. But anyway, could be interesting. Uh you know, I know some people are like, is it time to buy the dip on end phase yet? I've been saying for a while that and I I mean for at least two years that if you're going to hold NPhase, it's cheap, but it's a crap stock in high interest rate environment.
Said the same thing over and over again for like two years now. It is a very cheaply valued stock. But then again, its growth keeps getting kicked down the road, which is bad. Now, I've also said that if we go into a recession, and I've been saying this since the middle of last year, Nphase could go to 35.
What's crazy is NFS actually went to 37 without the recession and that's because of this tax plan. So, we'll see if there's no recession and the tax plan brings back some of these tax benefits. Maybe that finally creates a bottom. But if we get a recession, look out below. Sucks. The good news is the company is a very high profit margin company when they do sell products.
But then again, we need rates to come down for people to actually care because they're comparing it to their utility rates. That's always a challenge. Anyway, if you want to see the stocks that I'm interested in, make sure you get the Alpha Report. Coupon expires tonight. If you got any questions, email us at staffbeam.com. . Good luck. Have a great weeken.
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