저자: Kevin · 외국인
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미국 국제무역법원이 해방의 날(Liberation Day) 관세를 위법으로 판결해 관세 전쟁이 끝날 가능성이 커졌다고 진단. 관세 피해가 제한적이면 경기 연착륙 가능성이 높아지며, 시장 강세 신호로 보고 약세-강세 척도를 3~4에서 5.9로 상향. 다만 밸류에이션 부담은 남음. 엔비디아 실적은 중국 칩 제외 시에도 성장이 가속되고 있다고 평가.
다듬은 글
The US Court of International Trade has now called all tariffs from Liberation Day illegal. Now, this does not mean every single tariff is illegal. And in this video, I'm going to provide what this means for the economy. Is it good for the economy? Could there still be bad? And what does it mean for the stock market and actually investing in businesses?
Let's get started. Quick heads up. I did yesterday hear the news within two minutes and I sent out a tweet. You can always follow me there at Realme Kevin or a post, whatever you want to call it. However, I did not make a video last night because I was spending time with Mr. Jack uh in Humboldt at the Redwoods.
We were having a great evening last night and I thought, you know what, it is uh it is up to Jack or I should say it is Jack is deserving uh of us having a really fun time together. So, we had an excellent time together yesterday. Uh, hence why I uh I didn't want to make a video until uh the next morning.
We got back around midnight yesterday. It was uh it was really fun. We really enjoyed it. So, uh anyway, let's get into the content. All right, look. Here's the scoop. This is really damn bullish. Okay, I'm just going to give it to you straight right up front. This is very bullish because since February, I've made it very clear on this channel that the best case scenario is that everything is walked back and the damage that was done to our economy.
We just end up praying is limited. Since then, we've also had underlying pretty dang strong data. The jobs market held up. We haven't seen any real weakness in the jobs market at all. Now, the FOMC or the Federal Reserve, they said in their minutes yesterday that they're really concerned that the jobs market is going to be substantially weaker by the end of the year, mostly because of tariffs.
That right now the labor market was sound and resilient, but that both inflation and the jobs market could be severely damaged by the end of the year and essentially could dunk us into a recession. That's very bad. We don't wish that upon anyone. And so we've been very clear that tariffs are bad. Now to this a lot of people respond, unsub, dislike.
If tariffs are bad, why do other countries use them? All right, look, I made a whole video on that. Okay, you could you could look it up. Why tariffs are bad? Meet Kevin. I'm not going to rehash it here because today they might be at least in a significant part over. Now, I've been remarkably consistent.
There are some morons who like to say, "Oh, but Kevin, you change your titles." Well, yeah, duh. That's called me covering other analysts and news. And I comment, "Here's what these people are saying. Here's what Barclays are saying. Here's what JP Morgan's saying. Uh, here's what retail thinks." Right?
And so, we go and provide these perspectives from both sides. We add my commentary. Now, personally, I've been sitting probably below a four on my sort of bear bull scale, uh, of a scale of 1 to 10. 10 being buy everything, one being sell everything. I've been sitting in the threes, you know, high twos and threes range during this tariff disaster, and I've been below a five since last July.
Well, today with this international court of of trade ruling, for the first time in a long time, I'm bumping my bear bull scale to 5'9 because as long as now the economic damage of the tariffs we've already had and the backlash from Trump is limited, then the only thing weighing on markets now, in my opinion, are longerterm, less desirable valuations.
I wonder in other words how much of this has already been priced in so to speak. How much of all the tariffs are going to go away this year is already built in and reflected in the market. But I want you to consider the following. This likely ends the tariff war. Obviously that's speculation. Donald Trump, however, has a door here to say he tried.
He can then blame unelected judges. He could say he tried to collect more tariff revenue for America to pay for taxes and you know or or pay pay for income taxes and get rid of our personal income tax. But this is a door for him to like Doge point the finger at somebody else like Elon with Doge and walk away.
Elon with Doge says, "Oh, well, doesn't look like Congress is going to implement the cutting powers that Doge got away with and now needs legisl legislative approval for. Oh well, we tried our best. Going to go back to my businesses now." And then you look at the cuts that Doge has done and the fact that they have been relatively few outside of like DEI cuts, which is really a change in priorities, right?
The cuts have been pretty few. And even when you include DEI, they've they've been on the small side. It's actually bullish for the economy. Two trillion dollars of cuts from Doge would be bearish for the economy because of the magnitude of job loss. You know, two job two workers lose a job for every one federal worker that's unemployed.
That's a three uh person loss and a significant impact uh to our labor market at a time where the labor market's already been weakening for about a couple years now. Now, whether that's because of AI or an underlying growth decline, not entirely clear, but the removal of tariffs could potentially let us stick that soft landing and start rounding out and take off again.
I feel like we are a plane that literally has been slowly coming in for this landing. You know, the landing's here and slowly coming in. And if we crash on that runway, it's recession. What we just got is the pilot going full power. And so now the question is, do we have enough momentum left that we could round out and escape that that landing at all and go to a no landing scenario or is it too late and are we going to tail strike?
I don't know. that and because of valuations is why I see it at a 59 but that is on the bullish side of the scale that is responding to the data and it's also pricing in the fact that we know while Donald Trump is going to blame unelected judges for this Donald Trump can use sectoral tariffs still so he could lash out and say something like that's it all toys all furniture all TVs all smartphones 80 80% tariffs I don't think so though I I think Donald Trump just lost a lot of his negotiating power.
His negotiating power literally evaporated. We've had one trade deal with a country that we have a trade surplus with. Everything else has not resulted in a trade deal. Instead, we've gotten negotiations. In other words, delays. Okay, 90-day delay here, 30-day delay here. Oh, we'll actually turn that into a 90-day delay.
We've been all over the place. This court ruling, I do not think, is going to fall apart in an appeals court just because Donald Trump is appealing. I know people are saying that. It's okay. My opinion, and that's what I'm providing in this video, is that the it's Donald Trump's appeal is not going to hold up because I do think that tariffs are the responsibility of the legislature.
And as the court stated, the 1977 International Economic Powers Act is illegal in use for tariffs. Now, is it possible that an appellet court says, "Nah, Trump can go ahead and use it." Sure, great. That's not that that's not fantastic. But to me, that's by the dippable. By the way, have I mentioned yet that you could take some of your delicious profits from the stock market and invest them into my real estate startup house hack?
Diversify to real estate and earn a 5% yield through conversion and then go check out our disclosures and our investment opportunity for nonacredited investors over at house hack.com. businesses can finally start I would say to about a 90% degree saying all right over the the next 6 months we'll probably be completely over this tariff drama we'll have crystal clear clarity on sectoral tariffs let's now focus on Q3 Q4 where people usually like to spend a lot of money as long as that consumer keeps showing up the way they have been the better the Federal Reserve is concerned that the second half of the year is when all the tariff drama hits.
But can we now look through it? Think about it. We've already seen S&P earnings revisions down now down from like 10% growth to 5% growth. Jamie Diamond thinks 0% growth and some other bears think we should actually be revised to negative 5% growth. But that's fair based on tariffs. I mean, when you open up CNBC this morning, you see, oh my gosh, earnings revisions in the toilet for Best Buy.
It's not just Best Buy, okay? It's it's companies throughout the entire country. Now, of course, we have optimism coming from Elon Musk that, hey, we've already been doing Model Y robo taxi tests or trials in Austin, Texas. This is this is fantastic. This is wonderful to hear. And a lot of people are looking to price in EPS growth for Tesla.
Wall Street has already revised up the EPS growth rates for Tesla from 28 to 30% to like 41%. So, there is clear enthusiasm that over the next few years, earnings are going to grow. This is good. That's Tesla just as an example. But when you see that kind of EPS turn, stocks like to go up and I think that's one of the reasons why we've seen Tesla do so well.
Now, another thing that's done really well so far has of course been Nvidia, which I'll just briefly mention here in just a moment. Give you a bottom line on this. But I want you to think this. Yes, Liberation Day illegality could get appealed. Yes, we could get massive lash outs from Trump on sectoral tariffs, but we really just killed the 90-day catalysts for the beginning of July, July 9th.
We killed that tariffs, the the tariff liberation day 2.0 assignment of tariffs. Yes, again, we could still get some tariffs, but I find this remarkably bullish. The question now is how much damage was done during this period of time? And can we round out? I am optimistic that the answer to that is yes.
I'm also optimistic that the jobs market can hold through this if it starts cracking, which we'll know certainly by October. It could have been too late. We could have caused too much damage. And well, this will be Trump's recession. Now, of course, the conditions for this recession were already in place beforehand, but frankly, when Trump was elected, there was so much enthusiasm in the economy that we would have likely gotten away from the recession at that point had it not been for tariffs.
So, it's sort of like going into the Trump presidency is like, oh man, we might be going into recession. Trump presidency creates all this euphoria. It's like, okay, this is actually really good for the economy. Oh, and the tariffs. Oh, you ruined it. That's my POV. All right. I think I've been crystal clear with that.
Now, I understand that sort of opinion may cost me subscribers because oh my gosh, how dare you say something that you don't like about Trump, but my goal is as in my opinion somebody educated in economics and in markets, this is my POV. Take it for what it's worth. Now, Nvidia earnings yesterday, look, 30 basis point miss on data center with a 10 percentage point miss on gross margin.
Totally being blamed on China. And they're right. How do we know they're right? Well, because they're not forecasting the inclusion of $8 billion of revenues going to China in Q2. And they're still forecasting a growth of 2% or 8% annualized in Q2. Now, that's really low for Nvidia. But if you add in the 8 billion to see what Nvidia's growth would be like if you included those Chinese chips again in Q2, their Q2 guide would actually be up 20% for the quarter or 80% for the year.
That means growth has actually accelerated at Nvidia absent these Chinese chips. So when Nvidia says demand is incredibly strong, I don't actually think when he says demand is incredibly strong, I don't actually think he's wrong. Now, I'm going to be talking a whole lot about stocks and stocks that I think are cheap and everything.
Uh, and I want to talk to you about those. I'm going to give you a little bit more color on Nvidia here, but something to consider is tomorrow evening, we are raising the prices for the Meet Kevin Alpha Report. Use the coupon code that's available. It's meet Kevin.com. Join the alpha report. Join the course member live streams.
I'd love to have you there. Okay, so gross margins back to 72% versus the 71.7% expected on forecast. Yes, again we've got those write downs because of China. First quarter automotive revenue was actually down 1%. That was one I'm not going through everything here, just some of the highlights that I think are very unique.
I was actually surprised that some of that automotive revenue is down by 1%, but obviously it's not a big driver. It's only half a billion dollars of revenue. data center is like a $40 billion revenue set, right? So, who really cares that it's down 1%? Doesn't matter to the stock at all. But to me, this is a sign that there's little sign of an AI slowdown.
I don't think that Nvidia is taking you into a recession anytime soon. And now uh it it like frankly, let's just put it this way in Nvidia is just driving massive cash flow and they're doing phenomenally well and they're continuing to hold growth and potentially even greater numbers than a lot of Wall Street thought their growth would sort of peter out too.
We'd have this really big bell curve sort of or exponential curve of growth growth growth growth and then this petering out. Well, again, adding back in those Chinese chips, 20% growth in a quarter, 80%. Phenomenal. Now, obviously, there's a lot more detail to get into, but this is my first reaction, and I can't wait to talk more about some of the companies that are just absolutely killing it.
So, if you found this video helpful, consider subscribing. This is my POV. This is absolutely bullish and the only reason the market would not go up substantially from here is that markets already saw it. Kevi.
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