저자: ParkevTatevosian,CFA · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 힐튼 월드와이드(Hilton)를 3월 매수 최애 종목으로 제시하며, 여행 수요 회복과 가격 인상 효과로 실적 개선이 수년간 이어질 것으로 봄. 빌 애크먼 포트폴리오 개요: 퍼싱스퀘어 운용자산 약 87억 달러, 보유 6종목(Lowe's, QSR, CMG, 힐튼, Howard Hughes, Canadian Pacific Railway). 이 중 힐튼이 최애 종목. 여행 지출 회복: 글로벌 여행 지출이 2019년 1.5조 달러에서 2020년 6,100억 달러로 급감, 2021년 9,000억, 2022년 약 1.1조 달러로 점진 회복. 2023년에도 수천억 달러 증가 전망. 회복 형태: V자 반등이 아닌 점진적 회복으로, 완전 회복 시점은 2025년경으로 예상. 장기간 순풍 요인. 회복 수준 전망: 동일 여행량이라도 인플레이션과 객실 요금 인상(업계 전반 두 자릿수 상승)으로 지출은 2019년 대비 15~25% 높을 것으로 봄. 수익성: 팬데믹 이전부터 영업이익률 10% 이상 꾸준, 현재 약 23.87%로 이전의 거의 2배 수준. 가격 인상 덕분. 주당순이익: 최근 12개월 희석 EPS 4.52달러로 역대 최고 수준. 여행 회복이 완료되면 추가 상승 여지. 영업현금흐름: 팬데믹 전 약 15%에서 현재 19.16%로 회복, 향후 수년간 상승 지속 전망. 밸류에이션: 선행 PER 25.49배, 최근 1년 범위 하단 부근으로 비싸지 않다고 평가. 리스크: 영상에서 명시적 리스크 언급은 거의 없음. 회복 지연 가능성은 '점진적 회복'의 장기화로만 간접 언급.
다듬은 글
what's my favorite Bill Ackman stock to buy for March I'm going to tell you that in this video I'm also going to look at five different metrics that support my reasoning for why this is my favorite Bill Ackman stock to buy in March so let's get right into it so Bill Ackman Pershing Square Capital Management he runs a portfolio worth over 8.7 billion dollars and he owns just six stocks in his portfolio Lowe's qsr CMG Hilton worldwide Howard Hughes Corporation and Canadian Pacific Railway out of these six stocks Hilton worldwide Holdings is my favorite stock to buy for March and I'm gonna show you why it's my favorite stock to buy right now so stay tuned so firstly I have here pulled up Hilton's Revenue growth over the last several years going back to 2014 and two things jump straight out at me is the crash in 2020 of course during the past earlier stages of the pandemic one of the things that suffered the most was travel right according to statista travel spending collapsed from 1.5 trillion in 2019 all the way down to 610 billion in 2020.
so a nearly one trillion dollar decrease in spending on hotels and resorts worldwide and of course Hilton worldwide suffered as a result of that Revenue falling almost 80 percent in a couple of quarters there so the opposite of that is now helping Hilton worldwide as economies have reopened folks have all these pent-up demand for travel because they delayed a lot of trips during the earlier stages of the pandemic so now they're making up for that travel spending rebounded from 610 billion to 900 billion in 2021.
so from 2020 to 2021 it rebounded by about 300 300 billion in from 2021 to 2022 it rebounded another 200 billion so we went up to 1.1 trillion in 2022 so in 2023 forecasts are for another several hundred billion dollar increase in hotel and travel spending worldwide and so Hilton is going to benefit from that Trend and what I've noticed and and what I'm seeing from The Rebound in travel is that it's like a light dimmer slowly increasing up it wasn't like the quick v-shaped recovery that some people were expecting where it was quickly going to bounce back from the decrease remember I said it fell to 600 billion some people thought that it was going to bounce back right back up to 1.5 trillion in one year that's not what's happening instead what's happening is a slow recovery back up to those levels so from 600 billion to 900 billion from 900 billion to 1.1 trillion and this year it's expected to go up another couple hundred billion so this recovery is going to be prolonged over several years but undoubtedly it seems like it's going to recover higher than the 1.5 trillion it was at 2019.
higher than what it was at 2019. why do I say higher because the same amount of trips are going to lead to a nearly 15 to 25 percent more in spending because of inflation room rates across the board across the industry are higher by double at least double digits across all of the travel companies that I follow so if you're traveling the same amount that you were traveling in 2019 you're probably going to be paying anywhere between 15 to 25 percent more for the trip and so Hilton worldwide is going to benefit from the return of folks traveling to the quantity and then the total spending is going to be higher because the average room rates are much higher right by 15 to 25 percent so and this is not going to be just a one-year thing where it's like okay it's going to recover in 2022 and that's it no this is you know I don't expect the full recovery to happen until about 2025 where overall spending eclipses where it was before the outbreak so that's a several years-long Tailwind that Hilton worldwide has and um that's not yet fully reflected in what uh people are expecting from this stock so I can see why Bill Ackman likes it and this is um that's uh partly explains why it's one of my favorite Bill Ackman stocks another reason why I'm liking this is look at the up here even before the outbreak you can see it was steadily increasing its operating profit margin and the operating margin was at a nice level consistently above 10 percent approaching 20 even before the outbreak so the outbreak of course it collapsed as Revenue collapsed but then it's recovered and it's operating profit margin is well above nearly twice the level it was at before the outbreak at 23.87 percent this is partly due to the fact that they were able to put in a lot of price increases right so they're operating at a much more profitable level than they were before the outbreak and now they're recovering the amount of people that are coming it's slowly recovering to where it was before the outbreak diluted earnings per share over the trailing 12 months again it was nice even before the outbreak and then the crash but now look at that diluted earnings per share of 4.52 cents is higher than it ever was meanwhile the travel recovery is still not complete so imagine where earnings per share could get to once it returns to the pre-pandemic level of travel spending for consumers and then cash flow from operations again it was very solid even before the outbreak at roughly 15 percent and now cash flow from operations is recovering almost straight upward at 19.16 and this is likely to continue moving higher as this rebound continues over the next several over the next couple of years finally the stock is not very expensive right you might think like oh it's got these excellent prospects for the next couple of years obviously the stock is going to be extremely expensive that's not the case the stock is trading at a forward price the earnings ratio of 25.49 which is near the lower end of where this has traded for going back in the last year you look at that it's on the downward and it's trading at 25.49 so this is why this Bill Ackman stock is my favorite out of his six stocks to buy this one Hilton worldwide is my favorite Bill Ackman stock to buy in March now if you're looking for more stocks to buy I've created a top 20 list of stocks to buy for 2023.
I'm going to link that in this video at the end it's going to be either right here or right here so click on that if you want a bigger list of stocks to buy thank you for watching and I'll see you over there
Comments 0