저자: Clóvis · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 영상은 주식 투자 교훈과 Oi(통신사) 관련 견해를 다루며, 대상 자산에 대한 명확한 가격 방향 예측은 없다. 첫째, 채널 주인은 XP 행사에서 발표된 Michael Bloomberg, Larry Fink(BlackRock CEO), Chris Gardner의 강연을 소개하며 성공한 사람들의 사고방식을 배우라고 권한다. Fink는 금융 미디어가 노이즈와 변동성을 만든다고 비판했다고 언급한다. 둘째, 구독자 질문에 답하며 Oi의 순부채 레버리지(6.6배에서 3배 목표) 감축을 위해 자회사 Vital 지분을 상장(IPO) 매각할 계획이 있다고 설명한다. 발행 주식 매각 규모와 시기는 2024년 하반기쯤 정해질 것이라고 말한다. Vital 기업가치는 700억~800억 헤알 수준일 것이라는 자신의 추정을 밝히면서 Abreu의 540억 추정은 보수적이지 않다고 평가한다. 셋째, 지분 희석이나 주식 수 감소는 문제가 아니며 경영진의 계획 일부일 뿐이라고 본다. 투자자는 전략 계획의 실행을 지켜보고, 불편하면 주식을 팔면 된다고 조언한다. 넷째, André의 질문에 답하며 Oi가 Cisco의 최대 경쟁자가 될 수 있다고 본다. 고속 광섬유 연결, 디지털 솔루션 패키지, 보안 서비스, 전국 40만km 광섬유망이 경쟁 우위라고 설명한다. 다섯째, 이 영상에서 언급된 종목의 방향성 예측은 없으며, 시장 전반에 대한 구체적 가격 전망도 제시되지 않았다.
다듬은 글
Hello, how are you? Welcome to the "Living Off Income" channel. Subscribe to the channel, leave your like, share with your friends, follow us on Instagram @viverrenda.com and our new channel here on YouTube, " Coffee with Stocks," help! Just read the format: administration, business consulting, investing in the stock market.
Since 2006, I created "Living Off Income" to share with you a little of my professional history while the investor binge-watches the videos. If you like it, leave a like and share with your friends. This week we emphasized some super natural content from some conferences and lectures that took place at XP.
XP is a very interesting event that XP has been doing for ten years, bringing together scholars, authorities in the world of economics, and entrepreneurs. So, these are always good encounters, and we need to have an open mind to always be learning. We need to have the humility to understand that we have something to learn from others.
That's humility, or truth. It's always understanding that you can learn from others. You need to have qualitative listening skills, know how to listen deeply to what the other person is saying, evaluate, reason, and arrive at your own conclusions. This is important: critical thinking. To arrive at your own conclusions and at the same time share what you know.
We learned from other people. So I've been watching Expert XP these past few days, and they have a lot of very interesting content available. I tried to select what impacted me the most, and I'm sharing it here. So this week we've already made some very rich and interesting videos. I don't know if you've had the opportunity to see them; comment here if you watch the videos.
I brought a bit of the lecture given by Michael Bloomberg, a billionaire with a net worth of 60 billion dollars, one of the richest men in the United States, owner of Bloomberg, a technology and data company for the financial market. And we brought some of his reflections and his testimony at XP. Besides him, I also tried to make a video about Larry Flynn, the CEO of BlackRock Blackhawk, the largest asset manager in the world.
They have 10 trillion dollars under their management. So imagine the strength of a Blackhawk; its movements can cause waves of considerable strength and magnitude in the financial markets. It's 10 trillion dollars, and it's worth mentioning that two or three Blackhawk investment funds are... It's important for you to know this, so I also tried to bring some ideas and reflections.
Like reading Finn, who is looking at the current scenario of the world economy and the perspectives for the world of investments. It's worthwhile to watch Michael Bloomberg's video because it shows the thinking of a billionaire, or the thinking of a successful person, a great entrepreneur, and also a businessman.
In short, it's because of who he is, not the fact that he is today the owner of the largest investment company in the world, which has trillions of dollars under its control. So he has enormous power to influence markets, to influence companies, to influence governments, right? So it's very important for us to understand the minds of these great entrepreneurs and investors because that's how I learned, I learned from those who are successful, I learn from those who know, from those who have achieved, from those who have made things happen.
We have to learn from these people, and not keep listening to chatter and social media noise, wasting time on nonsense from the financial media. By the way, Larry Finn caught my attention because he was a critic, or rather, a harsh critic of the financial media, okay, and reporting on American media, but I should say that we can bring the same idea to the financial media.
Wow, that financial media, he criticized a lot. From my point of view, these are people who are very concerned with creating noise, creating confusion, creating volatility in the market—these are the words of the Lord of Blackhawk. So, these two are very cool, and these two videos that we shared here, and Chris Gardner is also a show.
I believe you've seen the movie *The Pursuit of Happyness* with Will Smith; it was based on Chris Gardner's life story, right? So, he talks about entrepreneurship, overcoming adversity—a person who lived on the streets, was imprisoned, became unemployed, and his struggle to make ends meet, to survive, to take care of his son because his wife separated from him, and today he's a mega-millionaire with a net worth of 600 million dollars.
So, there are many lessons. I don't know if you 've watched them, but I recommend you watch the three videos and then comment on whether you watched them. It's important to immerse yourself in the world of knowledge, learning from those who made things happen, from those who have a success story, from those who have won.
In life, we have to follow these people. Oh, and don't stay on the side of the failures, the mediocre, the incompetent; the world is full of them. Stay away from them. Kisses to the back, very well, let's discuss some things left here on the Denis Garcia channel. Good evening Clóvis. Congratulations on your excellent work on the channel.
I thank you for sharing your knowledge and experiences. I thought you would be right to talk about Camille Faria regarding the net debt. Regarding the limits of the net debt, she said that for this indicator to remain at a sustainable level of three times, Oi plans to sell a percentage of shares in Vital.
That is, if this level of six times is considered impractical, then 6.6 times is detrimental to the company's operations with interest payments. So this deleveraging will be important. I didn't like the information about the decrease in leverage being necessary, but it's through the sale of another percentage of Vital.
This didn't bother me. I hope you will see a small share. It's my utmost respect for your work. Thank you very much. Look, Denis, it's like this: first, we have to understand that it's in Oi's plan since they talked about infrastructure. Then it became a secret that they would do an IP, or it's in Oi's planning, so we don't have any news in this aspect.
And what Is this a hip or a company? It's good, I own a company, I... but BTG... we are two partners in a privately held company, Vital. We two partners decided that in 2025 we will take this company public, that is, we will take it to the Stock Market and sell shares. What shares will we sell? Our shares.
So I will make the preferred shares available, I will sell 100 percent of the preferred shares to the market because they will not give preference in the payment of dividends when the company is paying dividends, so I will sell 0.5 percent of my preferred shares and I will also sell a portion of my common shares, that is, those that give the right to vote, so I will also reduce my percentage.
My partner and I will do this in what proportion? In proportion to the strategic convenience of each of the parties. BTG will say how much it will put up for sale, and Oi will say how much it will put up for sale, and probably this percentage will be a percentage that makes sense from a financial point of view so that Oi brings its debt from 6.6 times to three times, which is the multiple it considers adequate, and that's it.
How much will the weak or Vital be worth? When the worst happens, that's still an unanswered question. The other estimate, and Abreu's, is that it will be worth 54 million. He took the initial value of 5.4 billion and multiplied it by 10, arriving at 54 billion. 5.4 billion in 2024 and multiplied it by ten, arriving at 54 million.
And that's all I believe. I don't believe he was being conservative. I think it will be at least 70 billion. Putting a multiple around 13 times the EBITDA, we'll have at least 70 billion. That's the idea I have, at least 70 billion in 2025. Very well, I'm talking about 80 billion, a 42.1 percent stake.
So, if it's 70 million, we'll be talking about almost 28,000 that today will be their right, right? They can take, I don't know, from those 28,000, they might want to take 10 million to amortize their debt and still have a stake of... 18 million will be a moment, it will be the company's planning. So if that bothers me, no, I think it's part of the dynamics of the business world.
It doesn't cause me any strangeness; it's been in the planning since I started investing. There was already a horizon that this was a path, right? It does n't disturb me, it's important, even the idea that Oi is all moving forward within a planning process, within what was thought by the company's management.
If you are comfortable with someone who is saying that, you stay with them; if you are not comfortable, you sell your shares. That's how we have to act. I do n't see reducing the number of shares as a problem. What is the measure that Oi will sell? I don't know; they will only define that, probably closer to the second half of 2024, when they will start to reflect because then they will have a better idea of the value they will have, and so on.
So, fundamentally, everything is going well. Let's remain calm and tranquil and follow the execution of the company's strategic plan. They presented the new plan for 2022-2024. We have to be following that; that's what we... What matters is that, as far as investors are concerned, our focus is on what will happen.
It will be good for Oi, it will generate value for Oi, right? When you go public, more people aren't investing, and the company will raise capital; part will go to shareholders, another part will be for reinvestment in the company itself, and that's how things move forward. And that's how companies grow, right?
So we remain calm, we monitor the execution, that's what we have to be looking at. André Breton, good evening. Do you believe that Oi will become Cisco's biggest competitor in Brazil? They work for a company where the system is protected by Cisco. And as Oi develops in this area, it will greatly increase its market share in security.
Being new to the market, it can offer attractive features such as low prices, internet packages, and more security, something that Cisco doesn't do. Look, André, I can't say yet if it will be Cisco's biggest competitor or not. But you touched on the point that yes, it will. That's Oi's great competitive advantage.
Today, Oi is in a position to offer a Plus to the market. What is this Plus? It offers high-speed connectivity. Good afternoon with low-speed connectivity. Latency, right? High-speed connection, and if it can offer fiber optics, right? And in addition, it integrates a package of products and services from Oi Soluções.
It can offer a complete package, for example, for small and medium-sized businesses. It can offer a package of digital solutions for that company. So it can offer the digitization of all the company's procedures: cash flow, inventory management, HR—all of this can be formatted by the Oi Soluções team and offer a more computerized management, let's say.
And Oi Soluções can do more than just sell the fiber optic connection. It can also integrate into this package, a separate package with the connection, the issue of health and safety, security protocols, corporate network management. So you see, it has products that it can combine with fiber optics.
No company has this differential, which at this moment, today, no company has this. This is a competitive advantage; it offers integrated packages. So this is a competitive advantage. Added to this advantage is the size that Oi has in the Brazilian territory; it has 400,000 km of fiber spread throughout Brazil.
So it has greater capillarity. So this is another difference, another competitive advantage. The expansion of the fiber optic network and the possibility of creating integrated packages, in addition to fiber optics, provides greater security and offers digital solutions for companies. These solutions are broad and comprehensive, and this is what companies can offer, putting them ahead of their competitors.
So, think about it. Did you like the video? Leave a like, share it with your friends, and until next time, bye!
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