저자: ChamathPalihapitiya · 외국인
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결론: 현재는 공급측 경기침체가 진행 중이며, 금리 인상이 수요 파괴형 경기침체를 촉발해 증시 하방 압력이 이어질 가능성이 크다. 경기 진단: 2020년 봉쇄 이전 약 2% 성장하던 경제가 봉쇄로 공급이 멈추며 공급측 경기침체가 발생했고, 막대한 현금 지원으로 수요는 남아 인플레이션이 유발됐다고 봤다. 향후 경로: 과잉 유동성이 소진되고 금리 인상으로 수요가 파괴되면 수요측 경기침체로 이어질 것이며, 자산가격 하락이 이를 가속한다. 고용 지표(실업 증가)와 신용연체 급증이 국면 전환의 신호로 제시됐다. 심리 지표: 소비자심리는 40년 만의 최대 폭 하락, right track 응답은 10%에 불과, 경기침체 인식은 약 60% 이상이다. 다만 실제 소비 행태는 여행·호텔 수요 등에서 아직 견조하다. 가계 상황: 401k 손실, 임금 실질 감소, 식품·에너지 가격 상승으로 체감 경기가 악화됐다. 모기지·상업용 부동산이 다음 충격 요인으로 거론됐다. 주식 전망: 실적 하향과 할인율 상승이 겹쳐 주식에 매수 유인이 없다고 판단했다. 연준: 인플레이션 억제에 초점을 두며 시장 반응에 덜 민감할 것으로 전망했다. 리스크: 실업 급증 시점과 신용 경색 강도가 침체의 깊이를 결정할 핵심 변수다.
다듬은 글
if you take a a big step back to the day before the lockdowns started we had a normal functioning economy that was growing by call it two percent a year and the minute that we enforced these lockdowns i actually think what we did was we started a supply side recession [ chamath giving us his prediction for the current market chamath has been pretty accurate even predicting back in january the current crash and recessionary climate we're seeing now we'll take a look at that prediction along with his investment thesis and we'll see how that's going to affect the stock crypto and capital markets over the next few months in this interview chamath tells us why he believes we haven't seen the worst of it and with the increase in interest rates we'll see a recessionary correction happen in stock and capital markets up until the end of the year make sure to stay till the end of the video to hear what chamath's prediction for the current market crash inflation and how this recession will affect the financial markets and what's coming next if you take a a big step back to the day before the lockdowns started we had a normal functioning economy that was growing by call it two percent a year and the minute that we enforced these lockdowns i actually think what we did was we started a supply side recession it's what sac said earlier so what does that mean let's just say you're a factory and you make wheels okay just make something really simple you were growing at two percent a year everything seemed hunky-dory you had employees it was fine you used to sell your products make 10 15 percent profits everything was fine and then the day after the government said you need to shut your factory down because we can't have people spending too much time close together because we need to get a handle on this pandemic okay so you shut it down and then for the next 12 or 18 months what happens that stuff sits idle these people that used to work for you get two and a half trillion dollars put into their bank accounts they spend their time doing other things and then all of a sudden people say okay it's time to start the factory up again people want to buy wheels and now all of a sudden you find that because everything all around the world was shut down there's no rubber to make the wheels there's no steel to make the axle there's no people to put them all together and so what happens well prices go up because again you gave everybody else two and a half trillion dollars so they're like well i used to pay a dollar for your wheel i'm willing to pay you two dollars now just make the wheel give it to me before you give it to somebody else so that is like the classic definition of a supply side recession and now by raising rates to some crazy amount the end of which we're still not sure about may actually then trigger the demand destruction to have a demand side recession and so i don't i don't know that we have lived in a modern point in time where both things have been true right there's been a principle of macroeconomics that you're everybody's always kind of debating is this a supply side issue is it a demand side issue we know that in covet it was a supply side issue we took all the supply out of the market and now we're trying to figure out when we exhaust you know all of the money we've given people and we destroyed demand and take the incentives for demand to go away right consumer confidence is now starting to turn what happens then well we're gonna figure that out in the next six or nine months but the thing is you have both that are true it's not as if the supply side of the economy has been fixed it's not as if everybody is running at 100 capacity it's not as if all the supply chain issues have been worked out yeah so i don't know i just think it's a very complicated situation chmath goes on to discuss the effects of 401ks being wiped out the stock market being down and the effects inflation is having on wages and those are just some of the reasons the sentiment is so negative in the market right now i mean look there's an old saying that a recession is when your neighbor loses his job and a depression is when you lose your job and the reality is we haven't had the big job losses yet it's starting we can start to see it and the number of open wrecks are getting closed and then there were those job loss numbers that just came out which were a little higher than expected so the job losses are starting but so far it's really been the step prior to that which is people are seeing their 401ks get destroyed stock markets down they're seeing their wages get destroyed by inflation food and gas prices being much higher so there's a really good reason why people are sentiment is so negative out there people feel poorer than they were before and this could get worse like he's saying jason with their nest egg in their homes getting hit i agree that's the next shoe to drop just like the commercial real estate is the next shoe to drop but i think the really big question over the next six months is what sort of job losses do we see because that really is going to be the big determinant of of how hard this recession hits it seems to me like this is sort of akin to what sax was relaying about that founder at the co2 conference which is like you know he thinks everybody else is going to you know roll up their sleeves and buckle down but he has no intention of doing it i think people um are roughly the same way and i think their behavior is well you know if things are gonna get hard i'll deal with it in the future but right now i have money in my pocket and you know if you look at airlines and how many people are trying to travel if you just look at like the cost of a hotel room if you look at what's happening this summer it does not seem like people are slowing down or tapping the brakes in any way i just think after two years of a lockdown i do think that people are anxious to re-establish some amount of normalcy and this is really the first summer where everybody writ large can be out and do the things that they were planning fake yeah last year was a little bit of a head fake and look you have two years of pent-up plans of you know 50th anniversaries and weddings and all of this stuff that's happening and so i think people are really spending money and if you look at it you know the consumer is holding up amazingly it's got to be some combination of jobs home prices um and and this inflation but this is why there has not been a downtick in demand i don't know why everybody thinks that there has been a downtick in demand there was an article today numbers yet it's not showing up in the numbers yet very subtle okay sure it is there is a subtle i actually disagree with you guys i actually think that the economy is pivoting on a dime here and it's it's starting to show up subtly in the numbers here's some other data points consumer sentiment biggest drop in consumer sentiment in 40 years that was in the last month right track run track polling only 10 percent of the country thinks we're on the right track if you poll people and ask are we in a recession something like plus 60 of the country already thinks we're in a recession there's a slight political tent to that more republicans than democrats think we're in a recession however even roughly half of democrats think we're in a recession so those are all feelings not behavior though sex we're looking at the data not the sentiment i think the behavior will catch up with the sentiment i think the behavior is i think the behavior is pivoting it's just that i think you have to dig beneath the surface and you have to look at things like retail sales things like that i'm not sure david if you look back on all the number of times consumer sentiment has dipped that the correlation to spending patterns is so uniformly predictive as we think i mean i think that there are there's a slight positive correlation i remember but i don't think it's like you know point seven five point eight one it's not that so there's this weird preference falsification that happens when you get asked what do you think is gonna happen versus what do you do yeah and i think a lot of consumers that's why they have you know we know the data in america like less than a month of savings or whatever those numbers are despite all of the sentiment analysis and all of this stuff you would think that there'd be behavior change but mostly people kind of just live in the moment and you know that that's partly because they don't have the structural support to save or other things but the reality is that most folks from what they say to what they behave there is a gap i i tend to agree with you like i think that we have been in a supply-side recession that is what has caused inflation we have to go through a process of taking all the excess money that's been put in out and when you do that we will destroy demand and then that'll trigger a demand side recession because people will asset values and we will destroy asset values so that process asset values went real quick yeah that will happen second and i hate to be the bearer of bad news but the reason why i think that we're still in the first part of this process is because people broadly speaking um still have a lot of savings because of all the stimulus checks there is still a lot of money so what how will we know maybe is the better point when all of that excess savings has been you know torn away from these people because of high prices i suspect it's when jason's first chart starts to close right so when people are you know go they're more motivated to re-enter the workforce i think that's the signal free book your signal is another one which is when credit delinquencies really start to spike it's because people then you know tapped out their savings then they tap their credit cards and then all of a sudden they become delinquent when all of those things happen you're probably now at a point where that first phase of the supply side issues are largely done and now you get to the demand destruction but all of those roads unfortunately lead to the same conclusion which is like you know equities get really under pressure there is no scenario where there's a bid to equities why would you buy something that has lower earnings in the future or why would you buy something that has a lower discount rate for profits in the future in this case both are true the federal reserve is focused on keeping inflation under control which is making investors nervous as the us economy gives conflicting signals about growth in the market while you might expect more discussion about the fed holding off on raising interest rates all indications are that the fed will be less reactive to markets than in the recent past what do you think about chamath's take on the current market comment down below
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