저자: NourielRoubini · 외국인
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결론: 비트코인은 근본 가치가 없으며 조작에 의해 가격이 움직이고, 수개월 내 폭락할 가능성이 크다. 트럼프 대통령의 국방수권법 거부권 행사와 정치 상황을 비판하며, 트럼프가 정치적 혼란을 일으키고 있다고 주장했다. 비트코인 분석: 비트코인은 통화·가치저장·자산의 조건(소득, 사용가치)을 갖추지 못한 투기적 상승일 뿐이라고 주장했다. 가격은 고래와 조작자에 의해 움직인다고 봤다. 테더(USDT) 발행이 비트코인 가격 하락 시마다 늘어나며 가격을 조작하는 데 쓰인다는 학계 연구를 언급했고, 올해 공급량이 약 160억 달러 증가했다고 제시했다. 2017년 1000→2000달러, 2018년 20000→3000달러 폭락 사례를 근거로 현재 '과열 버블' 정점에 가깝다고 봤다. 비트맥스 등 사기 사례와 법집행기관 조사가 진행 중이며, 향후 수개월 내 비트코인과 기타 암호화폐가 폭락할 것이라고 전망했다. 펌프앤덤프, 허위거래(wash trading), 선매매 등 암호화폐 시장 전반의 조작 가능성을 지적했다. 중앙은행 디지털화폐(CBDC)는 블록체인·암호화폐와 무관하며, 중앙집중형·허가형 시스템으로 기존 결제시스템을 지배할 것이고, 가짜 암호화폐를 대체할 것이라고 주장했다. 리스크: 비트코인 가격 급락, 규제·수사 확대. 출연자는 비트코인에 부정적이다.
다듬은 글
welcome back to yahoo finance live we are joined now by nouriel roubini nyu professor of economics at nyu's stern uh nouriel always great to have you on i'd like to share some breaking news that's just coming across we're getting some headlines that president trump has defied congress and has vetoed the bipartisan defense policy bill in some comments trump called the defense policy bill a quote gift to china and russia and of course i know you're someone who does look at geopolitical events and we are shaping up for a new administration in 2021 uh your reaction to this news that's just crossing well you know i mean the president is becoming an inju on everything you know he's literally trying to do a military coup uh following the advice of mike flynn and others in order to subvert the results of the election he doesn't want to pass this stimulus bill and if he doesn't we may end up in a government shutdown and now he's accusing the defense bill of uh things that don't make any sense you know he has even denied that his major hack attack came from russia he claims that he came from china without any base and if there is anything that actually can help us to push back against our strategic rivals whether russia or china nor korea or iran is going to be this defense bill so literally the guy is becoming completely an inch across the board it's just politics maybe he's trying to prepare himself to run again into 2024 maybe he's losing his marbles i don't know what's going on but pretty much everything he's doing it doesn't make any sense i would like to shift the conversation and thank you so much for sharing your thoughts on that um to cryptocurrency of course bitcoin i think the last time we had you on you got quite a bit of attention i'm just looking at uh bitcoin's price now it's above 23 500.
and you put out a tweet that the bitcoin has no place in an institutional investor or retail investors portfolio yet we continue to see big name institutional investors kind of flood the space paul titor jones for example and then you're also even anthony scaramucci and then we're also seeing uh you know the retail investors why does it not deserve a place in a portfolio i mean first of all calling it the currency is not the currency it's not the unit account it's not the means of payment it's not the single numerator it's not the stable store of value secondly is not even an asset either an asset has both income use and capital gain like bonds like stocks like real estate or like in case of precious metals uh you know they don't have you give you an income but gold gives you uh industrial use it gives you tiered as jewelry and as a capital gain well in the case of bitcoin there is no income there is no use there is no utility the only thing is a speculative self-fulfilling kind of rise and that rise is driven totally by manipulation there's been academic study suggesting that this pseudo stable coin tether is being created by fiat this year alone they increase in the supply of tiger has been another 16 billion out of the initial force so it's 20 and every time the price of bitcoin goes down literally overnight they issue more of this tether that is used literally to manipulate the price of bingo so the price of bitcoin is totally manipulated by a bunch of people by a bunch of whales doesn't have any fundamental value and like in 2017 when it went from 1000 to 2000 and then in 18 it crashed from 20 000 down to 3 000 i think we're close to the point in which this hyperbolic bubble is going to go past and it's gonna go past because law enforcement authority are having a investigation of trader and of the company behind it and in my view like in the case of bit max that was the biggest scam and criminal derivative that uh cryptocurrency house has been indicted you can have an indictment also of those who are behind that attack that when that's occurring in the next few months there'll be a crash of bitcoin and all the other cryptocurrencies they're not there um i want to break this down in several parts because i think a lot of investors with bitcoin at over 23 500 bucks today need to pay attention um why would there be i'll call it a contagion if the feds crack down on that other crypto to bitcoin and how do you look at the fact that central banks worldwide are looking at creating digital currencies are they different than what we see with the bitcoins and the other cryptocurrencies already out there well there are several academic studies including one by university of texas that showed that every time the bitcoin prices were weakening there was an issuance of this tedder there's literally a stable coin created out of fiat the there's been no audit that these cryptocurrencies backed by any assets and it's just printed by fiat used to buy bitcoin so it's actually total price manipulation there's plenty of evidence that there are other schemes of manipulating cryptocurrencies there is pump and dam schemes hundreds of channels on telegram or on whatsapp there is front running there is wash trading pretty much anything is being done for penny stock is done for crypto and bitcoin to the power of 10.
that's a totally manipulated market this is not driven by fundamental it's driven by insiders by criminal by whales by scammers that's the reality and there is evidence on it and that's why there are criminal investigation they're going to reach their climax in the next few months secondly central banks are going to introduce digital currencies but first of all these digital currencies that will have nothing to do with crypto or blockchain today every private commercial banks as a bank account with the fed we as individual or non-corp or corporation or not financial we don't have access to the balance sheet of the fed suppose that tomorrow we have access to the balance sheet of the fed that's what a central bank digital currency means is not digital money digital money already has existed for decades with bank accounts with wire transfers we have alipay where we chart pay we have venmo we have all sorts of other digital payment system so what's new is not there's gonna be digital there are thousands of digital payment system that work all over the world is that we don't have a situation where individuals like you and me have access to the balance sheet of the fed once we do we don't need to have a bank deposit for making cheap fast instantaneous transactions that are payment system that are cleared and settled instantaneously so once we have a central bank digital currency not only crypto with this junk these coins they don't have any payment used but even other digital payment system like bank deposit or them on paypal are going to be dominated by central bank digital currency and this scheme technologically has nothing to do with crypto has nothing to do with blockchain it's going to be centralized it's going to be permissioned it's going to be a system this will be private not on a public decentralized ledger so calling it crypto is not true it's a central bank digital currency it's got a revolutionized payment system that's going to destroy any pseudo cryptocurrency that is not a cryptocurrency and it's not a currency people don't know what they're talking about when they're talking about central bank digital currency they get excited they say even central banks are going to crypto just the opposite they don't know what they're talking about nouriel roubini professor of economics at nyu's stern and ceo of roubini macro associates always a pleasure to have you on uh wish you a happy holiday season thank you again
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