저자: TomLee · 외국인
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2020년 적중 사례를 근거로 2021년 증시 전망을 제시한 영상. Tom Lee는 2021년 상반기에 S&P500이 4000까지 오른 뒤 3500까지 조정받을 수 있으나 강세장의 일시적 휴지기라고 봄. 2020년 예측 적중: 3월 저점 이후 4월 S&P500 2800 돌파 예측 적중, 9월 3200 지지 후 반등, 대선 후 VIX 25 관찰 주장도 적중. 2021년 거시 전망: 기업 이익률 회복, PMI 호황, 백신 이후 소비심리 개선, 저금리 지속, VIX 16~17 하락 가능성을 근거로 제시. 다만 코로나 변수는 예측 불가능하다고 강조. 조정 시나리오: 상반기 4000 근처까지 상승 후 3500(약 15% 하락) 조정 가능. 현금 4.5조 달러가 대기 중이라 2H 추가 반등 가능. 장기 투자자는 매도 불필요, 전술적 투자자는 4000 부근에서 현금 확보 권고. 섹터: 에너지를 최선호 3개 섹터 중 하나로 꼽았으나 '도박(dice roll)'에 가깝다고 평가. 공급 제약과 수요 회복이 근거. 산업재·경기소비재가 더 명확한 선호 대상으로 언급. 가상자산: 비트코인은 금 대체 자산으로서 관련성이 커졌고 포트폴리오 1%는 낮다고 봄. 2021년 2017년식 급등 가능성 시사, 목표 4만 달러는 금 시가총액 대체 논리로 더 높을 수 있다고 언급.
다듬은 글
not a lot of people have been correct in calling the action we've seen of course not a lot of people could have predicted we would have seen a pandemic but after we did get that news and saw the way it impacted the market there have been few people more correct this year than funstrats tom lee want to just spotlight what he's called uh this year in 2020 back in the darkest part of the sell-off in march when everyone was panicking tom called for a rebound to 2800 on the s p 500 by april and called for all-time highs in just four months time we hit 2800 in april as he predicted he said that confirmed the thesis and the stock market would be uh well would be back to the levels we saw before the pandemic and that also played out during the september sell-off he called the line in the sand at 3 200 roughly about that and sure enough we bounced off that and then finally in the post-election sell-off he said to keep your eyes on the vix if we hit 25 he said that the market would be overlooking those election challenges by president trump and sure enough we did see that play out as well so i want to bring on uh the man himself here with us in uh fun strats tom lee here and we'll give the formal title fun and tom congrats on the on the great year man i mean like i said a few people have been as right as you and i love your takes because they're all based on data and history and looking back on the history we've seen play out here you're looking ahead to 2021 and you're saying the first half of the year might be a tough one for investors to stomach before we bounce back so what should investors expect next year um well i think that you know as we look back in 2020 uh the world got lucky and so stocks were able to look past a lot of bad things but enough good things were happening for the market to rise those good things are getting stronger next year zach like profit margins are going to recover strongly we should get a pretty big pmi boom i think consumers are going to feel a lot of relief once we vanquish covet and you know if interest rates remain low which we expect then you're talking about a big negative rate environment while gdp is growing and finally the vix which you kind of mentioned could fall even into the 17 16 range this really is great news for stocks but i do think it's like 2020 it could be really tricky and i i think in the first half we might make our way towards like the 4 000 level and then fall back to 3 500 and of course you got to be ready to take advantage of that because that's not the end of the bull market it's just the pause that refreshes there seems to be a key qualifier in there though that once we vanquish covid which is something that that hasn't been done obviously you look at a place like california we've seen a significant uptick over the last 48 hours or so with hospital capacity now at zero percent when you look at where things stand right now how much of this thesis that you've put forward is contingent on 75 percent of americans getting vaccinated as dr fauci has said that's needed for activity to resume to pre-pandemic levels um yeah foremost uh covets unpredictable so you know i i have not been able to find a good way to forecast it and we have not and so to me is completely unpredictable so you're correct that's the biggest risk um but we also know that if you implement a strict lockdown like europe just did covet rolls over hard so i mean it's not like the u.s doesn't have options uh listen you know you can't ignore what fauci or gottlieb say these guys are experts uh but one thing to keep in mind it looks like if you know if you tabulate the infections in the u.s so far plus make some assumption about unreported cases we're already you know we could be as close to 25 or 30 percent of americans have been infected by the spring and so then if we if if we vaccinate another 30 which is about 100 million and that's a lot uh that would be over what the threshold is considered for herd immunity so i don't know and i'm not an expert and i think if we have a correction the first half it's probably because of all these uh unknowns that you and i just discussed i mean i i don't know what covett's doing is it's still the dangerous virus so i don't i think everyone has to be careful yeah and tom i mean to akiko's point there it's a big question mark but when you look back historically and we showed the chart here in terms of what to expect we saw a run-up here 63 since this march lows but when you look back at history you're looking at a few years there in 2009 to 11 as well as back earlier in the 80s so what does that kind of indicate in terms of maybe what investors should be braced for if we do get a bit of that correction in the first half um yes i mean the first thing i think to keep mine is you know uh it's going to be really healthy for stocks to get turbulent but as we go through it it's going to be terrifying i mean if we go down 15 or from 4 000 to 3 500 500 s p point decline it's gonna feel like calamity and people are gonna be raising more cash and there's already four and a half trillion dollars of cash on the sidelines so you can imagine a lot of people who've been sitting on the sidelines are gonna say like i'm putting like a vault of force field around this cache so you're going to talk about skepticism really growing but that's how stocks can stage a even bigger rebound in the second half so i think it's going to be healthy it's going to be really scary i wouldn't if i'm long-term focused i wouldn't be a seller but if i'm tactical or if i had a ton of gains and then january we see s p 4000 maybe it's good to you know have some dry powder and you know i just another thing i'd point out i mean uh you know the expansion is going to be strengthening next year so i think that the the fear of calamity should be mitigated by the fact that we'll have more visibility tom when you look at the sectors you're overweight on going into next year energy one of those and i am curious how you're looking at that space right now is it about the renewables for the clean energy on the expectation of more aggressive climate policies being put forward by the vitamin administration or is it more about tracking the bounce back as we anticipate the economies to open back up in a more significant way yeah um well foremost energy is our long shot top three so we have three sectors we like but energy is i think our longest shot you know maybe a bit not a dice roll but the one that you you know you have to be to realize it it could be the diciest um but i think it's a bit like cable or how wireless recovered you know energy has the supply and demand dynamics and you know supply was a problem last couple years because so much drilling and that's going to be slowing and then in 2014 2016 when the industry had financial trouble there was all this private equity money that came in so there was too much capital but that's not coming in anymore so you have two constraints on supply and then demand should improve next year because of the recovery and so you have a real improvement in supply demand so less bad as tom luddy uh who was essentially cio j porn ass mancho he said less fat is good i think that's happening with energy and that's kind of how cable and wireless really came out of their bottoms um so it's more the carbon energy that could do well um but it's a dice roll and not a dice roll it's the wrong word it's it's not as clear-cut as being long industrials or consumer discretionary yeah you you've been pretty clear on your last appearances here you like those epicenter stocks that you talked about some of those that have been most hard hit whether you're looking at the restaurants the casino stocks airlines as well as some of the other ones you've highlighted there but let's talk about another let's continue the term of dicey roll here because i think this one i think we could both agree perhaps a little bit dicier when we look at crypto i highlighted a lot of the things you are right on there just to just to give the appearance of being fair here there was one call when we chatted back in 2019 we were talking about bitcoin maybe potentially reaching 20 000 to 40 40 000 by the end of 2019 maybe a little early on that one but we're there now so what does the crypto outlook uh look like to you and how investors should maybe be looking into the momentum that bitcoin has behind its back yeah uh yeah bitcoin you know if i had to say 2020 what has it brought it's brought more relevance for uh digital currencies you know because these are free from interference from government they are fixed in supply so they are not you know hurt by central bank with you know liquidity and it's a way for people to protect um assets because i think there is a lot of insecurity about how safe the world is so that's why we've seen um some financial institutions and some really smart uh commodity and macro investors get involved with bitcoin this year i think it's really validated what you know what the fringe would have always argued that this is eventually going to be an allocated asset you know we've always recommended one percent to be allocated to bitcoin i think it really it's too low it needs to be a higher percentage but 2020 returns are a lot like 2016 and and that happened after the happening so i think 2017 which was the year bitcoin last went a little crazy 2021 would be the year where you might see that in bitcoin so if anyone is interested it's still quite early in bitcoin because you know 2017 the returns were astronomical for crypto is i'm not saying it's 40 000.
now you're still is that is that still the target though to keep eyes on 40 000 being the top uh well you know it i think that the easiest way for people to think about the upside for bitcoin is if it's displacement of gold and gold is you know seven to nine trillion dollars of just above ground uh supply and so that would put bitcoin well above those levels it's you know a lot higher okay we'll check to check in with you to see uh where those target stands although bitcoin today uh below that 23 000 record it said yesterday tom lee's always good to talk to you managing partner and head of research at fundstrat global advisors
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