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Welcome to both of you. Tom, you want to just start with your thoughts on the markets? Why is tech a kind of not participating this time? They've been a ballast so far in this in this sell-off. Uh yeah, I mean I I think tech in general has actually held up really well including software. Uh it makes sense to us because uh and it's I'm going to make a counterintuitive statement.
Higher oil is relatively good for US equities because one, you know, the US is a net producer of oil but as people worry about global growth slowing because of high oil, they want to own growth stocks which actually makes them want to own the US stock market because it is a growth index especially the mag seven and software.
Um so I I I actually think that this kind of makes sense and I I've heard the earlier conversation today. I I'm also in the camp that I think we're making our bottom this month for the equity markets. Okay. Two of Wall Street's most respected voices just came together with a message that nobody expected.
Tom Lee says we're making the bottom this month. Cathie Wood says this market is climbing a wall of worry and that phrase has a very specific meaning. She also dropped something massive about AI saying we're seeing astounding results from Anthropic and Open AI. Meanwhile, the Dow just fell below its 200-day moving average for the first time since June 2025.
Private credit is showing more cockroaches. The VIX hit 25 highest in over a year. Oil is pushing toward $115 a barrel. 72% of Americans have a negative view of the economy. And yet, Tom Lee is calling for S&P 7,700 by year-end and Cathie Wood says this is the best time to pick up volatile stocks. Here's what they see that everyone else is missing.
What about you know, we got Jefferies down 7% Deutsche Bank down about that much. A lot of people are trying to look around, poke into where these private credit exposures and stuff might be. What would you say about that narrative right now, Tom? Well, um you know, private credit's been a problem for some time.
So uh I think it has been uh increasingly revealing as Jamie Dimon said, more cockroaches. Um I do think it's probably not as systematic as we might fear. I know people carry the Lehman hammer and think that this is a repeat of the GFC, but again, there's a lot of reasons uh it's not a systematic. One is just the size, the market's not nearly as large, but also things that look like credit stress aren't really signaling like they did in 2008.
So, I'm you know, I think it's hurting financials right now, but I don't think it's a broader problem for the market or the economy. Tom Lee makes a counterintuitive statement that most analysts aren't seeing higher oil is actually a good for us equities. Why? Because the US is a net producer of oil, and when people worry about global growth slowing because of high oil, they want to own growth stocks, which means they want to own the US stock market, the Mag 7 and software.
That's why tech has held up well in this sell-off while the rest of the market is getting crushed. Tom Lee is in the camp that we're making our bottom this month for equity markets. Here's the data that supports Tom Lee's March bottom call. Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson, who spent years calling the rolling recession that everyone missed, just said this correction is mature in time and price.
His data point, 50% of all stocks in the Russell 3000 are now down at least 20% from their 52-week highs. Among S&P 500 members, that figure exceeds 40%. Wilson called this a correction within a bull market, not a new downturn. He identified April 2025 as the recession's trough, and here's the key. Earnings revisions breadth staged a dramatic V-shaped rebound from that point, the early cycle recovery he forecasted is underway.
Tom Lee's S&P 500 year-end target, 7,700, a nearly 13% gain from current levels around 6,800. Cathie Wood uses a specific phrase that has massive implications, climbing a wall of worry. This isn't just investor slang, it's a historical pattern. When we look back at the end of this year, she believes the market is going to be characterized as having climbed a wall of worry, and now with the war, there are more bricks being put into that wall.
She managed money during the tech and telecom bubble, and she says this is night and day from 2000. Back then, there was no fear. Today, there's extreme fear. Here's the data that proves the extreme fear Cathie Wood is talking about. A whopping 72% of Americans have a negative view of the economy, according to February 2026 Pew research.
Nearly 40% believe economic conditions will be worse a year from now. The II I sentiment survey shows 46% of investors are worried. Stock prices will be lower 6 months from now, up from 36% just 1 week prior. Fidelity's research confirms the setup. mismatch between stocks showing fear and corporate bonds not being alarmed.
That mismatch is precisely the backdrop where stocks have often climbed the wall of worry. Translation, a lot of the bad news investors fear may already be priced in. When you line up major geopolitical events, Pearl Harbor to Russia Ukraine, average stock market returns over the following 12 months are right around their long-run trend, about 8%.
Tom Lee addresses the elephant in the room, private credit, as Jamie Dimon warned. When you see one cockroach, there's probably more. Jefferies is down 7%. Deutsche Bank is down about the same, but Tom Lee says this is probably not as systematic as we might fear. People carry the Lehman hammer and think this is a repeat of the 2008 global financial crisis, but he sees multiple reasons it's not systematic.
The size of the market is nowhere near as large, and things that look like credit stress aren't signaling like they did in 2008. It's hurting financials, but he doesn't think it's a broader problem for the market or economy. Cathie, you guys are are looking, if I'm not mistaken, to kind of help the public get into more early-stage growth companies.
And we saw last week Robinhood did something similar. They're IPOing a venture fund. Um and this comes against this backdrop where a lot of the kind of growthy companies have ended up in private markets, and they don't go public anymore. Then I know the SEC has a big push to try to change that, but one of the problems, as you and others know, is that sometimes they don't perform that well.
It's very risky. So, could you just comment on the current state of affairs? Like, the private markets have losses, you go in the public markets, people don't want losses, but they want access to growthy companies. You know, who can they feel confident will help give them the best of the bunch? Yes, Kelly.
Well, it's very interesting to be managing money at this time and to have managed money very early portfolio manager early in my years in the tech and telecom bubble. It's night and day. There was no fear back then and today there's extreme fear and and there are some reasons understand that but I believe and this is going to fit into what Tom just said.
I believe the market uh uh when we look back maybe at the end of this year is is going to be characterized as climbing a wall of worry. And of course now with the the war there is another reason. There are another few bricks being put into that wall. This is a really good time to pick up on uh stocks that might be more volatile.
Volatility in our world uh it does not measure risk as much as it measures uncertainty. And I think the new technologies evolving today and the way we do Arc does its research on these technologies to understand how they're going to scale and who's leading the pack. I think we're in a very good position and the opportunities this is a technology revolution and we are not in an AI hype cycle and we think it has miles to go and of course consider the source it's all we do but we're beginning to see results astounding results at companies like Anthropic and OpenAI in terms of their ARRs.
Here's the data on the private credit situation that's dominating headlines right now. Private credit is a $3 trillion industry according to Morgan Stanley. Blue Owl one of the largest private credit lenders sold off $1.4 billion in assets in February to return money to investors. Instead of reassuring them it sparked panic.
Blue Owl shares have fallen 40% since the start of the year. Blackstone's back red-faced elevated redemption requests in early 2026, exceeding quarterly caps. Two companies backed by private credit declared bankruptcy in September, Tricolor and First Brands Group. But here's the critical context. Mohamed A.
El-Erian distinguishes between cockroaches, isolated failures, and termites that pose systemic risk. Lincoln International estimates $24 billion in foreclosed debt in 2025, nearly 2x the previous 3 years combined. That's not crisis. That's a maturing market finally differentiating between strong and weak underwriting.
Cathie would drop something massive about AI that most investors are missing. She says we're seeing astounding results at companies like Anthropic and OpenAI in terms of their ARR, annual recurring revenue. This is not an AI hype cycle, and she thinks it has miles to go. Volatility in Ark's world doesn't measure risk as much as it measures uncertainty, the new technologies evolving today, and the way Ark does research on these technologies to understand how they're going to scale and who's leading the pack.
She thinks they're in a very good position. Here's the AI revenue data that proves Cathie Wood's astounding results comment. Anthropic just hit $19 billion in annualized revenue as of March 2026, up from $14 billion in February and $9 billion at end of 2025. That's 10x annual growth rate since hitting $1 billion.
OpenAI is at $25 billion annualized, but Anthropic is growing faster, 10x versus 3.4x per year. At this pace, Anthropic could surpass OpenAI by mid-2026. Enterprise is winning. Anthropic now gets 65% of enterprise AI deals versus OpenAI's 35% just 10 weeks ago. It was 50/50. It's eight of the Fortune 10 are Claude customers.
Claude code hit $2.5 billion ARR in February 2026. Over 500 customers now spend over $1 million annually on Claude, up from a dozen 2 years ago. Goldman Sachs forecasts $527 billion in AI CapEx for hyperscalers in 2026. Nvidia reported 875% increase in net profit since January 2023. This is not hype, it's revenue.
Cathie Wood has identified the big four in AI and she says it could soon shrink to just two. OpenAI and Anthropic as I Elon Musk and Google's Gemini are competing for dominance. The competition is fierce and the recent acqui-hires by OpenAI and Meta are examples of the AI space getting smaller. Other companies are not making it.
The number of companies truly competing in the large language model space has shrunk. This consolidation is creating clear winners and massive losers. Here's the data on AI consolidation that's reshaping the industry. OpenAI spent $6.4 billion to acquire Jony Ive's IO hardware startup in 2025, plus $1.1 billion for Statsig, plus acqui-hiring teams from coding assistant companies.
Anthropic raised $30 billion in Series G at a $380 billion valuation. Just 4 months after being valued at $170 billion, that's more than doubling in 4 months. Meanwhile, DeepSeek and China's open-source models are competitive with closed-source American labs. The number of researchers actually working on core algorithms inside Anthropic and OpenAI is tiny.
When research moves behind closed doors, you throttle innovation. China is investing 40% of GDP into new productive forces. They're building 28 large nuclear reactors simultaneously while the US isn't building one. The application layer will determine the winner in Silicon Valley still dominates everywhere except TikTok.
Tom Lee hasn't backed down from his Bitcoin prediction. He's calling for $200,000 to $250,000 Bitcoin by year-end 2026. He says the October 2025 crash to $88,000 wiped out excess leverage creating room for a healthy rally. Tailwinds include institutional adoption and government support. And here's a key insight.
Gold rallies have typically LED Bitcoin rallies. Gold just hit $5,500 plus all-time highs. Tom Lee also says the traditional 4-year cycle may be retiring in favor of more mature momentum. Here's the Bitcoin data that contextualizes Tom Lee's $250,000 call. Bitcoin is currently around 7200 - 7400 showing impressive stability despite extreme fear sentiment.
Since the Iran war escalated on February 28th, Bitcoin is up 7% outperforming S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, gold, and silver. Bitcoin funding rates have been negative since early March, the longest period since April 2025, which marked the market bottom at $76,000. The crypto fear and greed index shows extreme fear, yet price is resilient.
Institutional support strategy, formerly MicroStrategy, holds 673,000 plus BTC. Fresh spot Bitcoin ETFs have attracted $58 billion plus. Tom Lee's S&P target of 7,700 implies roughly 13% upside. His Bitcoin target of 20025K implies 170240 upside. He sees a much bigger opportunity in crypto than stocks.
Cathie Wood's long-term Bitcoin thesis is even more bullish than Tom Lee's. Her bull case, $1.5 million per Bitcoin by 2030. But, it's not just about inflation hedging. She says Bitcoin is a hedge against something more disruptive, deflation driven by technological acceleration. AI and exponential technologies will trigger deflationary chaos that traditional financial institutions and the Fed are unprepared for.
The Fed looks in the rearview mirror. They analyze past data. They don't see the wall coming. Bitcoin's decentralized design and fixed supply make it a safer alternative to fragile debt-based systems. Here's ARK's Big Ideas 2026 data that supports Cathie's thesis. ARK predicts Bitcoin market cap will increase 700% over the next 4 years.
Bitcoin's behavior changed meaningfully in 2025. Smaller drawdowns, compressed volatility, improved risk-adjusted returns. Bitcoin's sharp ratio now outperforms Ethereum. Solana and the CoinDesk 10 Index, ARK sees Bitcoin acting more like a safe haven asset than a speculative one. Five converging platforms, robotics, energy storage, AI, blockchain, and multiomic sequencing.
ARK projects 7% real global GDP growth by 2030, more than double the 3% we've been stuck at for 125 years. From 1500 to 1900, global GDP growth was 0.6% then came railroads, telephones, electricity and we jumped to 3%. Now we're at another inflection point. Arc believes AI driven productivity gains will be so deflationary that the Fed will be forced to print more money which flows into Bitcoin.
Cathie Wood points to something that contradicts the mainstream narrative. This is a really good time to pick up on stocks that might be more volatile. In Arc's world, volatility doesn't measure risk, it measures uncertainty. The new technologies evolving today are in a technology revolution. The fear everyone has about AI being existential for tech companies.
She believes many will adapt, reinvent, and find new ways of adding value and recent valuations provide a healthy margin of safety. Here's the quantitative data that supports Cathie Wood's buy the dip thesis. Fidelity's research shows tech sector relative valuations have fallen to roughly the bottom third of their historical range.
When that's happened in the past, the tech sector has gone on to outperform about 70% of the time. Software is even more dislocated. Operating profit margins near peak levels, yet relative valuations at just 14th percentile. That's a massive disconnect. The Cape ratio is at 39, more than double its long-term average.
That sounds scary, but the difference from 2000 Many AI companies have already monetized their investments profitably. Record profits and cash flow from the AI super cycle support a market premium. This isn't the dot-com bubble where companies had no revenue. Anthropic went from $87 million to $19 billion in under 2 years.
That's real business. Tom Lee addresses the Iran war and oil spike that's terrifying investors. West Texas Intermediate just hit $97.98 per briefly pushed above $115. The Strait of Hormuz remains a flash point, but here's why Tom Lee isn't panicking. The US is a net producer of oil now. When oil rises, yes, it creates inflation fears, but it also makes investors seek growth stocks which benefits US equities over the rest of the world.
Here's the data on why high oil doesn't guarantee recession. Fidelity research shows there's a line in the sand around the 5% level. Once consumers spend about 5% or more of their income on energy, they start tightening. By their math, that threshold corresponds to energy prices around 135145 per barrel still.
Higher than current trading levels, and prices would need to remain elevated for weeks or months to create sustained headwind. US household personal income versus energy expense has a lot more buffer than in the 1970s. The economy is more service based now. The Fed held rates steady this week at 353.75.
Powell acknowledged inflation concerns from oil, but also said only one rate cut may be on the table for 2026. That's actually a sign of strength, not weakness. The Fed believes the economy can handle current conditions. Here's the bottom line from Tom Lee and Cathie Wood. Tom Lee, March is the bottom for equities.
S&P 7,700 by year end. Tech is holding up because of oil, not despite it. Higher oil drives investors to growth stocks. Private credit cockroaches are not Lehman 2.0. Bitcoin to 200250K by year end the four-year cycle may be retiring. Cathie Wood, this market is climbing a wall of worry. Extreme fear like today has historically preceded strong returns.
We're not in an AI hype cycle. Anthropic and OpenAI show astounding revenue results. The big four in AI could shrink too, too. Volatility measures uncertainty, not risk. This is a great time to buy. 1.5 million dollars Bitcoin by 2030 as AI creates deflationary chaos. The data, 72% of Americans negative on economy sentiment at extremes.
50% of Russell 3000 stocks already down 20% plus from highs. Anthropic at 19 billion dollars are growing 10x annually. Tech valuations in bottom third of historical range, 70% outperformance follows. Oil needs to hit 135145 to trigger consumer pullback. We're not there. This is the setup. The fear is priced in.
The rotation is coming. tell me in the comments, are you buying this dip or selling into fear? I'll see you in the next one.
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