저자: Tom · 외국인
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버핏의 1997년 주주총회 발언과 2021년 현재 시장을 비교하는 리액션 영상이다. 결론: 1997년과 2021년 시장은 높은 밸류에이션과 저금리 환경에서 유사성이 크며, 좋은 기업도 과도한 가격에 사면 수익률이 떨어진다. 버핏의 '불가피한 기업(inevitables)' 개념: 코카콜라와 질레트를 예로 들며 좋은 기업이라도 단기적으로 너무 비싸게 살 수 있다고 경고했다. 진행자는 질레트는 현재 보유하지 않으며 코카콜라는 여전히 보유 중이라고 설명한다. 가격의 중요성: 버핏은 좋은 기업을 확신하는 것이 가격이 5~10% 높은지 아는 것보다 중요하다고 말한 것으로 소개된다. 진행자는 본인이 과거 안전마진 50%를 고집하다 매수 기회를 놓쳐 손해를 봤다고 회고한다. 수익률 전망: 찰리 멍거와 버핏 모두 향후 15년보다 실질 주식 수익률이 낮아질 것이라고 봤다는 점을 강조한다. 진행자는 2021년 역시 10년간 기업 성장과 저금리가 겹친 시기라 주가가 높을 수 있다고 본다. 거품 메커니즘: 좋은 전제(성장·저금리)가 시간이 지나며 가격 상승 자체의 논리로 변질되고, 가격이 기초 가치에서 멀어진다는 벤저민 그레이엄 인용을 소개한다. 1920년대 에드거 로렌스 스미스 사례도 언급된다. 리스크: 가격을 너무 높게 지불하면 기업이 좋아도 수익률이 크게 훼손된다. 시장이 기업 가치보다 앞서 나가는 지점이 존재한다. 출연자 전망: 특정 자산에 대한 명시적 단기 방향 예측은 없고, 시장 전반이 고평가 상태일 가능성에 동의하는 입장이다.
다듬은 글
hey it's tom here and welcome back to the channel so just last night i was scrolling through youtube on my phone and came across a clip of warren buffett at his annual meeting in 1997. and basically warren buffett went on to talk about many of the very high valuations that were present in the stock market at that time this was about two or three years before the tech bubble burst in 2000 and leading into that period the valuations on really good businesses were getting quite high and the valuations on low quality businesses also were getting quite high it was a really unusual time in the stock market and i think there are a huge amount of parallels from what was going on in the late 90s to what is going on today and i want to sit down and basically react to this video and give you some of my thoughts on a few things that warren buffett said so without further ado let's get straight into it a couple initial shout outs first buffett answers is the youtube channel that i'm watching this clip on i will leave that link down in the description below and also a quick shout out to emd who i noticed in the comment section last night i know he's a longtime subscriber to the channel so if you're watching shout out but for now let's get straight into the video my name is pete banner and i'm from boulder colorado and i'm a shareholder recently mr greenspan made his comments about exuberance and it wasn't long thereafter that that you came out in the annual uh report and made your comments that you felt the market was fully valued or something of that nature did you have or have you had any communication with mr greenspan uh regarding the valuation of the stock market no the the answer to that is no i have the last time i uh for those wondering alan greenspan at the time was the cheer of the federal reserve uh i believe well i can't remember precisely when the last time i saw alan greenspan with but a long time ago we had one conversation today of the solomon crisis and he was formerly on the board of cap cities before he took his job with the fed and uh and cap cities abc so i knew him then but but uh uh you know it's very hard to understand what alan says sometimes so there's not much sense talking to him he's very careful about what he says uh but i uh i i should i'm glad you brought up the subject of the annual report because it what i was doing in the annual report is i had talked about uh coke and gillette as being the inevitables and what wonderful businesses they were and and uh i thought it appropriate particularly the report goes to a lot of people that they would not take that as an unqualified buy recommendation about the companies because they're absolutely wonderful companies run by outstanding managers but you can pay too much at least in the short run for businesses like that so i thought it was only a this is a concept that warren buffett actually talked about quite a bit in the 90s was this concept of the inevitables basically businesses that were almost guaranteed in his mind to do quite well uh in the bus in that basket of businesses at the time he talks about gillette and coca-cola uh gillette is no longer a holding for warren buffett for reasons that i don't want to get into in this video but coca-cola as many of you will know is still a position that warren buffett holds on to but uh you may have heard him mention it very quickly there and he'll mention it quite a bit more throughout this video is that you can pay too much for those businesses particularly in the short run as sort of the way he worded it so no business regardless of how high quality it is is worth an infinite price and uh you know if you buy into a high quality business and you do pay a little a little bit too much um you know just the high quality-ness of that business and the continued growth of that company can get you out of trouble over a long period of time but it can really put a damper on your returns if you overpay for that company in the first place appropriate to point out that no matter how wonderful a business it is that that there always is a risk that you will that you will pay a price where it will take a few years for the business to get or for this for the business to catch up with the stock that the stock can get ahead of the business and i don't know where that point is with those companies or any other companies but i did say that i thought that the risks were fairly high that that situation existed uh with most securities in the market including companies such as inevitable but it was designed to be sure that people did not take the remarks that i made about those companies and just take that as an unqualified buy recommendation regard regardless of price we have no intention of selling those two stocks we wouldn't sell them if they were selling at prices considerably higher than they are now but but i didn't want particularly relatively unsophisticated people to see those names there and then think this guy is touting these as a wonderful buy generally speaking i think if you're sure enough about a business being wonderful it's more important to be certain about the business being a wonderful business than it is to be certain that the price is not ten percent too high or five percent too high or something of the sort and uh that's a philosophy that i came slowly to originally was incredibly price conscious we used to have prayer meetings before we would raise our bid and eight you know around the office but that was a mistake i think that's a really good point and frankly the scenario where i've grown over the last year or so as well i used to be super strict on you know trying to get the big 50 margin of safety and so on which i still largely try to to be i'm really still trying to buy a dollar worth of business value for 50 cents in the stock market but you have to understand that intrinsic value is not a number that you can pin down to three decimal places or anything it's um it's a range so if a stock price gets within uh you know at least a reasonably tight range of that target price i'll be more open to buying that particular stock there have been a couple of companies where i have actually one where i've completely missed out altogether i just didn't pull the trigger because it you know didn't get right to the exact scent of where i was wanting to buy it at the at the 50 margin of safety and there's been other examples of businesses where i have bought an initial position but i haven't been able to buy in the full position the entire amount that i want again just because i was slightly uh price conscious and maybe it's just a sign of the times but in both of those cases that has cost me money i would have been a little bit wealthier today had i just pulled the trigger at slightly higher prices but um notice that warren buffett is talking about quite tight ranges he said you know don't get caught up on five or ten percent he's not saying don't get caught up on 50 or 100 or 200 percent yeah there is a point where we're paying too much uh definitely uh hurts your returns quite significantly uh and in some cases a huge mistake i mean we we miss things because of that and uh so what i said in the report was not a market prediction in any sense we never try to predict the stock market we do try to price securities we try to price businesses as what we try to do and and and we find it hard to find wonderful good average substandard businesses that are that look to us like they're cheap now but you know you don't always get a chance to buy things cheap charlie i certainly agree with that they the one thing we can confidently guarantee is that uh real inflation-adjusted returns from investing in a standard collection of stocks will be lower in the long-term future than they've been in the last 15 years or so this is that is uncanny how familiar that statement is to something charlie munger actually only said a few months ago he said almost that exact same thing about the stock market today or maybe try and stitch that clip in here uh just after i'm about to stop talking now why the answer is yes could you give us a hint as to why that might happen yes because so many people are in it and the frenzy is so great and the systems of management the reward systems are so foolish that that i don't think it's going to work at all i don't think i think the returns will go down yes in real terms the returns will be lower unprecedented period and there will be some regression toward the mean in average returns from investing in the stock market american business has done extraordinarily well in the last decade plus and that's a huge a huge plus for securities because they just represent pieces of those businesses interest rates over the last 15 years have fallen that's a big plus for stocks anytime interest rates go down the value of every financial asset goes up in rational uh in a rational calculation both of those factors have combined in recent years to produce uh conditions that that enhance the true value of of american business this again is incredibly similar to what we're seeing today in 2021 we've had 10 years of uh you know with a bump in the road uh been the exception in 2020 but largely we've had 10 years of spectacular business growth and we've also had 10 years or so of interest rates just being pinned pretty much at zero and they've even they tried to put them up a little bit a couple of years ago and then they basically come straight back down to zero so uh you know there are a lot of people talking about the stock market being priced abnormally high um i tend to agree with that but one of the things you have to keep in mind is that if there was ever a time for stocks to be priced really high uh rationally it's probably now it's probably at a time where business growth has been really good and interest rates are really low it would be surprising to me if the stock market wasn't priced really highly in a situation like this but like uh warren buffett i think is about to say uh there is a point at which again it just gets gets too far ahead of the underlying businesses in terms of what the stock price is doing uh but those are pretty widely recognized now and and after a while ben graham always used to say you can get more trouble in investment with a good premise than with a bad premise because the bad premise will shout out to you immediately as being fallacious whereas with a good premise it'll work for a while uh you know businesses are worth more money if interest rates fall and stocks rise but that eventually the market action of the securities themselves creates its own rationale for a whole for a large crop of buyers and people forget about the reasons and the mathematical limitations that were implied and what they uh and what got them excited in the first place and after a while rising prices themselves alone will keep people excited and cause more people to enter the game and therefore the good premise after a while is forgotten except for the fact that it produced these rising prices and the prices themselves take over he he wrote about that in the connection with the 1920s when edgar lawrence smith in 1924 wrote a fine book on why stocks were better than bonds and that was sort of the sort of the bible of the of the bull market of the 20s and it made sense if you paid attention to a couple of the caveats which were in in edgar lawrence smith's little book which was related to price but people tend to forget about the importance of the price they pay fantastic points so the what warren buffett is saying here is you know the two drivers for stock price appreciation like we just talked about earlier with business growth going up and interest rates going down are very real uh you know factors that should drive the intrinsic value of businesses up but again you've got to be conscious of price and at a certain point point people see these stock prices going up at first rationally but then they sort of get drawn into uh just the fact that prices are going up which causes more buying because they sort of want to get in on this and they see their neighbor making money and so on uh and eventually it just kind of spirals out of control in like um warren buffett's saying here things get kind of detached from reality in terms of you know rational prices to pay that is a massively important component of doing well in investment you know imagine if you went and bought a rental property down the street that brought in uh you know ten thousand dollars a year in rent if you paid a billion dollars for that house you're probably not going to get a very high uh income or a very high return on that billion dollars of capital that you put into that real estate so even if that's a super high quality house that's gonna you know get good reliable tenants for a long period of time and the rent will go up a few percent a year for you know the rest of history if you pay a billion dollars for their house you're going to struggle to get a good return so price is is exceptionally important as the experience of a bull market just sort of dulls the senses generally and that is the end of the video so i love going back and watching some of these old warren buffett clips i think that they are incredibly powerful in terms of uh trying to relate to some of the things that are going on today this is a fantastic example where there's a lot of parallels between what was going on in 1997 when this video was filmed and what's going on uh today in 2021 so i'd love to hear your thoughts on what warren buffett was saying here do you think this has parallels with what we're seeing today or am i just streaming this stuff up i'd love to hear your thoughts on that and also if there are any other warren buffett or any other investor clips that you'd like to see me sort of react to and give you some commentary on definitely drop those down in the comments section below i actually really like making these types of videos these are uh fairly simple to put together and it also allows me to share some wisdom from people that are a whole lot smarter than me and i can maybe add a little bit on top here and there to um hopefully help you out along the way as well but that's it for me today do hope you enjoyed the video if you did please hit like and hit subscribe and i will see you in the next one cheers
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