저자: ParkevTatevosian,CFA · 외국인
요약 보기
테슬라 3분기 실적 발표(10/23) 앞두고 매수 자제 주장. 차량 매출 감소(-7%), 영업이익률 6.3%(전년比 -333bp)로 자동차 기업으로 평가해야 하며 PER 69.9배는 고평가. 에너지 저장 사업 성장(+100%)이 마진을 일부 개선할 수 있으나 미미할 것. 저가 모델 출시 지연·원가절감 축소 우려. 발표 후 매수 권고. 발언자는 테슬라 공매도 포지션 보유 고백.
다듬은 글
Tesla when the markets close on October 23rd and investors are asking if they should buy Tesla stock before the company announces those quarterly earnings result provide a preview for what Tesla stock investors should expect from the company in the upcoming earnings release the key numbers to look for the key qualitative factors to look out for and what would make a good earning release versus what would make a bad earnings release for Tesla when the company reports its one thing we already know about Tesla's thirdd quarter is the production and delivery numbers I guess that's two things we already know the company reported how many vehicles It produced and how many it delivered in the latest repor saying that it produced 6 469,000 fewer than it sold it produced so inventories are likely to have increased in the quarter the company also reported that gigawatt energy storage products improved as well Tesla that's one of the areas it wants investors to focus on more basically Tesla's been pointing to everything else other than car production and delivery numbers because these numbers have not been great so Tesla's been talking about energy talking about artificial intelligence robotics basically anything other than electric vehicles sales because those have been disappointing now the company's total revenues in the latest quarter were just up by 2% only 2% increase to 25.5 billion and that's the result of total Automotive revenues being down 7% so Car Sales which is by far the largest part of Tesla's business you can see out of 25.5 billion in Revenue 19.9 billion came from car sales so that's why I keep suggesting that this is a car business the vast majority of the company's sales come from cars and so yes maybe at some point in the future this will not be the case but for now this is the case and until Tesla shifts the percentage of the business to something outside of car sales I'll keep evaluating the company as a car company and then I'll shift as the company produces and and demonstrates a reason to Value it differently I'm not just going to take the word of a company's management and value the company the way the company's management wants me to value a company of course they want me to Value the company like an AI and Robotics company I'll share with you why that's the case right now so right now Tesla is trading at a forward price to earnings of 69.9 three a very expensive valuation you compare that with a couple of its car company rivals Ford and GM they're trading at forward price to earnings of 5.8 and five so of course Tesla doesn't want you to evaluate it as a car company because that would mean the valuation needs to be on10th of where it is today so of course they are incentivized to get you to focus on it in a different light because that gives it a higher valuation but even if you look at it like an AI company it's still very expensive compared to Microsoft and n which are two AI tech companies right they'r0 uh of 34 and Microsoft is at a forward pric to earnings of 27 so even if you compare it to AI companies Tesla is more than twice as expensive as those other AI companies but that being said you can see the operating profit margins of AI companies nvidia's profit margin 62% Microsoft's profit margin 44% do you see Tesla here you do not you see Tesla's profit margins where the car companies are like Ford and GM in the single digits 75% for Tesla 6.5 for GM and 2.21% for Ford this is why car companies are unattractive this is why for several years now I've told investors to avoid EV stocks it's not an attractive business to be in even at larger scale the business does not generate strong profit margins and that's precisely why Tesla wants you to think of it as an AI company before it even approaches anywhere near the profit margins of an AI company it's promising you that at some point in the future it will do that right so looking at its operating profit margin Trend that's not good either 6.3% in the latest quarter down 333 basis points year over-year now when the company reports the next quarterly results the one that's upcoming here I expect the operating profit margin might improve especially if the company was able to grow the energy storage and services side of the business at these excellent rates of growth the energy storage business increased by 100% in the latest quarter if that Trend continues that could lift the company's profit margin in the near term because EV sales those are not doing well as I highlighted earlier the company compies offering lower prices and more attractive financing terms to get these sales through and so I wouldn't be surprised if vehicle margins are flat or down in the quarter but the energy and services side of the business might help facilitate an increase in operating profit margin nevertheless the Improvement should not be anything significant I expect the company's profit margins to continue to remain very very low for a very long time while it builds out this driverless car business while it hopefully hopefully introduces a lower priced model that's the thing I'm going to talk about a little bit later net income also not going in the right direction minus 45% in the latest quarter to 1.5 billion but I think operating profit margin is the more attract more informative numbers to look at with Tesla compared to net income and that one was not as bad as net income thankfully the company has an excellent balance sheet and I see that to persisting as well it has $30 billion in cash and very little debt especially compared with other car companies Tesla's debt is way lower than any other car company so that it has working for it and even though I've highlighted that um Tesla is overvalued compared to other car companies I still think Tesla deserves a premium valuation compared to other car companies it's one of the best car companies in the world the problem is that it's trading at one of the best it's trading at a valuation like 10 I showed you 10 times that of every other car company and more than two times that of large AI companies so even in that case I think the premium is very very high for this right so I want to hear more when the company reports about The cybertruck they highlighted that production more than tripled sequentially and remains on track to achieve profitability by the end of this year that would be really good I want to hear more about that are they still on track to reach profitability for the Cyber truck and is the goal still to hit 250,000 units of cyber Truck Sales is that still possible or is the initial release so disappointing that the expectations need to be downgraded that will be something that I really want to hear about from Tesla because that can be something that generates some growth because you saw the E the car sales down 7% year-over-year so if the Cyber truck can scale up can help grow the business grow that side of the business otherwise it's going to be very difficult going for Tesla competition is increasing and intensifying and Tesla doesn't really give buyers a reason to go into one of their models especially the older models that haven't been changed in so long competition is coming out with newer more exciting models lowering the prices and so consumers going out there they have more choice and they're choosing other cars and that's been working against Tesla so the services business H is likely to perform well and in an effort to increase EV penetration Tesla continues to open its Network to non- Tesla EVs and partner with more manufacturers to give them access to Tesla charging stations so while this will increase their Network utilization it's going to upset some Tesla car owners that now have to share the network with all other car buyers right initially Tesla car buyers were were sold on the idea that they get access to this special Tesla charging Network and now they have to share the network with all other EVS uh pretty much that's the plan for Tesla so again Tesla car buyers were told one thing and now have to accept another thing not much unlike Tesla investors who are often told one thing and have to accept another thing that's just Tesla's way of doing things they overpromise and underd deliver so here's a key thing plans for new vehicles the lower priced model is critical I know Tesla doesn't like to talk about it because it's years and years behind schedule and prices are going to be higher than they expected but the lower priced models are absolutely essential for this business the the talk of the robo taxi is good for inflating the stock price but for the actual ual business sales and revenue and cash flow they need that lower priced model so plans for new vehicles including more affordable models remain on track for production in the first half of 2025 this is the critical thing this is the big qualitative thing I'm looking for from Tesla in this upcoming earnings release are they going to talk more about precisely when this lower priced model is going to come out now they say that it'll utilize some aspects of the next gen platform as well as some of the current gen platform and it'll be on the current manufacturing line this will result in achieving less cost reduction than previously planned again another data point where Tesla told investors many years ago that they're going to produce a $255,000 model and now that the date is approaching they're now saying that it's going to be not that low it's not going to be that we're not going to achieve as much cost reduction as we told you right so yet another data point overpromise underd deliver the company's in the habit of doing that so should investors buy the stock ahead of earnings I say no the stock is overvalued as I shared with you if you're intent if you're like absolutely convinced and you want to buy Tesla stock at the very least wait until after the earnings come out that way you do reduce the risk of any downside coming out of the earnings release and you get the company at the most inform in most point of information the point in time when you have the most information about the company is right after they release earnings so at least you'll have that going for you and if you still want to overpay for this stock by all means go ahead and do so but at least at the to reduce your risk do it after earnings by the way for full transparency in case you didn't already get this from my tone I feel Tesla stock is overvalued and am short this stock
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