저자: ParkevTatevosian,CFA · 외국인
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TSMC 3분기 실적: 매출 전년비 39%, 순이익·EPS 54% 증가, 매출총이익률 57.8%·영업이익률 47.5%. AI 수요 강세 지속, 다음 분기 매출 260~270억 달러 가이던스, 고성능컴퓨팅 비중 51%로 확대. 대만 지정학 리스크로 밸류에이션 할인. 연초 대비 주가 상승으로 PER 15→25, 여전히 매수 의견 유지.
다듬은 글
October 17th 2024 that has huge implications for the broader semiconductor industry and the developments in the artificial intelligence market so I'm going to review the company's latest Financial results I'm going to talk about the implications for the broader market for artificial intelligence and semi conductors and I'm also going to update my buy hold or sell recommendation of Taiwan semiconductor stock remember I've had this stock rated as a buy all year long in 2024 it's been one of my better performing stocks in 2024 not all of them have worked this well but Taiwan semiconductor has been one that has worked well so I'm pleased to see that if you invested in Taiwan semiconductor you would have made a good deal of return on investment in 2024 but let's take a look at these latest developments and update the recommendation here porting year-over-year thirdd quarter Revenue which increased by 39% while net income and earnings per share increased by 54% the company has some of the best profit margins of any company in the world a gross profit margin of 57.8% in the latest quarter and an operating profit margin of 47.5% with a net profit margin of 42.8% now these are really strong profit margins but it makes it even better when you consider that this is a hardware Manufacturing Company these are the type of profit margins you expect to see from a software type business for a manufacturing business it's much more difficult to generate these levels of profit margins anks the highest in terms of profitability for manufacturing companies worldwide now I don't follow every single manufacturing company but this profit margin is among the best of any manufacturing company that I follow and it's a really strong profit margin overall that's why all year long in 2024 how great of a business it is and the valuation made it such an attractive investment of course I've also talked about how the reason Taiwan semiconductor stock is available at an attractive valuation is because of the geopolitical risks that's why Taiwan semiconductor stock trades at a valuation that's significantly lower than a business with this kind of performance deserves a business with this kind of performance if it was a us-based business would be trading at maybe double devaluation that Taiwan semiconductor stock trades for management says that their business in the third quarter was supported by strong smartphone and AI related demand for their industry leading three nanometer and 5 nanometer Technologies in the semiconductor industry the smaller the number of nanometer the more Innovative the technology so it's smaller transistors 3 nanometer is the newer technology 5 nanometer is the previous newest technology so they go smaller and smaller and that means better and more innovative technology Taiwan semiconductors technology I'll go into a little more detail later about the breakdown of its technology and the breakdown of sales and the technology associated with each sales segment now an interesting thing to note here is that management saying that air related demand remains strong that's good news and now we've got two data points already in the last week or so that reiterates how strong AI Rel demand is remember a couple of days ago I released videos about asml which is a supplier to Taiwan semiconductor who is a supplier to Nvidia and apple and Qualcomm and others and asml also said a similar thing right they said anything related to artificial intelligence remains strong but what asml said is everything outside of artificial intelligence was not so strong tsmc is saying air related demand remains strong but also smartphone sales are strong so that's an added thing here we didn't see with asml so that's good news for also noting a bump in smartphone related demand and we're already growing to be accustomed with AI related Demand Being great and as Nvidia CEO Jensen hang has stated it's in insane how strong demand is from their perspective so management expects the good times to continue here Revenue expected to be between 26 billion and 27 billion for the upcoming quarter and so that would be an increase from the 23.5 billion it reported in the current quarter so they're expecting a bump of Revenue somewhere along the lines of 3 billion quarter over quarter which is a roughly 12 to 15% increase quarter over quarter year-over-year that growth is going to be much larger and so Taiwan semiconductor expects the good times to continue here with gross profit margin at 58% operating profit margin of 47.5% so sales growing operating and gross profit margins remaining elevated Taiwan semiconductor is not lowering prices to generate these increases in sales the increases in sales are coming as a result of organic demand for its manufacturing processes so it's generating organic demand it's not any kind of promotion incentive price discount Etc it's just the Innovation that's leading to this growing demand in the semiconductor industry so here's a little bit of a breakdown between the business segments and the revenue generated as a percentage from each business segment and unsurprisingly high performance Computing which is AI related increased to 51% of its total Revenue in the third quarter 2024 that's up from 42% of its Revenue in the third quarter of 2023 so the high performance Computing segment is growing to take a larger share of the company's overall revenue and that's likely to be more concentrated going forward as we're getting all of these data points suggesting that the AI boom is just getting started it has a long Runway to go and we're getting more data points in this quarter so far from asml and tsmc that the AI related demand remains strong Nvidia suggesting that demand for its latest generation technology demand is insane according to the CEO the CEO Jensen hang of Nvidia saying that its next Generation technology is sold out for all of 2025 and customers have to wait for more than a year for its products so AI does not seem to be slowing down and that's great news for the market overall because AI related Investments have been fueling the stock market growth here in 2024 along with the re receding fears of a recession as economic performance especially in the United States has been robust and from a geographic perspective revenues from customers based in North America accounted for 71% of tsm's Revenue in the third quarter of 2024 that's up from 69% in the same quarter last year China is becoming a smaller and smaller part of tsmc's business however China is still a big risk because of the continued threats they make to Taiwan and reintegrating Taiwan into China which is the reason why TSM has traded at a relatively cheap valuation the risks from the threats from China is what brings down the company's valuation the company's manufacturing facilities are based in Taiwan and if China were to attack that region it's uncertain how much of a disaster it could be for TSM now I highlighted that I've had TS September 10th reiterating that I thought the stock is a buy the stock price is up to $29 per share now up from around $90 per share to start the year 5 which is up from where it started the year trading at a price to earnings of around 15 but the company's performance has improved throughout the year its profit margins its Revenue its cash flow net income all of which have increased and the prospects looking forward have also improved given this new category of artificial intelligence that's now joined the company's uh revenue and profit category and taken a hold and become one of the largest categories for its business and it's now consisting of a greater and greater percentage of its business and it's a category that's growing very quickly and should continue to fuel Revenue profit and cash flow growth for TSM going forward so at a forward price to earnings of 25 I still think the stock is a buy of course I'm less enthusiastic about the stock at a forward PE of 25 than I was to start the year at a forward PE of 15 so the valuation has almost doubled from the start of the year but the company's performance has also improved so I still like the stock I still think Taiwan semi is a buy and I'll update that recommendation today October 17th d
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