저자: CathieWood · 외국인
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결론: ARK의 Cathie Wood는 테슬라를 강하게 낙관하며, 2026년 로보택시 사업을 핵심 동력으로 보고 목표가 4,600달러를 제시한다. 주요 주장: 내연기관차는 5~10년 내 퇴출되고 전통 자동차 업계는 전기차로 전환해야 한다고 강조한다. 근거 수치: ARK는 2026년 테슬라 모델을 업데이트해 로보택시 사업이 기대가치의 60%, 2026년 EBITDA의 절반 이상을 차지한다고 봤다. 2026년 매출의 57%는 전기차에서 나올 것으로 예상했다. 자본효율도 개선되어 2026년 추가 생산능력 단위당 투자액을 2,000~7,000달러로 추정했다. 목표가: 2026년 기준 ARK 목표가는 주당 4,600달러이며, 베어 시나리오 약 2,900달러, 불 시나리오 약 5,800달러다. 종목별 방향: 테슬라는 장기적으로 상승 전망이다. 2026년 이전 로보택시 출시 여부에 따라 모델 결과가 크게 달라진다는 조건이 붙는다. 매매 동향: ARK는 10월 한 달간 테슬라 주식을 두 차례 매수했다. 11월 초에는 Innovation ETF, Next Gen Internet ETF, 자율주행·로봇 ETF 등을 통해 테슬라 주식을 추가 매수했다. 주가 하락 시 저가 매수 성격이다. 리스크: 로보택시 출시가 2026년보다 늦어지면 모델 결과가 크게 달라진다. 9% 시나리오에서는 5년 내 로보택시가 상용화되지 않는다. 외부 전망: Ron Baron은 여전히 강세이며, Goldman Sachs는 목표가 305달러 매수 의견을 유지했다. 월가 평균 12개월 목표가는 302.5달러로 현재가 대비 약 53% 상승 여력이 있다고 본다. 최고 목표가는 760달러, 최저는 73달러다. 시장 평가: 테슬라는 S&P500에서 가장 변동성이 큰 종목 중 하나이며, 강세 측은 전기차 주도권과 에너지 사업을, 약세 측은 과대평가와 경쟁 심화를 우려한다.
다듬은 글
do you think it's possible for Tesla to eventually be unavailable to investors star investor Kathy Wood is extremely optimistic about Tesla's stock regardless of countless issues and roadblocks where will Tesla stock be in the coming months and years well wood seems to have an idea and you better not miss this one we think that gas-powered vehicles are going to be obsolete within the next five to ten years and the traditional Auto industry has to figure out a way to migrate into electric vehicles said Kathy Wood in a Yahoo finance interview get extra ten dollars cash open an account and deposit any amount on MooMoo it's a limited bonus for celebrating mumu's 10th anniversary check the link below MooMoo is a great platform to trade stocks with many unique easy to use tools I think a lot of you will find it really helpful especially if you want to be more Hands-On with your Investments for example find out the right time to buy and sell stocks Link in the description below wood and her firm arkinvest seem to be on on a Tesla buying spree in October alone Arc invest bought Tesla shares twice once in early October after Tesla announced Q3 production and delivery numbers and once again around mid-october after Tesla's Q3 earnings call in early October wood purchased 132 000 Tesla shares and production numbers through a press release for the second time in October wood bought another 66 190 Tesla shares during the first half of November Kathy Woods arkhen vest loaded up on Tesla shares in its Innovation Next Generation internet and autonomous technology and robots ETFs several days ago arcs Innovation ETF bought 27 594 shares in the second week of November while the next gen internet and autonomous Tech and robots ETFs gained 2909 shares and 9173 shares respectively it appears that wood and her furmark and vest are loading up on Tesla stock while the stock experiences a dip this is probably because wood believes that Tesla stock will soar Sky High in the next few years so she is taking the chance to buy more stocks while it is cheap in a late September statement by Arc invest CEO Kathy Wood she said that she is standing by her bullish bets on Tesla We Stand by all of them wood said when asked about her opinion on Tesla Roku and Bitcoin in the Yahoo finance interview ark's CEO Kathy Wood emphasized their belief that gas-powered vehicles are going to be obsolete within the next five to ten years and the traditional Auto industry has to figure out a way to migrate to electric vehicles in mid-october another Arc executive expressed optimism about the leading EV company during a CNBC Squawk Box interview Arc invest CFA Tasha Kini shared the reason for ark's positive stance on Tesla Kini said electric vehicles are just single digit percentage points of overall Auto Sales so we have to remember that it's still an early Market but we do definitely see Tesla as one of the market leaders both in electric vehicles and in autonomy arc's 2021 open source Tesla Model has since been updated due to material changes including autonomous ride hail assumptions and inputs Capital efficiency estimates and the forecast has been pushed forward by one year to 2026.
according to Arc Tesla's prospective Robo taxi business line is a key driver by contributing 60 percent of expected value and more than half of expected ebi TDA or earnings before interest taxes depreciation and amortization in 2026 across the simulation set they expect electric vehicles to constitute 57 percent of the company's Revenue in 2026 although at substantially lower margins than the robo taxi Revenue because of arc's increased conviction in Tesla's ability to achieve full self-driving they have to be updated with how the robo taxi business feeds into the model although in the past they predicted that Tesla will never be able to launch autonomous ride hailing recent positive Innovations from Tesla made them change their mind and assume its launch in 2026 four years later than musk expected they also suggest that Tesla will commercialize autonomous ride hailing in 2024.
however in nine percent of their model cases Tesla does not commercialize Robo taxis within the five-year window if and only if Robo taxi commercializes within the forecast window the modeled Financial results for Tesla are susceptible to the year of launch Arc invest's updated model also increases Tesla's Capital efficiency Tesla's capital expenditure per incremental unit of capacity had improved from around eighty four thousand dollars in 2017 when the model 3 was ramping up to around seventy seven hundred dollars in last year's model they estimated that Tesla would spend six to eight thousand dollars per incremental unit of capacity in 2025 given it's much better than expected Capital efficiency it may be safe to assume that Tesla will spend two to seven thousand dollars per incremental unit of capacity in 2026.
arc's price target for Tesla is 4 600 per share in 2026 with the updates in their recent model the bare and bull cases suggest that Tesla could be worth roughly two thousand nine hundred dollars and five thousand eight hundred dollars per share in 2026. if this happens Tesla stock will be impossible to buy for any average American and will only be affordable to institutional investors institutional investors do not use their own money but rather they invest the money of others on their behalf retail investors on the other hand are investing for themselves often in brokerage or retirement accounts The Arc invest team also pointed out that they expect Tesla's Robo taxi to be a game changer for the company by 2026 if Tesla successfully launches Robo taxis the expected value is the the average of all 1 million simulations said simulations are highly sensitive to the year when Tesla finally launched Robo taxis in most of arc's lowest price per share scenarios Tesla launches a vertically integrated human-driven ride hail service but does not launch a robo taxi Network while in other scenarios Tesla does not launch either service while the company has not committed publicly to launching human-driven ride hail Arc detailed previously the Strategic and tactical advantages of doing so importantly human-driven ride hell could become a profitable recurring Revenue stream before Tesla launches a fully autonomous service for cases in which Tesla launches a human-driven ride hail service and solves for fully autonomous driving Arc assumes that its human-driven ride hail cars will transition to the autonomous ride hell network over time if it is unable to launch a robo-taxi service within five years Tesla still could launch a human-driven ride hell vehicle while trying to solve for full autonomy on the other hand in ark's many higher price per share scenarios Tesla launches a robo-taxi network in the next two to three years in a published article arkhanvest stated that although tuned to our expectation for 2026 we believe our Tesla Model is methodologically conservative we assume that Tesla's stock will trade like a mature company rather than a high growth one in 2026.
even billionaire investor Ron Baron remains bullish on Tesla and in fact sees big opportunities amidst Market chaos moreover Goldman Sachs is staying bullish on Tesla stock despite a sharp sell-off in recent months we believe that Tesla given its leadership position in EVS including its vertical integration and tight coupling of hardware and software as well as its ecosystem of charging stations in brand and its focus on clean Transportation more broadly given its solar and storage businesses will be best positioned to capitalize on the long-term shift to EVS Goldman Sachs analyst wrote in a new paper looking at winners for from the shift to autonomous driving in mid-october Goldman reiterated a buy rating on Tesla shares with a 305 dollar price Target which assumes about a 45 upside from the current levels analysts said we expect Tesla to expand margins in the medium term as it ramps up the important model y product as well as new factories in Berlin Germany and Austin Texas and in the long term as it increases its mix of software Revenue Tesla's stock is almost always in the news because not only is the company popular but it also has grown to be one of the most valuable businesses in the world even after a relatively large sell-off in 2022 Tesla is still the sixth most valuable company in the entire world Tesla CEO Elon Musk was reportedly the richest man in the world as of November 2022 in large part although not exclusively due to Tesla's success although the average analyst rating on Tesla stock is by predictions for the company's future stock price very exponentially in fact Tesla stock price predictions are more variable than with nearly any other company in the S P 500 in large part because of the boom or bust mentality many have about the company bullish analysts and investors believe that Tesla will continue to take the leading role in the electric vehicle Revolution that has finally gained traction they also believe that Tesla will lead in other green energy Fields such as solar panels and energy storage devices bearish analysts and investors on the other hand feel that the company will fail to live up to expectations and will just become another production company rather than something Innovative and special Bears view the company as overvalued susceptible to competition and overly subsidized that said Tesla's stock price targets show considerable variation the average 12-month price target for Tesla stands at 302.5 cents according to NASDAQ which is a significant 53 percent above its current valuation however the most bullish 12-month forecast for Tesla stock stands at an incredible 760 dollars or a whopping 285 percent above its current price meanwhile the most negative analyst covering Tesla see shares dropping to 73 dollars within 12 months representing an equally incredible prediction for a 63 percent loss overall there's a wide variation within the investment Community as to the near-term future of Tesla subscribe to this Channel and have a great time watching
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