저자: Kevin · 외국인
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S&P500은 275일간 5% 이상 하락 없이 이어져 조정 가능성이 제기되며, 인플레이션·노동시장 우려가 이를 촉발할 수 있다는 시나리오를 소개. 그러나 발표자는 높은 실업률이 효율성 개선을 뜻할 수 있어 스태그플레이션 우려가 과장일 수 있다고 반박. 기술주와 리커버리주의 로테이션이 지수 하락을 막고 있다고 분석하며, 연말까지 5% 조정은 40~60%, 20% 폭락은 10~15% 가능성으로 제시.
다듬은 글
hey everyone meet kevin here is the stock market preparing for a big pullback and what could unemployment have to do with it first let's analyze this as cnbc pro ran a story this morning that said as of june 25th the s p 500 has gone a full 275 days since its last decline of 5 per more suggesting that the s p based on history they say is primed for at least a 5 pullback the last one happening in september when the s p 500 lost nearly 10 percent they say they say that the average time span between declines is 178 days making this stretch the longest stretch since and world war ii that we've gone without a rollover essentially a five percent in the s p 500 and so this got me thinking okay what what about the fact that we know that if inflation is here to stay we could easily see an s p 500 roll back and i got to my thinking myself well what could lead inflation to stay up and i thought to myself well jobs could especially when right along the same line we have an article from cnbcpro that says more people plan to quit as return to work plans go into effect and this segment here was very interesting they said in what's been dubbed the great resignation a whopping 95 percent of workers are now considering changing jobs and 92 are even willing to switch industries to find the right position according to monster.com most said burnout and lack of growth opportunities are what's driving the shift now this really got me thinking i thought okay well wait a minute wait a minute if people are thinking about quitting then businesses have to hire if businesses have to hire and they have to pay more money then that would rise input costs which might mean businesses would have to raise prices which is a form of inflation and if then inflation is here to stay and the s p 500 hasn't had a rollover in a bit maybe that could be the perfect storm especially since in three days we have jobs numbers coming out here on a friday at the beginning of july we're going to have our jobs numbers for june coming up those are going to be hotly watched and a lot of folks are wondering wait a minute we might not see the unemployment rate fall as quickly as we think which means even though unemployment is high because people are switching industries or as the chairman of the federal reserve says hey you know it's not that easy to take people's jobs away and throw them back in maybe unemployment's going to stay high a little longer and at the same time businesses are still going to have trouble finding workers leading to higher pay for workers when they get jobs and so now i just threw a whole bunch of stuff out at you we talked about the stock market potentially being due for a five percent pullback the s p 500 we know that workers are in demand but it's hard to find them even though the unemployment rate is high and even though unemployment benefits are expiring soon and we're worried that rising prices with workers especially you know especially at the same time as the economy potentially stagnates by us not seeing the unemployment rate go down we start wondering wait a minute are we setting up for something bad like stag inflation where all of a sudden the market isn't improving we're not seeing as many people go back to their jobs all of a sudden we start seeing inflation because businesses have to start paying more money and then we get that s p 500 rollback it's a pretty ugly scenario and what i'm going to do is i'm going to try to deconstruct the monster that i just created and try to see if i can explain my way out of this because this is a tough one and at the end i'm going to give you my odds in terms of what i think isn't going to happen but first let's try to unpackage this so back when covet happened what what happened people lost their jobs right and think about this for a moment practically as a business let's say you're apple and you employ i don't know 5 000 people at one particular facility you say you know what hey look pandemic we're going to work from home sorry 20 of you have to go and you lay off a thousand people horrible right thousand people get laid off pandemic happens okay it's done it's gone time to rehire so you laid off a thousand people do you bring back those same thousand people that no longer work for apple or do you start looking for potentially new workers who have a new enthusiasm for the business or maybe do you just bring back the best of the thousand well generally we believe that businesses always seek to become the most efficient operations they can so out of a thousand people who are laid off the expectation is that only about a third actually return this is according to the federal reserve only a third actually return to their prior job and we generally would expect that third to be potentially the most efficient third and so what's interesting about this is businesses even though they might want to hire a full thousand people back they basically had the perfect job interview for those thousand people they kept the most efficient folks and all of a sudden what happens to the corporation when they start hiring new folks even at higher prices what happens they're actually becoming more efficient because it's almost like and i know this sounds insensitive to say but it's almost like the corporations of our country all of them kind of went through a great weeding of either people who don't like their job or potentially just not getting everybody right but potentially weeding out people who don't like their job who aren't as efficient as they could be or should be uh or or maybe belong somewhere else and that's totally fine like just you could be a really hard worker you might just hate your freaking job you know what i mean so an interesting counter could potentially be that through this massive coveted transition yeah we're going to have higher unemployment but we could actually have a higher gdp more efficient businesses more profitable businesses and yeah higher unemployment because people are trying to change industries but maybe businesses don't need 10 people anymore maybe they only need five people and they're willing to pay those five people 30 percent more rather than that way hiring back all the people that were laid off actually hiring less yeah you're paying more but net net you actually have lower costs and see this is where the markets get really really complicated that it's it's not as easy to say oh my gosh mcdonald's is having trouble hiring people that's it inflation inflation it's never that easy there's so much more nuance that's required in this market this is what i also teach in my stocks in psychology of money group in all of my courses which has a coupon code expiring tomorrow evening it's 40 off link down below but folks take a look at this written down theory here okay so this is going to help us i think follow this a little bit better so the amount of workers go down at first right this means that input costs in aggregate so in total actually go down when you lay off workers now input costs goes up keyword right here per worker input cost per worker goes up now there are less people working at companies which is actually evidenced in itself by a higher unemployment rate i mean think about it if unemployment was 3.9 and now it's uh just a little over six percent well what is that signal well it signals that less people are obviously working at the same business as before because if we hired all the people back and hired more people back our unemployment rate would be lower and so this evidence says this idea of like okay we're going back we're hiring back we're getting that efficient back or maybe we're reshuffling people are going to different places and this means they have to retool and retrain a tech programmer who used to code in java now wants to code in a different script and they have to learn that to properly apply for a different job maybe they want to do python i don't know who's using java anymore anyway probably nobody but you know what i mean i'm just making an example and i ain't a computer programmer it's just an example but continue on with this that means we could literally have an environment where we have a higher unemployment rate but we actually have more efficiency so we're not stagflating we're actually becoming more efficient which means company margin actually goes up which actually means that gdp goes up which means more pay less people slower gdp growth the growth of gdp goes up slower it doesn't have to be parabolic anymore it can it can more slowly grow as less people work but it's going up based on earnings and profits and people spending more which people obviously have a lot more money and now all of a sudden you could actually be in a situation where ultimately this is the crazy part you end up with less inflation you have less inflation because companies are becoming so much more efficient and because of their hyper efficiency leading to a higher unemployment rate what might look like hey higher unemployment oh my gosh prices per job are going up oh my gosh inflation higher unemployment that sounds like stagflation that sounds bad what we've actually done is we've created a highly skilled and tooled efficient workforce with people more appropriately matched with their jobs or or to the jobs for their skill set this is interesting to me now i agree the s p 500 is probably due for a rotation but there might even be an argument as to why we're not seeing the s p 500 roll over the last s p 500 crash happened in september and that's when tech substantially rolled off and guess what else well before we had vaccines recovery stocks also rotated down so call recovery stocks blue and tech stocks green over here well what's happened since then well since then we've had vaccines all of them went to the moon uh that is tech went to the moon and recovery stocks went to the moon then all of a sudden we had tech stocks fall uh fall march uh and then may and now tech stocks are coming up take a look at this recovery stocks go to the moon but now recovery stocks are starting to trend down and the point is maybe maybe the reason we're not seeing the s p 500 roll over maybe the reason we've gone so long with no five percent decline in the s p 500 is because of these rotations that are happening right now where as tech goes down recovery goes up as tech goes up recovery goes down remember you've got about 50 50 in the s p 500 which is really really incredible so this is where we have to get to predictions so i personally think that between now and the end of the year we have a 10 to 15 percent chance of like a serious s p 500 selloff like 20 selloff i think is 10 to 15 a 5 sell-off is much more likely that could be forty to sixty percent likely that's not it's not uncommon so it's it's as likely to happen as it is not to happen especially if we get these rotations rotating around we stay flat for a little bit but then we get some kind of other shock temporarily five percent very easy to roll that over in the s p 500 absolutely could happen not something that i think changes the investing thesis at all i think the big takeaway though is when we think about inflation and jobs and high unemployment high unemployment can actually be a signal that it's not time to raise rates yet so you can actually end up in this crazy scenario where the fed delays raising rates or delays tapering because unemployment isn't recovering as fast as we think leading tech stocks to benefit as treasuries go down leading to the belief that there'll be less inflation by the tech now by by the fed not responding as soon and in a weird way we actually end up with the opposite of what seems to be in our face higher wages for workers which would imply uh higher inflation at the same time as a high unemployment rate which would imply stagflation so those are my thoughts hopefully you appreciate this perspective you
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