저자: Kevin · 외국인
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AMC 숏 스퀴즈는 한 번으로 끝나지 않고 복수로 발생 가능하다고 주장. 숏 비율이 1월·6월 초 등 여러 차례 급락 후 재증가(현재 약 18.7%)하며 세 번째 스퀴즈 셋업이라고 봄. 거래량 감소 추세를 주시하며 거래량 회복 시 추가 상승 가능성 언급. 본인은 AMC 주식을 보유 중이며, 7월 9일 만기 80콜을 매도했다가 환매해 약 1만 달러 수익 실현. 옵션은 자산의 1% 미만으로 운용한다고 밝힘.
다듬은 글
in this video you're going to learn about two big things the amc double squeeze and you're gonna learn how i just made eleven thousand dollars of profit in seven days on amc stock with a special type of call option strategy you're gonna wanna watch this one let's get into the content right now right after i mention that you should get 40 off the amazing programs link down below where i share all of my buy sell alerts all my strategies for options and trading in the courses linked down below with a sample coming up in this video the 40 off coupon code does expire in two days link down below hey everyone me kevin here let's talk about an amc a double squeeze and the potential for this first this video is actually inspired by a conversation that i had with a course member yesterday in the stocks and psychology of money group a course member was wondering hey kevin you know it seems like at one point you had indicated that there was a squeeze at amc and they were looking for some additional details on that because the implication was that maybe that meant i thought the squeeze was over which is not true now this particular course member is a course member of my real estate agent course and not my stocks in psychology of money group it's worth mentioning because i've made it very clear in to stocks and psychology of money course members that i believe there could be multiple squeezes at stocks that are responsible for increases in price rapidly that's of course not the only thing that leads to price going up but the reason this conversation got spawned is because there was some information circulating the internet yesterday that if you look at the beginning of june around june 2nd june 3rd and you look at the short interest of amc somewhere around 20 and then you compare that to the short interest where we were or are now i should say where we were on friday because we were talking about this yesterday or where we are now somewhere around 18 17 then all of a sudden we look and go wait a minute how did the price go from lows to where we are now if the short interest only went down two or three percent over the last essentially month that that seems odd that kind of implies like the squeeze ain't squeeze and don't get me wrong i'm not saying the squeeze is close i just think that there's no such thing as the squeeze that there are multiple squeezes that can happen now we've talked about why i believe this before in the past but it's worth just doing a short reiteration on this and then looking at some of the latest data so a very short sort of recap on this is if we go into the ortex chart we could see it pretty well here we could see short interest right here the estimated short interest as a percentage of free float which is the yellow line correspond with a potential rise in price and then a subsequent massive decline or rapid decline in the short interest percentage now because these are estimates of short interest percentage you do generally get a little bit of lagging data but what's fascinating is and these are the lessons that we could take away for the next phase take a look at this folks look at what happened with amc his is around january 28th at the bottom you're going to see those blue candlesticks those represent volume volume goes up dramatically price goes to the moon we get a gamma squeeze because people are buying out of the money call options that are going into the money and all of a sudden the price skyrockets up the next day and the next day we start getting short interest as a percentage of free float estimates coming out with settled t2 data and all of a sudden boom we see short interest percentage plummet but look what happens as volume subsides all of a sudden price slowly bleeds out at the stock and what do the short sellers do they reload the shotgun they set up for the next squeeze by increasing the amount of shorts they have helping drive the price down and bleed the price down now if we go to today virtually the same thing is happening so first of all if you compare the beginning of june right around here this is june 2nd as i said and you look at an estimated short interest percentage of free float of 17.47 and then you compare that to where we are now it's like wait a minute actually now with the latest data we're at 18 and so in the tweets that were circulating or the online talk that was circulating these lines were pretty much par and so the argument was hey there's there's no way the squeeze could be close but again to me there's no such thing as a singular squeeze a singular squeeze implies binariness it implies it either happened or it hasn't happened i personally believe that is a big mistake especially when it comes to a stock like amc in fact this was what the chart looked like yesterday when i did this research and this is using all or texts as well and right here you can kind of see the same thing it's like ah wait a minute like when you compare the left peak to the right peak it's kind of like if you just look at those two data points you don't realize that what happened in between was a bageled plummet in the short interest see the rumors that were circulating online were only circulating the data points for those two peaks and to me it kind of looks like an evil angry monster see if you put circles around the information that was circulating online it's an evil monster of disinformation or maybe i shouldn't say disinformation because i don't think people are intentionally sharing wrong information but it's an evil monster of misinformation it's very important that we look for inflection points in trends now folks make arguments that say hey look kevin like you know 18 percent short this is historically high this is true 18 is very high historically there are a lot of different definitions for what point short interest is deemed to be very high some articles say over 20 some say over 30 and that's when you get into the extremely high short category over 10 is deemed to be high short ultimately though to me we have to look at relatively how much are the short sellers concentrating into individual positions especially relative to the past and what's interesting to me is when folks say hey kevin the squeeze ain't squishy i'm like wait a minute wait a minute i'm not saying the squeeze is close i'm just saying a squeeze happened and i think we're setting up for another one i think there was a squeeze around january 28th when we just saw on the charts short interest plummet i think there was a squeeze right here on the left eye of this cookie monster or whatever monster you want to call it the misinformation monster i think there was a squeeze at this left eyeball and as short interest plummeted take a look at the chart that we have here as short interest plummeted what happened the price went up now remember the yellow line is lagging so it's natural for the yellow line to come after the green the point is the price went up squeezing the shorts out to cover shorts cover volume goes down after a big squeeze you go into a little volume hiatus which we've had over here little volume hiatus leading to lower prices at the same time as we start consolidating guess what happens the short sellers reload the shotgun they fill up the shotgun again ready to attack again folks this reloaded short interest of 18.72 percent is setting up in my opinion for the third amc squeeze we had one around january 28th we had one right here around the beginning of june the end of may and i think we're setting up for another one now now no guarantees pricing is higher now volume is also lower it's possible that some momentum has left amc for the time being as as folks have gotten distracted by you know oh maybe clove is owned by citadel and now all of a sudden clove is getting pushed and now it's workhorse or now it's there so now it's that fine whatever but the point is this latest data at 18.72 percent short with just 13.63 short interest as a percentage of free floats seven days ago in my opinion it's entirely possible we're setting up for another move which is really making me tempted to take some profits on my latest option strategy while amc has been trading sideways wait a minute kevin wait a minute how can you profit on amc stock when it's trading sideways when you said you were gonna have all of your shares and you weren't going to sell them well i'm not selling my amc shares in fact i still have them in fact i'm going to prove it to you and i'm going to show you how i just made eleven thousand dollars of free money boom that's right this is my amc position on weeble now you're gonna see this little 174 buy and sell you can kind of ignore that that was supposed to be a really quick swing trade but i had to go so i set a trailing stop and it stopped me out and because i put it through as a market order after the stop i ended up losing 20 bucks on that that was like like you could just ignore that because we want to talk about how i just made 11 000 actually a little bit over eleven thousand dollars eleven thousand five hundred twenty four dollars on amc trading sideways and why i closed it out okay you ready for this so what i'm gonna do is i'm gonna grab my order history here grabbed a couple shots i just executed these trades uh well actually the closing trade i just executed and so here you go this is a trade that i executed on june 21st as always to send all my buy sell alerts to everyone in the stocks and psychology money group that 40 of coupon code linked down below does expire in two days so here's what i did i've got my 75 000 80 000 whatever dollar position in amc and i've got about just over 1400 shares so what i did is i sold an 80 july 9th call on those amc shares so now that sounds bearish but it's not in my opinion because i'm simply trading my expectation is not to get called out at all and so what happened last week was i saw the short interest declining and well yeah june 21st i saw the short interest declining and i thought okay until we get the shorts reloading their shorts probably not going to see a new squeeze until we get reloaded up back to 18 19 20 which is kind of where we are now okay which is also why i'm closing that because i don't want to get called out i don't want my underlying shares to be at risk so i sold an 80 call for july 9th which folks is in like 10 days and i sold this call at 9 and 80 cents so what you do is you do 9 and 80 cents times 100 per contract times 14.
that means i got a 13 720 credit for giving somebody else the right to buy amc at 80 on july 9th but i thought it might trade sideways until we saw that volume coming back and the short interest going up now that the short interest is going back up i decided to close this position because i don't want to lose my shares i'm diamond handing those i just want to make money in the meantime and that's what you come to this channel for is to learn some perspective and how you can pick up some money in the meantime that's what i teach okay so today uh we we're seeing the short interest go up we also just saw a dip on the amc chart and so for me this was like perfect timing so if we go to the 5-minute amc chart i literally just executed this trade at it says here 1337 eastern which is 1037 which is basically right here as soon as i saw the reversal of prices going back up i knew it would become more expensive for me to buy that call back and close that position so as soon as i saw that reversal and i knew we were below the v-wap on that trading line i thought you know what this is a perfect time to buy back that call position that i sold so i bought back the call position at a dollar and 98 cents so i bought the same 14 positions back so i bought a callback and take a look at this i'll show you the calculation here i just made 10 976 dollars now i know i mentioned a couple seconds ago like 30 seconds ago or whatever that it was somewhere around 11 500.
my bad it was only a 10 976 dollars slight little math typo there but now we have it correct and again that's corroborated by the screenshots i showed i sold a call for 9.80 this is the sold call this is the money that i got uh i then subtract out what it cost me to buy that position back which was one dollar and ninety six cents leading to a profit of ten thousand nine hundred seventy six dollars in five six seven days so in one week i made a profit of eleven thousand dollars on shares that i'm diamond handing anyway so i basically got a free eleven thousand dollars with that move now it's going to be something to pay attention to right now amc stock has been fluctuating a little bit uh into in the day it did have at one point a relatively strong movement in the day i'm gonna go to the five-minute candlestick so we can see this a little bit better and then we'll also go to trade view we can see on the five-minute candlestick we're seeing volume evaporate a little bit right here and we are seeing a downtrend within the day could be a shorter term consolidation however my big thing looking forward for amc right now and over the next two three four weeks is really going to be watching for a a resurgence in volume which could potentially lead to another squeeze right now we're not quite seeing that yet however the day is not yet over on the 28th we already have a volume bar on the 28th that's larger than friday's volume bar given that we still have another two and a half hours of trading i would expect our volume probably is going to look a lot closer to june 21st june 22nd where we're somewhere around 150 million shares traded unless volume falls during the day i do think we're gonna be over a hundred million shares traded today which is going to be good if we get that cat that this continued push you wanna you're gonna watch wanna watch amc very very very carefully i also am going to be looking at this very carefully for options trading personally i'm i don't have any uh short-term call options i'd be maybe if i were looking at calls if i were ever going to do calls certainly i would go into this careful i would go in probably with 45 to 90 day calls at the shortest term and i would use that as a smaller portion of my portfolio or whatever i was willing to put on amc and then i'd probably go with jan 2022 call options if i were really planning for this this squeeze to come so for example i would stay away from anything uh sooner in my opinion and it's not financial advice just for entertainment purposes only i'd probably be looking somewhere at the aug 20s and uh let's get to calls not puts there we go so i'd probably be over here looking at maybe a forty dollar yeah forty dollar in the money call you've got some high implied volatility here so if this volatility goes down the value of these options is going to get crushed so you'd have to be really really comfortable that we're going to see and a third sort of squeeze sometime within you know the next two to three weeks that's going to be something to keep an eye on now what i'm going to do is also go out to jan and i would say over here in jan 2020 you probably want to look at also the 40s you've got massive open interest here the implied volatility is about 50 percent less it's still very high at 148 percent they're a little bit more pricey today if we get a red day tomorrow you could probably get a cheap deal on something like this out here personally and you know this i trade with less than one percent of my portfolio less than one percent of my portfolio is exactly what i trade with and so when i trade uh individual trades might only represent a quarter percent of my portfolio so by no means am i going uh all in on on any trade doesn't matter by conviction level i will go all in though on on long-term high conviction plays which of course we regularly talk about whether it's on the channel or in the stocks and psychology of money course link down below so uh we do have a little bit of this rotation here down on the minute chart for uh this is amc calls so let's go ahead and get amc chart itself up there we go now we've got amc up on the minute chart kind of rotating down here on the minute if we go out to an interval of five we're going to get a little bit of a better view on the actual day here let's go out to five minutes there we go this gives us a day view here on amc rotating back down to roughly where we opened we did open pretty much flat did run up about four or five percent now sitting around that 57 level i'm going to be keeping an eye on this if i were to buy a call it probably be over here and i don't know that i would sell calls at this point selling calls has been very profitable because the short interest has been falling and the implied volatility hasn't been so you've been taking big premiums by selling calls which i know some people hear selling call it's like oh my gosh that's bearish it's just a way to make money during a sideways trading market but with this cookie monster here on the uh short interest chart i would probably caution against new sold call positions with this short interest increasing here but keep an eye on volume so these are some of my thoughts uh we'll we'll see if i make any kind of trade i'll make sure to send out alerts as i regulate it regularly they do and stocks and psychology money that course coupon code does expire in two days and folks these are my thoughts on the setup for the double or the triple on amc uh sweets that is the third second or third squeeze however you want to look at it second recent third over this year squeeze for amc my though time you
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