저자: DanIves/Alex · 외국인
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트럼프 취임으로 규제 완화 기대, M&A 급증 전망. 소프트웨어·사이버보안 인수합병 활발 예상. 팔란티어·MS·구글·애플 등 기술주 긍정. 엔비디아 다우지수 편입 소식과 시가총액 경쟁 언급. Scott 측은 대형주 실적 대비 주가 한계 지적, 반도체 리더십 약화 언급.
다듬은 글
in your new note you say that more business deals are made when Trump is in office. Why is that the case?
Yeah, it's been a gold mine. I think regulation and overconfidence in valuations have been big problems, but now there will be a flood of mergers and acquisitions, especially in enterprise software and cybersecurity, in both the public and private markets. I think there will be a lot more going on. It's kind of like a tech prom where no one has really asked anyone to dance until now. I believe this will begin soon, and I believe there will be a lot of mergers and acquisitions while Trump is in office. That's in the public markets.
Then I'm going to come over to you, Alex. As we already said, you're an early-stage investor in both Pinterest and Ethereum, and you're in touch with the private markets a lot. So now that President Trump, or President-elect Trump, is in office, what does that mean for tech companies in the private markets? We had heard that valuations were under some stress before. Does that change now that Trump is back in office?
I believe private companies will do very well in the future. There are some companies, especially ones connected to Elon Musk like SpaceX, where the outlook is just very good. We've seen what Elon Musk can do when the White House is mostly against him. I think it will be amazing to see what he can do when the White House is neutral or on his side. I believe this is true in all private markets.
To be clear, Al, we were not on air. The name for it is the "Musk economy." This is a picture of what we call the Elon Musk business empire. In fact, there are a lot of them: The Boring Company, xAI, Tesla, SpaceX, and X itself. So when you look at these different companies, what kind of value increase do you think we have now that Elon Musk may be part of a government that seems to be more friendly in a way?
I think SpaceX and Tesla are so important that they helped Trump win the election. There should be less government oversight and a greater desire to build in the United States. This will allow for much faster construction of these potentially amazing infrastructures across the country, especially in the redder states that voted for him.
Dan, I'd like to talk to you again. In your new note you say that you expect to see more mergers and acquisitions, M&A, under a Trump presidency. We were together on Election Night, you were in the studio with us, and we were talking about this. We saw some stocks like Tesla go through the roof, and we've talked a lot about that. But you say you think other stocks will do well, like Palantir, Google, and Apple. Why does that happen?
This is going to be a great time for AI technology, and I think Palantir will be at the forefront of it all. Everything Karp and his team do, especially from the point of view of the U.S. Department of Defense, will cause a lot of money to be spent there. Look at Microsoft, Amazon, and Google. They are all hyperscalers. This is really going to be a new age of AI infrastructure. Also, when it comes to Apple, I think this consumer AI change goes through Cupertino, even though there are some worries about tariffs with China. That's why I think Trump's election brings all of this together for tech. I agree with everything Alex said. Great, amazing points. This is the start of a new era in the tech bull market.
Now that people think there will be less control, some industries have grown. Do you think tech will keep getting that much better in the future?
It looks like everyone agrees that Lina Khan will no longer work for the FTC and that the rules will be changed. Khan has been terrible for tech, and I think everyone agrees that when she's gone, everything changes. Some of the things Alex talked about, the rules will be so much better for deals and mergers and acquisitions as the regime change continues. I think big tech will become a little more aggressive when it comes to mergers and acquisitions, especially when it comes to AI.
Alex, let's talk about some of these big private tech companies. For example, SpaceX is worth $210 billion, OpenAI is worth more than $150 billion, and Stripe is worth over $65 billion. It's kind of like a sleeping giant. Does a Trump presidency make it more likely that these businesses will go public faster? Does it change how much they're worth? What does it do for businesses that haven't been in the public market yet but look like they might be ready to jump in?
Yes, I do believe the markets will open earlier now that we know for sure what will happen in the White House. I agree with what Dan says: the M&A market is open for business. It makes me happy to know that many of our friends are excited to start buying other businesses. This will help return capital, along with the IPOs that I think are going to happen anyway.
Nvidia is one of the biggest stocks in the market, and sometimes the biggest, because it goes up and down with Apple. I forgot to mention an important piece of news about it. Certainly, Nvidia is joining the Dow. The other day we heard that news. That will be Friday, before the bell rings. Just think about that for a moment. What does the fact that Berkshire sold its shares affect the way the stock trades for Apple? What does this mean for the way the stock trades for Nvidia?
I believe it keeps going. That's what makes it important. Getting rid of Intel and putting Nvidia in its place is a way of saying, "Hey, this is a company that's going to be there for a long time." There won't be as much of a good tailwind for the Dow as there would be for the S&P, since not as many people are buying it. This does, however, show that these items will be around for a while, which is great for the stock.
Okay. Nvidia is now briefly ahead of Apple in terms of market value. You can see that it's $3.38 trillion, instead of $3.82 trillion. That measure hasn't put it above Apple since June, so Nvidia is doing really well. Sorry, but I don't think either is suffering. It's a great market cap.
We're back now. After last week's earnings reports, most mega-cap stocks are down. The only one that isn't down yet is Nvidia. The news that the company will be joining the Dow this week has caused those shares to go up. Aswath Damodaran, who is the head of valuation at NYU Stern School of Business, is here to talk about the Magnificent 7. It's great to see you again. Thanks, Scott. You've had a chance to think about these as a shareholder and a viewer, which are both important to us. What did you learn?
It seems like these businesses are very good at making money these days. They look at what was expected, and they come in 2 to 3% higher. It's now time to ask why we even bother with forecasts when they're going to beat it by 2% or 3%. I think the real story is written in the earnings reports, and I think you can see it in how companies work. For example, Microsoft knows that AI's goods and services have potential, but they aren't living up to the promise in terms of making money. I then look at all of the companies and see that there are no big differences in either way, but I believe that what you should be seeking is a shift in the story, which is not present at this time. The story has pretty much been the same all year.
Have you ever sold any of your own shares in these companies? I just want to keep our people up to date, because as I said, you're not only an observer but also a fan of many of these names.
It's been about a year and a half since I sold half of my Nvidia. Since then, I haven't moved on any of them or bought more. I feel pretty good about what I own, because I think about how much I paid for these stocks, not how much they were worth two or three months ago. As an investor, all I need to do is be okay with the choices I've made.
You got into those names early, which is why you're a professor of finance at the Stern School of Business. How about semis? We talked about how Nvidia is putting Apple right at the top of the market cap list, even though it's had a great run. This market doesn't have an Nvidia stock. How are you going to rate the semis?
This is the one place I think you've really seen leadership break down, and this has been the case all spring, summer, and fall.
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