저자: DrydenPence · 외국인
요약 보기
Pence는 엔비디아 목표가 $350(현재 약 $219, 약 50% 상승여력)을 지지하며 P/E 약 22 대비 이익성장이 빠르다고 주장. 기업 56%가 AI를 도입했고 그중 71%가 생산성 향상을 보고, 통합 비중은 약 7%로 여력이 크다고 봄. 테스트 장비주(Keysight 연초 대비 약 66%↑, Teradyne 매출 성장 106%, Lumentum 약 130%↑ 등)를 AI 인프라 핵심으로 제시. 록히드마틴은 수주잔고 2,300억 달러로 3년치 매출 확보를 근거로 긍정적. ASML·TSMC·엔비디아 연결고리를 강조하며 AI 투자 참여를 권유.
다듬은 글
Thank you very much for being with us. Since you like Nvidia stock, let's talk about it, because they have a target price of $350. Do you see significant growth potential for Nvidia? And if so, why? Yes, I see. Nvidia remains a key player in the AI space, and they are absolutely indispensable to this growth, which is still impressive.
When you think about most of these tech companies, I like the fact that E ( profit) is growing faster than P (price). If you look at the P/E ratio, earnings are growing faster than quotes. Nvidia has it around 22, right ? Look at a company that's growing so rapidly, with earnings growth that's so rapid, and a forward P/E of 22.
So I think I'd agree with Bank of America on that. Yes. Incidentally, Bank of America said their forecast is tied to a $ 105 billion investment commitment with OpenAI . This is one of the reasons, along with many others, simply the changes and commitment that Nvidia is showing towards the benefits of AI.
We are waiting for monetization, but this only emphasizes the general trend. Is this true? I think so. But when we talk about AI, you have to remember that 56% of companies in America already have AI accounts and are paying for it. And of these, 71% demonstrate increased productivity . So if you think about it, only about 7% of them say they have fully integrated this technology.
You see a huge opportunity for AI integration, we're still building that infrastructure, and Nvidia and many other companies are absolutely indispensable in that. So I think we have a very strong long-term momentum, because ultimately, if AI increases productivity , people will buy it. If it didn't increase productivity , it would just be an interesting toy or entertainment.
Do you think they... well, this is not a Bank of America segment, but on the price target: we could discuss whether there is really a 50% upside potential if they say 350, at the current level of around 219. That certainly looks like an aggressive move. They're not saying 250. Do you really believe that some of these tech names can grow by 20, 30, 40, 50%?
You have a whole list of companies that we are going to discuss here. I mean Nvidia and Microsoft—they're two big brands that everyone knows and loves. Can the shares of such companies grow by 20, 30, 40, 50%? When profits grow by 20, 30, 40 or 50%, which is what is happening now, then the stock price becomes a record, because record profits mean record stock prices.
You mentioned another company—LMT, another brand we know. I want to go into detail about the chip hardware, but, you know, remember that too. When we talk about Lockheed Martin , we have to realize that the world will not sing "Kumbaya", we understand that. War is here, and it will always be. Lockheed Martin has a monopoly on replacing all Patriot missiles, THAAD systems, and F-35s, so their order book is $230 billion; This is income for three years ahead.
Show me another company that has three years of revenue guaranteed by a government contract . Such a company is probably worth buying. Of course. OK. So, we've looked at some of the companies from "MAG 7 " that you're following . Let's move on to semiconductor equipment and other companies that you highlight in this sector.
Tell us about these companies and the development of AI, because there are players that go beyond "Mag 7 ". That's right. It's not just about "Mag 7". These are all important components for the "Mag 7". So I'm highlighting four companies that we want to talk about, I call it " test, connect, and see, " and that's what I mean.
I mean, if you look at Keysight Technologies, which, you know, is up about 66% this year, they have some volatility. They'll be announcing earnings soon, but when you have 28% revenue growth and 42% profit growth—that's a number. But you know, AI has to work, and for chips to work, they have to be tested.
You don't want to build one of these data centers and then lose everything because of one or two faulty chips. So Keysight is doing testing to make sure that when the chip is installed, it works correctly, and that's very important. Or if you look at Teradyne, they're also a big tester of these kinds of things, and they again do tests to make sure, and their numbers went up 106%.
I mean, this is an amazing company, and again, this is a testing facility that guarantees the devices work before they ship. And then there's Lumentum, which is in lighting equipment, they grew by about 130%. When you think about the technology of transferring information between chips, factories, etc., it all goes through fiber optics; It's very fast, and the technology that enables it is becoming indispensable.
And the last thing we talked about—we can go back to any of these points if you want to dig deeper—is Teradyne, or rather Teledyne, and Teledyne—they are really the eyes of artificial intelligence. It helps, you know, we're just at the beginning of the journey in robotics and all these other things.
These are the companies, and their shares are up about 31% this year, but I think this option has a lot of potential for growth because it's the foundation for the AI vision. And we think about how that changes and evolves, because one of the points you talked about was that as AI evolves, chips become bigger, more complex, more expensive to manufacture, and therefore require more testing.
That's right. So it looks pretty simple to you. Undoubtedly. Just think about how much money you spend on some of these chips. You want to know how much you sell them for, right? You want to be sure that your product works, so companies that test them become critically important in this process. When we think about other areas, you mentioned cloud technologies and what we're seeing with the companies that you mentioned here, by the way, in addition to the ones we talked about—Microsoft and Nvidia, you mentioned other big names like Amazon and Google.
What are your thoughts on them? Since you also mentioned the records you're seeing there. Well, I think when you look at Amazon and Google, big tech companies are either big or brilliant . There are two characteristics. You're either brilliant and do one thing very, very well, or you're big and spend a lot of money on research and development.
And now, looking at Amazon, they have the resources to spend huge amounts of money on R&D. Uh, Microsoft, a lot of money for R&D. If they are the biggest, you spend this much money on research, 2% of sales, 2% of that amount. You will definitely come up with something. And I think they will continue to lead in this.
And you have some others. Me, I love it when we look at a company like ASML. ASML manufactures, they are the only ones who make these machines for extreme ultraviolet lithography. So they're absolutely, you can't have, it's like that. You can't have AI without Nvidia. You can't have Nvidia without TSMC.
You can't have TSMC without ASML. So you get all these necessary companies that will have full demand for them. I know you also had Micron on your list , and just the AI subscription, the AI adoption, and how that continues to grow. So you believe passionately in getting people to invest in this area.
OK. Me, I look at it this way. If you don't invest in the future, you won't be a part of it. Good. Dryden Pence, Chief Investment Officer of Pence Capital Management. Thank you, Dryden. It was nice to see you.
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