저자: TheMoneyGPS채널진행자 · 외국인
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빌 애크먼이 2020년 초 대규모 헤지로 큰 수익을 냈다가 다시 기업부채·상업용 부동산 리스크에 대비하는 신규 헤지를 걸었다는 소식을 다룬다. 애크먼은 과거 2.7억 달러 베팅으로 26억 달러 수익을 낸 뒤 이번엔 기업부채 관련 보험에 약 30% 규모로 신규 헤지를 걸었다고 설명. 이는 기업 디폴트 대비 목적이며 '우리는 위험한 시기에 있다'는 경계 발언이 핵심 근거로 제시됨. 상업용 부동산(CRE)과 CMBS 부실 우려를 강조. 뉴욕 맨해튼 은행의 대손충당금 적립(약 5,300만 달러), 시그니처은행의 상업용 부동산 익스포저 약 60%, 27% 주가 하락 등을 근거로 제시. 2008년 서브프라임 사태와 비교하며 은행 연쇄 리스크 가능성을 경고. 상업용 부동산 대출 손실이 2조 달러를 넘으면 미국 경제 전체가 타격을 받는다는 인용도 포함. 화이자 CEO가 코로나 백신 발표 당일 주식 약 60%(내부자 거래 지수 -62%)를 매도한 건을 문제 삼으며, 사전 계획된 거래 계획이라는 회사 해명에도 의혹을 제기. 진행자는 개별 종목 매수·매도 추천 없이 리스크 경계 메시지를 전달하며 신용 시장, 상업용 부동산 관련 우려를 반복 강조.
다듬은 글
as the market was falling in early 2020 most people were losing money some however were making more money than ever before in this case bill ackman made huge returns and then after a substantial profit was made he flipped it back and became bullish today he has suggested that it's time once again to become concerned investor complacency is the key word that he discusses so let's keep that in mind you came here for the truth so let me unveil that for you i'm going to discuss what's going on today in the markets and why bill ackman thinks that there is reason to be concerned after that i'm going to show you what one insider happened to do at the exact perfect time and how that relates to what we've seen the news just recently if i have time i'm going to get into some economic aspects and of course look at some technicals where i can there's a lot of detail in this one so let's begin bill ackman's single best trade of all time turned 27 million dollars all right into 2.6 billion and now he's trying it again if i forget to mention it or i don't have it listed here in the article as we'll follow through i just want you to note that i believe it's something like 30 of the size of the last trade so it isn't quite as significant and you know that if you play poker and so on if you want to be really convincing you got to go all in so this is not necessarily to the same degree as it was several months ago but he did mention a few things that i do believe are quite integral to everything that we've been noting over the last little while how all of the indicators have been flashing warning signs and they've been going crazy and yet you have seen nothing but piling in but the smart money has made some different choices if you look at the news articles if you look at what's happening with certain indicators they won't tell you that i mean look at the stock market itself look at the tech stocks i mean they're just non-stop going up and up and up but if you see for what is really there and you clear out all that nonsense it starts to make a lot of sense what he's saying quote we're in a treacherous time that's some very interesting words that he's using here and we'll look at some others before i show you the article from the financial times i just want to go further into this one the trade according to the financial times is virtually the same as the 27 billion dollar bet he placed eight months ago which earned him a whopping 2.6 billion and was hailed in an op-ed in the new york times as perhaps quote the single best trade of all time now you could see right here s p 500 a well-timed wager hedge on right at the peak and hedge off basically right at the bottom he got it really really good in terms of the timing and of course as a result the market during this period has done very well everything seemed to work out very good for him but now he's flipping that on once again so it kind of tells you that if he's onto something from the same situation that was going on eight months ago should we be listening this time around hackman places new bet against corporate credit and i just want to make something clear here when you look at what's going on with the corporate debt it is so important and yet you barely see anyone talking about this i have been harping on about it at least on a regular basis since 2019 i've been talking about the triple b rated debt i've been talking about corporate debt in general which has skyrocketed higher and higher and there has been very little concern there have been a few notes here and there i have definitely shown you the charts surrounding it and we finally have some bets against it showing you that as he notes here the complacency surrounding this is very dangerous and that's what i wanted to note let me show you further into this article at the start of this week he put on a new trade hedging his equity exposure with insurance against corporate defaults quote i hope we lose money on this next hedge we're in a treacherous time generally and what's fascinating is the same bet that we put on eight months ago is available on the same terms as if there had never been a fire and on the probability that the world is going to be fine and that is such a good quote so please remember what he is saying here don't worry about his trade don't worry about what he does and the fact that he's trying to make it seem like oh you know i'm not trying to benefit off of this come on just be honest this is the way the world works you're betting on this system you're doing things legitimately according to the rules and so this is an opportunity for you for those who take it but what's important to note is what he's saying here we're in a treacherous time generally and what's fascinating is the same bet that we put on eight months ago is available on the same terms as if there had never been a fire and on the probability that the world is going to be fine those two things are just unbelievable to think about and what we've gone through this whole year how crazy 2020 has been and he's saying here that it's available at the same situation the same terms and that to me is so shocking but it shouldn't surprise us because everything is this topsy-turvy madness that seems to just continue on and on he said that the new hedge is close to 30 percent of the size of the bet that he placed in late february when he bought a huge insurance policies linked to 71 billion dollars of corporate debt so i am definitely very interested to see how this proceeds any information further i'm obviously going to bring it to you at this time this is what we have the quotes here himself he gave us the numbers surrounding it so we know that this guy is going to make some serious money if this goes his way but nobody ever really knows but we can actually see it as it happens with all of these public companies we would definitely know as this uh time goes you know probably within the next few months so we'll see as you know one of my favorite topics commercial real estate as well as the commercial mortgage-backed securities check this out mounting commercial real estate losses threatened banks and the recovery buried in the fine print of signature banks third quarter earnings was a hint of the financial storm that could be about to break over the u.s economy i've been highlighting this nonstop non-stop because it is so critical to understand it's obvious that we've got problems in the retail space in the office space and what we are are looking at with all of the derivatives that interconnected i mean it is quite clear that that's a big issue how this you know goes and finds its way into the other banks and institutions the insurance companies and so on that remains to be seen that is something that has to happen and we sort of pick up the pieces as we go along but we know that the problem lies right here the manhattan bank last month set aside nearly 53 million dollars to cover potential loan losses largely due to the issue of 2020 and its impact on the us economy they're saying here basically that lending money to shopkeepers landlords and hoteliers in places such as times square or soho used to be considered a sure thing but now the whole place is a quote ghost town so that is forcing some of the borrowers to stop making loan payments and we know what has occurred you've seen it the moratoriums are there rent's not getting paid all the mortgages don't get paid you have a cascading event that takes place but the government is sort of trying to bail it out i'll try to paper over it and we know that that hasn't worked so far but certainly we will see as time goes on if this can actually unravel the whole deal at this point we don't really know it's not there yet now signature which has nearly 60 of its portfolio portfolio tied up in commercial real estate is bracing for the fallout the banks bad loan write-offs through though still modest are creeping higher despite years of steady profits investors have punished the stock which even after a recent rebound has lost 27 percent of its value this year and i just wanted to note it's not just one bank we see this all the time they're highlighting it in this article but we know just like last time think about what happened during the financial crisis oh no everything's fine it's just subprime don't worry it's just subprime so we're going to contain that subprime mortgages all good and no need to worry and then all companies all over the world started to think that you know this is it this is going down this company is going out of business that company's going out of business that insurance company suddenly at risk it was crazy if you read about what happened not just there's a few good movies about it but you got to read those books because it gives you all the details you knew how really interconnected all of these were if u.s banks absorb big losses under 2 trillion dollars in commercial real estate loans the entire us economy will suffer that's a quote all right that's a quote just the fear of looming bankruptcies and defaults has prompted banks in recent months to restrict new lending when of course they need more lending is what they want anyway because that would get the economy going so definitely check this one out you know keep your eyes posted on what's happening with the commercial real estate the mortgage-backed securities and how dangerous this really is to the economy as a whole you may have heard that pfizer made an announcement everything's going to be great 90 efficiency oh it's so fantastic well isn't this interesting that the ceo of pfizer sold 60 of his stock for 5.6 million dollars on the day of the announcement but the firm claims it was all part of a pre-announced trading plan agreed in august that's right i posted about this on my blog or community section of the channel and while most people completely understood what i was talking about some were saying no no no this is impossible i had comments regarding the 60 saying that's not true that it wasn't 60 and i also noted the fact that some people say that it is completely coincidental look i don't know what's going on but maybe just maybe they waited they delayed the announcement particularly for this i mean it is the ceo it's not some sort of director it's not even one of the other executives we're talking about the ceo this guy would know when these are going to be announced and perhaps said you know can we really sit on this particular day knowing exactly what happened i don't know i don't know what's going on internally in this company i have no idea all i can do is present you with this information and it just seems just really really coincidental what do you think post it in the comments i don't just show you this from an article i think that was the daily mail i actually give you the sources themselves number one looking at the sec's own website you can see it here you can see the trade you could see exactly what happened i do not give you the sources as if they're from the news articles or are the source no i actually show you the documentation now this happens to be the sec that's the official paperwork that goes through these forms have to be filled out there are all different types of forms that go through the sec and i've shown you many others if you want to know how to find any of the insider trading that happens i have a video about it which i will link to at the end of this video so you can get it there okay if you go to that video it's in my e-course which is free you will see how to do that on your own don't trust me don't trust anybody else don't trust cnbc or the daily mail do it for yourself this right here gives you a breakdown of exactly what he did in this trade you can see insider name albert borla i believe that's how you pronounce it and it shows you own minus 62 so for anybody who is rejecting me on that it's not the daily mail saying it in fact the number is even bigger it is minus 62 percent so regardless information's all there for anybody who chooses to find it out and you know do what you wish with it all i'm saying is that is highly suspect it is extremely coincidental and i want to know what you think so please let's all share in the comments i'm going to end the video there if you found it informative please hit that thumbs up button when you do you are supporting me so i want to thank you for that if you want to learn how to sell stuff online you can go and click around here and there and get confused with all that information or you can just get it for free all documented everything at the amazon gps.com do you want to know information regarding the financial system how it all works everything from top to bottom a to z well i've got it all in these two books explained so easily and you can check it out right here at the link in the description if you want the audio book instead you can get it at the themoneygps.com wait a second don't go anywhere i told you i would share that video with you this is the one to see the insider trading definitely check it out click it and i'll see you there
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