저자: 미상 · 외국인
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버핏의 대규모 자사주 매입 전환 결론: 버크셔는 3분기에 역대 최대인 약 90억 달러 규모 자사주를 매입했고 현금은 약 1,460억 달러로 줄었다. 버핏·멍거의 매입 배경: 2018년 7월 이사회가 정책을 바꿔 주가가 내재가치 아래일 때 자사주 매입을 허용했고, 기존에는 장부가 대비 20% 이상이면 매입이 제한됐다. 자사주 매입의 의미: 진행자는 자사주 매입을 주가 부양 수단으로 보며, 내부자·보유자에게 이익이 돌아간다고 비판했다. 미국 민간부문 금융자산/GDP는 6.2배로 역사적 최고 수준이라고 제시했다. 목재 가격: 목재 가격이 기록적으로 급등했고 주택 리모델링 수요가 강하다고 언급하며 목재 관련 자산을 거론했다. 좀비 기업: 이자도 못 내는 좀비 기업이 증가하고 신규 창업이 감소하고 있다는 WSJ 기사를 인용하며 경기 약세를 우려했다. 실업과 소비: 피해 업종의 실업이 지속되고 일부 사업체 폐업이 예상되며, 경제 약세가 장기간 이어질 것으로 봤다. 항공·기타: 항공업 회복은 당분간 어렵다고 봤고, 로봇을 통한 재활용 수거 등 자동화 흐름도 소개했다. 진행자는 특정 종목의 단기 가격 방향을 명시적으로 예측하지 않았다.
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the investing world has ignored warren buffett for his lack of mega purchases throughout 2020 and even beforehand there is a desire to always buy more no matter what the conditions are buffett's philosophy is one of patients only by a stock when it makes sense and for the most part charlie and warren didn't put that much capital to work their cash pile grew and they were simply waiting but just recently they accelerated purchases interestingly their biggest purchase wasn't apple or amazon it was much closer to home you came here for the truth so let me unveil that for you we are going to talk about warren buffett we're going to look at some economic indicators some stocks some issues that are happening today that need to be outlined i want to bring it to you as fast as i can let's get into it right away buffett leans into new way to use cash with buybacks surging that's where the money's going that's what he's doing with it charlie munger and warren buffett have decided to deploy a lot of that capital not to an external company but in fact to buy back their own shares third quarter buying spree takes 20 20 total to 16 billion dollars i'll show you some other information in just a second but just the buybacks are billions and billions of dollars that is massive the famed investors berkshire hathaway spent the third quarter buying back about nine billion dollars of its own stock more than had repurchased in any full year in its history so i'm just trying to give you an example of what we're seeing right now this is massive even for a company of this size with this much cash here's some more information from business insider the billionaire investors company bought back a record nine billion dollars of its shares and spent a net 4.8 billion dollars on stocks after selling a net 13 billion in the second quarter so they really reversed this process in the third quarter just like many other investors certainly did they were piling on more and more we saw that however things have changed since and the market is quite rocky the tech stocks have definitely done well but there are some that have been moving up and down berkshire's increased spending meant its cash pile shrunk by about 1 billion dollars to below 146 billion but understand that is still huge i've got some charts to show you that will give you a perspective on that but essentially this is what we are dealing with today if you want to dig into more detail and you want to know exactly what warren buffett bought what warren buffett sold go to the very end of this video i have an entire breakdown of how to get that i made a video about this i put it in my free e-course for everybody to check out so i'll link to it at the very end of this video and it will take you to the playlist that has that information for you warren buffett's firm ramped up the repurchases of stocks and you could see from the third quarter of 2018 up until the president i mean it is very clear what they've been doing as they've been running into these conditions they didn't go out there and purchase as many of the other stocks they thought the best thing to do would be use the cash that they have on hand and buy their own i just wanted to add this note here berkshire's board announced the policy change in july 2018 that allowed buffett and his business partner charlie munger to buy back stock when the price is below whatever they consider brookshire's intrinsic value previously they couldn't make repurchases if the price was more than 20 above current book value so it doesn't matter what's going on today in the markets because they're always going to be able to change the rules for themselves so that they can do things like this buyback shares of course is a manipulation of the stock price and the those who hold the stock get the benefit from it particularly the insiders not necessarily at berkshire hathaway but of course we see this in a lot of the tech companies this is how they're able to profit on the way up and they simply sell as that process happens right here really quickly this concept of reallocating capital to shareholders was just not necessarily a tenant of berkshire's operating policies in this environment it's getting harder and harder to justify holding onto billions and billions of dollars in treasury securities so that is of course very true they're making very little money from that kind of investment so they have to put somewhere where the average shareholder could see benefit and of course you don't want to have a stock that's basically going sideways if the market is going up and you want to keep those shareholders holding those shares of course you've got to do something and all they do is buy back their own shares and it pushes the price up along with it berkshire cash and short-term investments and you could see what had happened just recently it's off the peak of where it was but i mean at this point is just absolutely massive this chart goes back to 2010 and it's just been on average moving higher and higher they've got more money i mean they could basically buy any company if they want to and warren buffett has said publicly we want to buy we really do but there isn't that much now it's not saying they haven't bought a bunch of things i think it just said what was it four or five billion dollars worth but still they're holding on to all of this cash just waiting so i'm interested to see how much they buy if the prices do fall to an actual realistic and deserved level take a look at this chart u.s private sector financial assets as a percentage of the gdp is at all time highs they're showing you right here it is 6.2 times and it's nowhere near where it was from the 50s all the way into the 90s and suddenly after that it just went haywire if you notice also it's much more erratic when there are crashes when there are recessions this tends to go all over the place and before you know it is up it's down and so on but not to this degree today it goes all over the place and that's why you have so many layoffs and you have such change in sectors and everybody is going crazy for a little while because of the excesses it works the same way on the way up as it does on the way down i told everybody not to buy seven shares of amazon and instead buy seven two by fours buy seven pieces of plywood because this is where the money is at lumber sellers raking record profits on home renovation binge i have heard from people who are doing renovations who are doing building that the cost to do business has increased significantly wood is very expensive right now if you are experiencing this you have heard anything you've been to home depot or something like this let me know in the comment section if you could give any information on that i would definitely like to see that i know the statistics and i know who the from the people i have heard from but of course i want what you have to say in those comments definitely let me know this is the chart that corresponds to that and it is clear it is obvious a spike like this hasn't been seen before and that's partly because of what was going on with the supply chain you know that but today now that search has really taken it on its own i'm interested to see if it actually goes another leg up from here that would be very unusual but certainly possible i'll keep you up to date there's a lot in this wall street journal article in fact i was going to break it down a lot further but i thought i would just show you what's going on on the left-hand side of the screen and then maybe if i can on a different day a different video i will highlight the other contents but just take a look at this the zombie economy ever fewer startups are launching in the u.s while the number of publicly traded companies that can't even pay interest on their debt is growing the charge at the top start up rates for u.s firms and this has declined it's hard to tell on the chart here i would say 14 down to about let's say 8 or so and then this one which is really what i wanted to show you the percentage of zombie firms it is essentially non-existent until we get into the 2000s and it goes haywire but the problem that i see is not the fact that there is zombie firms that these companies do exist at all of course you're gonna have problems from time to time but they never get resolved and that's allowed to just continue on and on how many companies do you know of that are just an idea ideas are fantastic we need that we need innovation we need things to happen we need progress we need development okay that has to happen that's great and for a period of time you can be you know losing money and i get that there are the first few stages how many businesses if you're a business you own your own business or maybe you know somebody or so on those first few years are a struggle it might be painful for so many but if you can excel if you can actually do well throughout this period then you're rewarded later on you put in the work at the beginning and you get to reap the rewards later on and then you have a situation today where those companies that really never turn a profit that are just bleeding out the cash they are able to just profit from the system of debt and the way that it works seemingly for a long long period of time that's not good what kind of progress is that i can see it enriching certain people okay fine but the progress the innovation and actual development i am not seeing that and this is all interconnected with what we look at when we look at the zombie firm data as unemployment remains high in sectors that have been hit hard giving to charity or directly to others is another way some people are spending and i thought it was interesting because they were saying look some people are being hit really hard by this other people are doing well and they just give you a breakdown i'm not going to get into all the details but they give you a breakdown of certain examples where a lot of money was flowing in to help certain people certain groups of people millions of dollars in donations it's just some examples here they are just showing you where the money has gone and for some groups you're seeing how this has been extremely bad extremely difficult businesses are shutting down i'm looking at some places around the world where there are predictions of as much as 50 of the businesses will likely have to close the impact of that is just it's impossible it's impossible to know the effect of that i don't know if that's going to be the case 50 but what i think will happen here as we move into 2021 looking at a lot of the businesses that are just you know we'll call them zombie firms even the small mom and pops where they're they're open maybe they're running off the ppp loans maybe they're running off of steam essentially but that cannot last forever and then at the end of it all maybe you know towards the end of 2021 or something they just call it quits and that's truly unfortunate and the economy is going to see that weakness over a period of time instead of just taking the hit now as hard as it might be and then it can reverse quickly it's just going to be a long drawn-out process the airline industry you know it i know it it's not doing well doesn't look like it's going to be doing well anytime soon i thought this was interesting air charter service unveils quote weddings in the sky package so they talk about it here i think it's like 20 000 or something they take you up in the air for two hours you bring a bunch of people on board and you could do your wedding in the sky i think it's creative i think it's interesting i wonder how many people will take part in this it's just something i wanted to show you here's another robot that they are using that apparently will be going around the streets and picking up recycled uh products that they find and i'm interested to see how this will actually be rolled out in the future when we look at it it's still early it's still something that i'm sure they're just trying out at this point they're not necessarily going to be you know on the streets everywhere but this is the direction that they're trying to head for so many different places and i'm interested to see what happens with this and the effect on the jobs of these people who were picking up the trash who were flipping the burgers and so on that's all for this video if you found it informative hit that thumbs up button when you do you are supporting me thank you very much if you want to learn how to sell stuff online i have a free e-course you don't have to pay a dime definitely check it out at the amazon gps.com the financial system is complex it's convoluted it's difficult to understand intentionally simply because they made it this way it's confusing on purpose if you want to learn check out the links in the description if you want the audiobook instead themoneygps.com this was the video i'm talking about if you want to see it definitely click on it and i'll see you there
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