저자: 미상 · 외국인
요약 보기
Golden Butterfly는 주식(전세계 대형주 20%), 소형가치주 ETF(WSML 20%), 장기국채 ETF(IDTL 20%), 단기채/현금(20%), 금 관련주 ETF(ETLX 20%) 5개 블록으로 구성된 저변동성 포트폴리오다. 1995~2023년 연평균 7.8% 수익률, 최대낙폭 12.5%를 제시하며 Ray Dalio의 All Weather나 60/40 포트폴리오보다 방어력이 좋다고 주장한다. 다만 과거 데이터에 기반한 설명이며 소형주·금광주는 변동성과 위험이 크다는 점을 언급한다.
다듬은 글
And what if I told you that there is an investment portfolio called Golden Butterfly, which for decades has outperformed Ray Dalio's? Higher returns, fewer drops in times of crisis; the best can easily replicate this with a few well-chosen assets. In this video I'm going to tell you how it works, why it has given such good results, and how you can build it step by step.
If you like this type of content, follow us because we talk about finance in detail here . Let's see. Investing should be easy. You choose a good portfolio, hold it for the long term, and that's it. At least that's what we've always been told. The classic recipe is the same as always. 60% for stocks, 40% for bonds, balance, diversification, common sense.
The problem is that in recent years that formula has stopped working as it used to. In 2022, for example, stocks fell, but so did bonds, and that supposedly balanced portfolio plummeted by more than 16%. And the more sophisticated alternative, the famous All Wither portfolio by Ride Dalio, which I recently brought to this channel, very well thought out, okay?
But it 's not as consistently profitable as many believe. During the same period, it also lost more than 15%. So what do you do? So, are you resigned to losing money every time the market sneezes, or are you looking for a portfolio that not only withstands crises better, but also takes advantage of growth cycles?
That's where the Golden Butterfly comes in. This is a portfolio designed for lazy investors, literally. This is how Tyler, its creator, described it in 2015, in an article called Catching a Golden Butterfly, published on his website Folio. The idea is quite simple: to build a portfolio that allows you to sleep soundly in times of crisis, but also takes advantage of times of prosperity.
As? by dividing the investment into five equal blocks of 20% each. Global stocks, small cap stocks, long-term bonds, short- term bonds, or cash and gold. It's like mixing the best of the Google Heads portfolio, which we've also seen in the channel, that seeks long- term growth, with the defensive philosophy of the Harry Brown Permanent portfolio, which we 've also seen in the channel, but with a small extra return thanks to the boost from Small Cap Value.
It's not magic, it's balance, and that's why , although it's not as famous as Raidalio's, its numbers speak for themselves. But first let's look at its composition. It is built with five blocks, as I told you, each one represents 20% of the portfolio and each one fulfills a very clear function within this set.
First, 20% goes to total market stocks, that is, large, global companies that lead growth in good times. Second, another 20% in small cap value stocks. This is the most aggressive part: small, cheap companies with the potential to multiply, but also more volatile. The third, 20% to long-term government bonds .
This is where pure defense comes in . When there is a recession or interest rates fall, bonds rise. Fourth, another 20% to short-term bonds or directly cash. This part is your mattress. It doesn't rise much, but it doesn't plummet either, and it gives you flexibility. And finally, gold, the other 20%, whether physical or through an ETF, is there to protect you in times of inflation, uncertainty, or financial catastrophes.
Together these five blocks function like a butterfly with balanced wings. If one part falls, another rises. Each wing compensates for the other. It doesn't fly fast, but it flies steadily. And most importantly, it crashes us when turbulence hits. What makes Golden Butterfly special is not only its composition, but how it performs in different economic environments.
In times of growth, stocks pull the cart. In a recession, long- term bonds step in to pull the cart. If there is inflation, gold will do its part. And when all else fails, cash prevents greater evils. Each block is there for a reason. He doesn't try to predict the future, he simply adapts to it. Let's get to the important point.
How can you build this portfolio in a simple way, and as its name suggests, it is a lay portfolio, a portfolio for lazy people. The idea is to make it as simple as possible, with few assets and without complicating your life too much. Let's start with a budget of, say, €10,000, and the first part of that portfolio will go to total market stocks, that is, to the world's largest companies.
This is going to be the part I'm going to spice things up the most by doing a bit of stock picking, choosing shares directly. Of those €10,000 we will allocate €2,000 to this block and the idea is to distribute them among large companies with a greater presence in the United States , but without forgetting some international exposure.
How do we do it? Well, it's very easy. You go to your broker and choose the stocks you like best from among those with the highest market capitalization worldwide. For example, to maintain some diversification you can choose four companies, three from the United States and one from Taiwan. This also crosses sectors: financial, technological, and basic consumer goods.
One possible option would be this: Alphabet €500 to cover technology. Taiwan semiconductor, another €500 also from the TCH sector, but outside the United States. GP Morgan 500 plus, here you would have the financial part, and Walmart with the last 500 as a representative of basic consumption. And with that, we would have the first 20% of the portfolio assembled.
The second part of the portfolio is allocated to shares of small and cheap companies, that is, what is known as Mall Cap Value. Here we are talking about companies with low market capitalization that, according to their fundamental metrics, are cheap. Companies that trade at low multiples, whether in relation to their profits, sales, or book value.
And this block is precisely the one that can have the greatest impact on long-term profitability, but also the one that can fall the most when the market suddenly turns around. And of course, if we've already included four stocks in the first block, the most sensible thing to do here is not to complicate things and do it with an ETF that represents everything.
So the option I'm going to use is a thematic ETF that invests directly in these types of companies, for example, the Esers MSCI World Small Cup Usage ETF with ticker WSML. This exchange-traded fund replicates an index that includes more than 3,300 small companies from 10 developed countries. And if you look at its composition, the United States stands out especially with more than 60% of the total weight.
Then we have Japan with 12%, and the United Kingdom with 5%. In addition, the fund's replication is physical, but by sampling; that is, it does not buy absolutely all the companies in the index, but rather a representative selection, assigns them the corresponding weight, and reinvests the dividends.
So you don't have to do anything with them. And if we talk about numbers, in the last 5 years it has had an accumulated return of 62% with a volatility of 18.3 in the last year. Its maintenance cost is 0.35, which is quite good for this type of ETF. However, since we are talking about small caps, it is important to understand that this segment can provide good returns, but it will also be the one that suffers the most during downturns.
So you have to go in with that mindset. By the way, in the description I've included different brokers that you can use to buy stocks or ETFs with very competitive commissions. If you're listening from a Latin American country, I've also included a link to a blog where you can see the best blocks based on your country of origin.
And here's one too if you're from Spain, with very competitive fees that will surely help you. Let's move on to the next section, 20% of the portfolio will be allocated to long-term sovereign bonds . We are talking about bonds issued by governments with the highest credit quality and typical maturities of 20 or 30 years.
Why do we want to include this? Because this part of the portfolio fulfills a very clear defensive role. When there is a recession or deflation, central banks usually lower interest rates, and when that happens, the price of these bonds skyrockets. So when the stock market crashes, this part will act as a counterweight and help cushion that fall.
To invest here, let's look at an example, for instance, the 20-year USD Tressurbond with the ticker IDL. This fund replicates the ICE US Treasury 20-year index and also physically invests on a sampling basis in US Treasury bonds with maturities greater than 20 years. It's more than 20. And in this case, it does distribute dividends in the form of semi-annual coupons.
In fact, its current dividend yield is 4.75% per year. However, if you look at its 5-year profitability, it has fallen by 40%. It 's not exactly attractive at first glance, and in the last 3 years it has dropped by almost 30%. But be warned, this ETF is n't here to make you money during boom times; it's here to support your portfolio when everything else falls apart.
Its function is defensive, nothing more and nothing less. Its very low ter of 0.07% and its volatility is over 15%. So it moves, but it's designed for specific moments when the market trembles and rates fall. This block is probably the simplest of all. There's no need to buy anything here or look for sophisticated products.
The next €2000 will literally be in cash, but that doesn't mean you have to leave it there just sitting around, okay? Ideally, you should put them to work, even if it's in a very conservative way, for example, in a euro-denominated savings account that pays you interest. I'll leave you with an interesting one here, a broker that has a high-yield account and can give you interest on the money you would normally have in your regular bank account.
If we had 2% annually, you would already be more or less matching the current inflation. And if you can avoid currency risk, all the better. The advantage of this type of account is that it allows you to maintain liquidity, meaning you have the money available whenever you want, without penalties or blocks.
Interest is calculated daily, so you can deposit and withdraw without fear of losing profitability. Yes, they are usually paid at the beginning of each month, okay? And if you're willing to take a little more risk, you could also open accounts in dollars or pounds where some entities offer up to 4% annual interest.
But come on, this part of your wallet is your cushion; it's not going to grow much, but it's not going to sink either. It's there to give you flexibility, peace of mind, and some profitability without taking almost any risk. And with that we come to the last section. The remaining €2000 is earmarked for gold.
Here are several ways to do it. You can buy physical gold, ingots, or coins, or invest in products that replicate the price of gold. For example, ETCs backed by real gold bars or ETFs that invest in companies dedicated to their extraction. In this case, I'm going to go for the second option, gold paper.
Because? Because it offers much more liquidity and because it tracks the behavior of the metal quite well. An example could be the LIG Meaning Usis ETF with ticker ETLX, since it gives you exposure to companies whose revenue depends largely on the price of gold, more than 50%. And what's interesting is that these types of companies tend to amplify the movements of the metal.
When gold goes up, mining companies go up even more. The ETF's top 10 holdings represent about 70% of the fund and include names like Newmont, Agnico, Eagle, Anglog, and Asanti. Newmont alone, for example, has a weight of 14.6%. And as for the fund's data, it has a 5-year cumulative return of 60%. It does not distribute dividends, it is an accumulating fund, its TER is 0.55%, and its volatility is logically high at around 32% in the last year.
However, by investing in companies and not directly in the metal, this fund carries more risk. It may be affected by the bankruptcy of some of the companies that make it up, but even so, considering that gold has doubled in value in the last 3 years, this is still a pretty attractive way to capture that upward movement it is having.
Okay, you know how to build it, but the big question is, is it really worth it? How has this portfolio performed in the real world for years and in different scenarios? Okay, let's look at this with data. Between 1995 and 2023, the Golden Butterfly has offered an average annual return of 7.8%. Okay, it doesn't seem spectacular, but here's where it gets interesting.
It has done so with very low volatility and a maximum drawdown of only 12.5%. To put it in context, Harry Brown's Permanent portfolio has underperformed, Ray Dalio's All Wither has also underperformed, and the typical 6040 portfolio, which combines stocks and bonds, has suffered deeper declines, especially when both asset classes fall simultaneously, as in 2022.
The Golden Butterfly, on the other hand, doesn't need to do that. With the economic cycle, there is always one bloc that works. If the economy grows, stocks rise. If there is a recession, long-term bonds rise. If inflation appears or responds to it. And if all else fails, cash cushions the blow. It does not aim to beat the market every year, but rather to maximize the relationship between profitability and stability.
And for an investor who wants to sleep soundly without sacrificing long-term growth, that 's pure gold. I've included the videos from Harry Brown and Google Heads here if you'd like to check them out, and don't forget to follow us if you haven't already . See you in the next video.
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