저자: VijayKedia · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 인도 시장, 특히 제조업·방산·자동차 섹터에 장기 강세 전망을 가지고 있으며, 단기 변동에 흔들리지 않는 행동 관리가 중요하다는 취지. [시장 경험] 2018년 Nifty 약 3900에서 현재 약 19000으로 상승. 인도 시장은 장기적으로 큰 수익을 준 시장이며, 일부 종목은 100~1000배 상승. [제조업·CAPEX 사이클] 인도 제조업에 새로운 사이클이 시작되는 중. 2003~2007년 CAPEX 사이클 이후 부실이 생겼으나 정리가 진행됨. RBI 총재 발언 인용: 민간 설비가동률 약 75% 이상(일부 78~80%)으로, 신규 설비투자 필요성이 커지는 단계. 이는 4~5년짜리 성장 산업의 시작으로 봄. [방산] 방산주는 2년간 3~4배 상승(HAL 등). 정부의 방산·철도·도로 지출이 지속되어 스토리가 수년간 이어질 것으로 보나, 일시적으로 비싸 보일 수 있다고 언급. 현재는 버블로 보지 않음. HAL 가격이 조정될 수 있으나 스토리는 끝나지 않았다고 평가. [자동차] 자동차 섹터에 새로운 상승 움직임이 시작됐다고 봄. 상용차 수요 회복, 천연가스(CNG) 관련 수혜 언급. 전기차는 인도에서 빠르게 확산되기 어렵고, 디젤은 4~5년, 휘발유는 약 10년 사용될 것으로 예상. 내연기관 부품 업체는 당분간 캐시카우 역할. [종목] 자동차 부품 관련 기업(Acceleration unit 관련 업체, NCRS 언급)에 대해 강세 의견. 구체적 목표가는 없음. [투자 행동] 장기 성공은 종목 선택보다 본인의 행동 통제에 달림. 자신의 성향(수면, 스트레스, 손실 대응)을 먼저 점검해야 함. 같은 뉴스라도 보유 기간과 손익 구간에 따라 행동이 달라짐. 초보 투자자는 바로 직접투자하기보다 뮤추얼펀드로 시장을 이해하라고 조언. [리스크] 단기 과열, 기술 변화(EV 등) 가능성, 변동성에 따른 심리적 흔들림 언급. 출연자 전망은 인도 제조업·방산·자동차에 대한 낙관적 장기 전망.
다듬은 글
You have seen our journey for the last two decades. You have seen the journey of the Indian economy for almost three decades since you have been an investor. Tell us some of your observations. Like we were talking about Nifty which was at Rs. 3900 when it was launched in 2018 and today it is sitting at Rs.
19000. So this is our long term organization and tell us something about your observation of the market and the economy, brother. Look at the observation, it is like this, first of all, many congratulations on your anniversary and may God bless you all to progress on this day and keep moving forward like this.
Secondly, as far as the market journey is concerned, see what it actually is, like Warren Buffett says, yes brother, I was born in America. First of all, my gun or you can say the blessing of God is that I was born in it. So, the same blessing is for our people like the younger ones, the same blessing is for us too.
Younger brothers, we were born in India. We faced that opposition, you should think about it, if at this time, if suppose a person was born in Japan in 1980 or 90, he would not have seen the growth of the stock market, then understand that this is your karma or whatever it is, and the right thing happens at the right time, it has its value, in how many days did you enter the market, 14 years have passed and you also entered at a good time, so by saying this, both the progress happened together, the country also progressed, the channel also progressed, the investor also progressed and as far as the question is concerned, the 6 times index that you are talking about, which is of 3800, 19, whatever it is, understand this, in the meantime, whatever has happened in five or six times, you will see, friend Ajay Bhai, there are many shares which have grown 100 times, 200 times, 300 times, 500 times, 1000 times, all the shares are big, friend, so the index sometimes gives a very big picture of the market or understand the market, of the overall market, so this market is such an ocean here.
But you get everything, friend, so even one of my codes is like marketing, like, ocean, no problem, people go to the perimeter just for fun, some go to bring fish, some go to catch minerals, and the deeper you go, the greater your risk is, but the profit is the same, the reward is the same, and it reflects the Indian economy, brother, Vijay Bhai, I have been studying that kind of business in stocks, and it is said that the latest report in our country's big, in this subject, the Indian market has the highest multi-bag period, if you hold it for a long time, what is your case, what is your case, friend, I invest, it is equal, because I have a small capital, I do not manage people's money, having a mutual fund, it is not that if I have to manage 50,000 crores, then I will not find a place in the mid-cap, okay, for this, I will have to do a big cap, what does it fit according to the material, brother Okay, what is it, it takes time for an elephant to turn around, if a person wants to move around, for example, the turner on, it takes time, but if a small animal wants to move around, it will move around, so I also like Matka because according to me, the potential for multiplication in it is more in Mittu.
Recently, I will not talk much about manufacturing, but after a long time, a lot of changes are taking place in Indian manufacturing, whether it is from policy site or story, some companies are doing good work, you have also expressed your views on it, what is your view on many manufacturing companies, what do I think about that kind of stock company, Ajay Bhai, from the next day to five years, I think that the theory of CPECS, which was in operation from 2003 to 2007, and what all the companies did CPECS, and after that I thought that everyone should know, the situation got downloaded, then it became and because of that, there was all the problem in the bank.
Now I feel that a good form of it is by learning from its mistakes, one thing happened, it happened happily, and by learning from mistakes a new chapter is starting in an apex mode, the government, whatever has happened so far in the last five, eight, ten years, all has been done by the government, now this private capacity is being started, I was listening to an interview of Shashikant Das ji, the RBI Governor, he says that the private capacity utilization is 75% and it is even more than that, so probably there is 7880% capacity utilization and generally he says it starts after 7075 because it takes 2 years to install it and to get the capacity, so it seems to me that this is big and those who are increasing the demand for everything, whether it is talking about power factor, steel, cement or anything else, then this infrastructure seems to me that this is a new sunrise industry and a new chapter of it is starting within it.
It has happened and the mistake that happened the first time, anyone got a loan, anyone took a loan by putting any amount on it, bought anything, later it became MP, now the entire balance sheet of that bank has been cleaned, so now it is difficult for that person to get the money, those who have a small business, those who are just hawking diamonds, so now the real investors will cry, not only the real investors will cry and there will be real money and real returns will come, so I am wondering whether this is a new chapter starting or not, this is a sunrise industry and this needs 4-5 years, I have not seen it for a long time, big companies talk about growth much ahead, how do you analyze defense, opportunities can be seen here, opportunities can be created here, good opportunities have already been created, friend, look at the defense shares, it has increased 3 times to 44 times, brother, Hindustan Aeronautics, how much in ₹950, SP and what do you say, it did something, friend, in ₹850, it became ₹35, brother, similarly all the other shares also doubled and tripled, it is a good one It has already run in the difference in the last 2 years, so whatever the government is spending, it is doing it through defense, through railways, what tax is being done in railways, it is being done in railways, it is being done through roads, so this story has already played out to a great extent, but it will continue for many more years, I feel like in between you will feel that the stocks have become expensive, so these stocks will also be expensive because they are getting relative to before and they are going to be maintained there, right now this does not seem like a bubble to me, Hindustan Aeronautics of 3700, it may become 3000, it may become 32, I don't know whether it has happened or not, but its story is not going to end, the momentum in these, I feel that this has started, it should continue for years, I like the auto sector, friend, I feel that a new move has started again in the automobile sector, like the kind of interviews you are doing with Maruti, their The Chairman is telling us that things are happening in the same way and we keep getting figures and data that this vehicle has so many bookings, that vehicle has so many bookings and further, right now something is going on in the commercial vehicle sector, so the accelerators that will be supplied to the natural gas will also benefit indirectly or directly and as far as electric is concerned, I feel that this engine will not end immediately, diesel may get exhausted within four-five years, something here and there may get exhausted in two-three years, in four years, whatever it may be, petrol is going to be used for now and is going to last for 10 years, maybe experts will tell you more, I am just repeating to you after listening to the experts and especially the alternative fuels like CNG etc., their new use is also going to start, so it is going to take a lot of time for electric to flourish in India, till then these other units that are being supplied to this engine are going to end, this is their Kamadhenu, they will earn from it and They will spend a lot on AV because they are not going to get volume or margin in AV right now.
Technology is also changing and technology will change every year. So, they need a strong company with strong R&D and strong collaboration. The technical soundness of AV will make the Acceleration unit survive in the long term. But to survive in the long term, it is necessary to have short-term profit.
That short- term profit will come from whatever is happening in petrol and diesel. Like I will make my own cheese from that profit or will sustain in this. Till then, there are many such companies like NCRS brother, I find it very bullish. Vijay brother, I would like to know from you that to be a successful investor, how should one control one's behavior in the long term?
You often talk about this big thing. Brother, we have no control over the market. You can buy a good company, but can we change our behavior in such a way that we have to keep up with the ups and downs? How much role does behavior play in becoming a very successful investor in the long term? I think behavior plays a role here brother, what role does it play here?
Tell me, yes, this is more important for you and the client, so before filling the KYC form, first look at yourself, brother, what have you come here to do? Are you not getting disturbed in your sleep at night? Are you getting angry? Where are you feeling angry? This assessment is very important here.
Before judging the shares, it is very important to judge your character, your characteristics. This game is all about behavior. I feel that sometimes you and I may take a share on the same news at the same time, but if we look at the journey of 4 years or 6 months or 5 years, whatever our journey is, if those journeys are different, you will behave differently, I will behave differently.
Maybe I held it for 4 years, maybe my share of 50 became 250. The 250 there became 50 and I took it out, you added it and kept it and later it will become ₹1000 but for example, this is the whole behavior, so I feel that you have a completely balanced mind here, like my code is also that investing is like yoga weather, here that alignment is very important, your mind's wish is like a snake's own perspective, listen, everyone should do what their mother does and when your lion grows, then do not get too excited that I will break you, I will leave you and I have conquered the world, all this is nothing here brother, and when it falls, then do not do this, I do not have intelligence, I am rubbish, I got into depression, my lion, you will have to bear all these things and brother, all these things have come with time, they have come with experience, by saying this, new investors are advised that brother, do not invest immediately after coming, do not do your direct investment, understand the market a little through mutual funds, so this is a journey brother, but in my opinion, it is a huge contribution, thank you very much Vijay Bhai, share your experience with us. Thank you very much for sharing this and always keep guiding us like this.
Comments 0