저자: DanIves · 외국인
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트럼프 행정부(머스크 영향력)로 엔비디아·애플·테슬라 등 빅테크 관세 면제·규제 완화 기대, 테슬라 FSD 자율주행 가속 가능성과 목표가 상향(300달러 이상). 주식시장은 연말 조정 가능성 대비 하락 시 매수 권고, 홈빌더 계절성(10~4월) 강조. 아마존 실적 호조, 애플은 소폭 하락이나 매력 유지 주장.
다듬은 글
I think that's Comfort it's one reason why Nvidia semiconductors and apple are all up even though some people are afraid of moves to hurt them even though it sounds like something out of The Twilight Zone it's actually a source of comfort that he could make sure that this doesn't have any unintended effects on the big tech industry Microsoft or the hyperscalers I think that's what's going on here especially since musk is much more powerful in the White House lastly when you think about state governments many of them are democratic and may be angry about what happened at the federal level doesn't that make them more against FSD unfortunately this is going to be one of many fights that will happen over the next few years the main one is on the government level that looks like it will be important the carveout part of tariffs is one reason why Nvidia semiconductors and apple are all up today even though some people are worried about what will happen with tariffs some people think that with musk in charge tariffs might not be as bad as they seem when it comes to a and I think that's what's important right now not just for a but for the whole Tech space at the beginning you said that you think having Tesla in the White House could help him a lot how what kinds of rules are we keeping an eye on I believe there are three things one is that the EV tax credits are taken away I think this is bad for the EV industry especially with what's going on in China but if Trump really tries to speak speed up autonomous SD then everything we talked about today with robots will happen 1 to two years earlier I think that's what most of the people I talk to are most interested in can this speed up autonomy I think the answer is probably yes which is why the market cap is starting to reach a trillion or a trillion and a half you're only $19 away from your goal but it's a big part of the value right now keep us up to date it's great to see you Dan I agree which is good for mergers and Acquisitions big Tech and less government oversight right but when it comes to Tesla it's all about musk now having a say whereas Biden didn't give him one either he can say something important now let's talk quickly about generative ey which is a bigger topic of tech that we talk about a lot when we talk about Nvidia what do you think his effect will be on moving things along in the government and what do you think the policy might be he'll be something like an i and voy from a tech point of view that's pretty much the part he could play Tesla stock is one of the best movers this morning it has gone through the roof since last night's election let's bring in Dan eyeses a Weber Securities analyst with a buy rating on Tesla and a new Target of at least $300 he will join us to talk about what this means for Tesla for big Tech and for Elon Musk hi Dan does that make that number different that being said I believe this was a smart move by musk that could pay off huge usually for Tesla in the years to come for beginners I think $40 to $50 per share is a good price this isn't just because of what could happen with the tax credit but also because it levels the playing field if you take out the Detroit automakers they will really have an edge in terms of their costs and scope the important thing about Trump is that he could speed up autonomy and FSD in the end as we talked about on the show this is what we think will open the trillion doll market for I alone important that's right John the stock market has shown what kind of person it is for the past 6 weeks the SNP is very strong this year it's been up for nine of the last 10 months you're right seasonality tricked us I thought that between now and election day there was a greater chance of some kind of correction we didn't mean for you to sell stocks people who sell out of fear are always making a mistake because we said but if it does pull back you want to buy that dip right after that I think we'll be in a tough spot until after the election but that doesn't mean investors should be bearish right now I believe we have a very good basic background that being said if David is Right a Fed funds rate of 3.5% is great for the economy for both earnings growth and P/E multiples this should be good news it will really pull homes cars and durable goods out of a recession all of this seems like a pretty good background to me that doesn't mean there couldn't be trouble so Jay I guess you know I think the idea that there might be caution is kind of like a bad word it is not right because this is a stock market people should be ready to buy when prices drop as Tom said the busiest time for making money is coming up in two weeks besides that's right yes we chose to talk about the trade today because since 1999 there has been a six-month window when homebuilders and a golden six-month period fundstrat has been writing about this for almost 10 years and the trade has worked 12 out of the last 15 years between October 20 and April 29 home builders did better than the SNP by an average of almost 1,900 basis points that means that all of the gains that builders make usually happen in those 6 months when the FED Cuts rates at a time when demand is high and home builders have done a great job of managing their capital things look better overall I don't know why timing works that way but it does we think this is a good deal for this year we do talk about the tape when we talk about the next move in the market and whether or not we can trust this comeback of course we all want to know that so let's ask Tom Lee he is now live with us it's great to see you it's great to see you Scott when I look at your notes today they make me think that the worst is over why do you think that what were really interested in is the fact that the VX hit 60 on Monday which is the third highest level ever let's begin with Amazon what did you see make you feel it looked pretty interesting to me even though Cloud didn't meet expectations the price is still going up that's right yes it's true that Amazon had a few problems after yesterday you might have thought that something would get punished but not Amazon today it was a big surprise in the quarter that the company made a lot of of money which I think had a lot to do with that the bottom line made a lot of money that makes buyers feel a lot better I think not bad for sales they were pretty close so it's not a surprise that stock is up also it hasn't been one of the best players in the Magnificent 7 or in technology so they still have some room to grow investors were really pleased by the fact that they raised Capital expenditures by 81% while margins grew at the same time what do you think about that it's hard to do that at the same time yes it is and the spending number was very important this is the end of The Big kex Spenders and the cloud Spenders you can see that they are all still focused on kex and spending a lot of money because of what jasse said about the possibilities of AI and creative Ai and because they are still focusing on that the story will keep going that should be a good red for NVIDIA they are The Last of The Magnificent Seven to report let's quickly talk about Apple now right now those Shares are down a little more than 1% that seems to be the main idea since there were many other good things in this study as well Jean monster from Deepwater was one of the people who did the math based on his numbers the forecast for this quarter was for Revenue to grow by 4 to 6% the street wanted almost 7% does it make sense to you that the stock is down 1% since then when there have been so many other good things
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