저자: 미상 · 외국인
요약 보기
TSM 실적 발표 분석: 분기 매출·순이익은 애널리스트 예상 상회했으나 전년 대비 각각 약 11%, 25% 감소. 재고 감소 지속 전망, 외국인·기관 순매수 우위. 배당 안전성 양호, 잉여현금흐름 대비 배당성향 높은 편(레드플래그 언급). 밸류에이션 모델 4종 평균 내재가치 약 112달러, 15% 안전마진 기준 매수가 96달러 제시.
다듬은 글
Taiwan semiconductors have released their earnings and they are the top producer of the world's most advanced processes they are a company you should be considering to add to your portfolio and one you should have in your watch list at the bare minimum in today's episode we're going to understand is this a buy now or at what price should we be adding this incredible company to our portfolio we're going to look at the Historical performance of the company we're going to jump into their income statements their revenue growth Top Line as well as their bottom line net income growth year onye we're going to take a look at the health of their balance sheet their total cash versus their total debt we're going to compare them to some of their well-known competitors such as broadcom Advanced Micro Devices for a total return year-to date and the Last 5 Years performance and we're going to see what are institutions doing are they buying or selling the stock and this is going to lead us very nicely into that all important dividend safety as well as understanding some very important fin Financial metrics you need to understand before investing into TSM and as always we will run it through our stock valuation model getting to our intrinsic value and our acceptable Buy price given that investor margin of safety now before we look at the Historical performance of the company we're going to jump straight into the earnings and we can see straight away the world's largest chip maker sees their biggest drop in profit after nearly 5 years now yes we can see they have posted a third quarter profit and do bear in mind that this currency is the Taiwanese dollar on Thursday their largest profit decline for the first quarter of 2019 reason for this weak demand from consumer electronics does continually to persist however do note they did beat both on the top line and bottom line so let's take a look at essentially how they really did perform in terms of versus analyst estimates well 546 billion is what they did report on the top line and 54 was what analysts had estimated so they beat on the top line bottom line net income likewise 21 billion versus 191 billion so again beating on both the top line and bottom line but one thing to note is this did the Top Line did slip around 11% from a year ago likewise so did that bottom line net income from 25% from a year ago so bear in mind that whilst they have essentially been beating the Wall Street analyst estimates this is not a beat if you are looking at a year-on-year comparison and one thing just to bear in mind the CEO s say in that evening call on Thursday that he does expect their inventories to continue to decline reasons for this as we can see persistent weaker overall macroeconomic conditions and a slow demand recovery in China hence why they are cautious with their inventory control so something just to bear in mind as well as the risk with Taiwan semiconductors is that geopolitical issues that do arise but again it is one of those things where they are risk with all companies that you do invest in so how have they performed well straight away we can see based on their earnings from yesterday they are up around 3% in the pre-market year to date very strong 21% up above the S&P 500 which is up around 16% it is trading towards the mid-range of the 52 we range highs and lows and it does offer a yield of 2% so are we looking at a very cheap price for Taiwan semiconductor and can we expect to see this price double or triple over the next few years as well as that yield on cost eventually ending up to double digits well investors who have been holding the company essentially over the very long time we can see some phenomenal growth the company has had but in terms of the last 10 years 385 which is very strong especially considering those don't include dividends reinvested so we want to understand can we expect to see this from the next 10 years or even more so let's jump in to see how well the business is is actually performing and on the top line what we like to see 3 to 7% growth year onye December 2018 34 billion reported on the top line December 22 74 billion so more than double that Top Line over the last 5 years and in a more gr new level we can see that year- on-year increase to the Top Line so very positive but how does that compare to the bottom line net income do we see the same movement well around 11.9 billion reported net income in 2018 latest annual report December 22 33 billion so three times as much reported on the bottom line but bear in mind on a more granny level we do see a slightly flat bottom line from 18 to 19 before picking up very nicely so so far very strong set of income statement let's take a quick look at the health check of the balance sheet total cash and short-term Investments versus total debt well 2018 they held around 23 billion on the balance sheet latest quarterly report from yesterday 48 billion so they are holding more than double the amount of cash cash over the Last 5 Years a very large amount which is always good to see and in comparison to the total debt well how does that compare around 5.9 billion is what they had in 2018 they are holding a significant amount more debt around 31 billion in their latest quartly report but when we compare that to their cash they have a lot more cash and short-term Investments than they do have debt so very positive to see in my personal opinion now in terms of comparing them to some of their competitors in the semiconductor industry again you would heard of broadcom Advanced Micro Devices Intel Texas Instruments and qualcom which we did review recently on the channel in terms of Total return over the period so includes those dividends reinvested whilst they have performed very well year-to dat at 23% we can see the semiconductor industry as a whole having a very strong year so therefore we see them towards the middle of their competitors now looking in terms of the five years including their competitors how do they perform on a total return basis well what we can see is in fact 100 163% return again very very strong for the last 5 years but do know even their competitors have had some phenomenal returns especially broadcom at 362 and AMD at 284 so very strong and again whil historical performance and prices isn't an indicative of the future it is good to include within your research now in terms of Institutions what are they doing well a fairly low score there or low percentage institutions only holding around 16 and a half half% of Taiwan semiconductors and in terms of are they buying or selling well last 12 months around 15 billion worth of shares have been sold but more significantly more in fact 23 billion have been bought so institutions are buying more than they are selling and in terms of the last few quarters of the year Well q1 14 billion worth of shares were bought with 3.6 billion sold Q2 3.5 billion versus 2.5 billion sold and Q3 just a few hundred million bought and sold some institutions do seem to like this stock but again we shouldn't rely any stock Investments on what institutions are doing and do our own due diligence and Analysis so jumping straight into the dividend safety we had a score of 62 making it safe and a market cap of 432 billion making it a mega cap company now for those that believe a recession is looming how has it performed in the last recession so 0709 they in fact cut their dividend and in terms of their sales negative 26% which was below the average growth of companies in the S&P 500 which interestingly enough was also negative but however in terms of return they did beat the S&P 55% returning -25 so something to digest for viewers who do believe that a recession is looming now they haven't been paying increasing dividends for in fact zero years we can see in fact they have kept it quite constant do bear in mind these are in Taiwan dollars but over the Last 5 Years A 7% compounded annual growth and over the last 10 years 14% well when you compare that or include the fact that the stock has risen up so much personally that is something I would be very happy with double digit growth but as we can see it hasn't been any growth for quite some time and one thing I do say and do bear this in mind in your investment you want to be aiming for a minimum of 4% increases in your dividends your well essentially dividend salary and other income producing assets reason for this the US inflation rate was 4% over the last 40 years anything less you are taking a pay cut and losing your purchasing power now dividend yield Theory Sayes a company is undervalued when the current yield sits above the 5year average so we could argue based on this 2.1 versus 2.12 we can see essentially reasonable valuation but bear in mind we never look at any of these molds in isolation and we'll draw our conclusions towards the end of the episode we can see here however the forward PE sitting below the 5year average so you could argue a sign of undervaluation 17.6 versus 19.7 and we can see here the sector PE coming a little higher at 20.5 versus that of TSM at 17.6 now in terms of the 52e price range as mentioned it is in the middle but bear in mind 52e high would not signal overvaluation likewise 52- we low would not signal undervaluation now earnings versus free cash flow this is a good reason to show viewers while we tend to ignore the earnings it is susceptible to manipulation by management through accounting and we focus our attention on free cash flow one of the reasons for this if we take a look at 2019 or even 2021 we can see in 2019 the free cash flow paay was 69% whereas essentially in 2019 here 71 so what this signals in 2019 that essentially Taiwan was paying out 169% of essentially their free cash flow generator so they were paying out more in dividends than they were generating in free cash flow it is a red flag indicator in my personal opinion and what we can see is whilst I like to see it below 60% year onye because in my opinion it means management able to offer those double digit dividend increases we can see their payout is very very high 108 again in 2021 55 so it did drop in 2022 with 2023 expected 68 so for me this is a slight red flag indicator do bear in mind when this does go above 100% or even near it does mean they are starting to pay out more in generated free cash flows than they are in essentially receiving so bear that in mind again earnings per share the available data is there for investors but we tend to focus our attention to the free cash flow 220 in 2013 20.1 and 2022 with 2023 expected 17.9 yes it is going in the right direction it is increasing but bear in mind the inconsistencies it does tend to fall every other year so do bear that in mind in your analysis but overall it is moving in the right direction with nearly a 10 times growth on that free cash flow per share over the last 10 years sales growth 3 to 7% year on-ear and it looks very very strong double digit growth in nearly every single year over the last 10 years and numerically speaking around 600 million in 2013 and 2.26 billion in 2022 again these are in Taiwanese dollars so bear that in mind but we can see the astronomical growth it has had over the last 10 years and if it continues it could be a very strong company to invest in now shares outstanding we love it when companies do share BuyBacks returning excess cash to our pockets but we can see they've remained relatively or essentially very flat over the last 10 years so share BuyBacks isn't what they do now return on invested Capital roic One of my seven golden dividend metrics if you want to see the other six do check the pinned YouTube video 10% plus is what I love to see it means management are effectively allocating their Capital consistently above 20% 20 to 30% year on year very very strong gives me a lot of faith in management an operating margin free cash flow margin phenomenal well above our minimums of 165% and again the higher that operating margin the higher that bottom line net income will be which will translate into more dividends and larger dividend growths very positive again free cash flow a very strong free cash flow machine now net debt to earnings before interest tax depreciation amortization signaling the number of years it would take the company to pay off all of their debt net of cash on hand 1.5 is the maximum we like to see as I mentioned it wouldn't even take them one day to pay off all of their debt net of cash on hand so very very positive to see as always if you do enjoy the content value is being provided do hit that like button do subscribe and hit the Bell to be continually notified of these episodes it really helps the channel grow and if you want to grab a copy of the valuation model we're about to run through to get your own intrinsic value or acceptable Buy price given your margin of safety do click on the pinned comment below now we starting off with gr's valuation so we have the stock ticker at TSM with the earnings per share at 564 growth rate for analy estimates and that current yield on AAA corporate bond giving an intrinsic value of $71 now we can see that is within the 52 we range but lower in the current market price signaling signs of overvaluation currently bear in mind though we don't look at any of these mods in isolation and will draw conclusions towards the end of the episode so now we have the multiples valuation model companies in similar sector and size Texas Instruments qualcom broadcom stock price earnings per share PE multiple we get the average multiply that by the earnings per share of TSM to get a stock price of $113 as we can see slightly higher than the 52e high even above the pre-market price of $92 showing signs of undervaluation in the current market we then move on to the third model the dividend discount model now typically we put the yearly dividends but what we have here is given it's paid out in Taiwanese dollars we have the latest dollar amount PA with the average growth rate as we saw earlier on so forward looking I have gone slightly lower a bit more conservative than the average over the last 5 years but as always if you do want to go for a higher or lower percentage based on your own investment thesis do grab a copy of the model below to play around with your figures so this gives a DDM price of $139 strong upside to the current price and above the 52e high showing signs of severe undervaluation in the current market we then move on to the fourth and final model the DCF discounted cash flow model where we have our free cash flows year on year average growth at 46% with the growth rate forward looking at 12% discount rate 8% we get the present value of future free cash flows and terminal value add together with the cash subtract total debt and arrive of the equity value divide that by the shares outstanding gives us a DCF price of $127 again strong upside to the current market price above the 52e high and more signs of undervaluation in the current market as always the intrinsic value is the average of the four models and if you are enjoying the content value is being provided smash the like button it let me know you enjoy this content and want more or similar content produced and as always do hit the bell and subscribe button if you want to be continually notified of these videos as they drop so the intrinsic value coming to $112 now typically a margin of safety that I would assume would be 10% if I believed it had a wide mode strong financial metrics good forward-looking data now I believe TSM You could argue at 10% margin of safety but do bear in mind the geopolitical risks with Taiwan and the US and China so again you may want to have a larger margin of safety 15% you would be looking at acceptable buy of $96 therefore based on the estimates and judgments today if you were to lock in the price up to $95 you would be getting a 15% margin of safety at 20% you would be looking around $90 again it really depends for me this margin of safety due to the DU political risks really depends on your own investment thesis forward looking with Taiwan and Taiwan semiconductors 20% around $90 those looking at 25% you could be looking around $84 now as we take a look $84 is still within the 52 we price range as always though do let me know your thoughts in the comments below are you looking to add TSM sell or even just purely speculating on the sidelines we can see though Wall Street do see some significant upside from the current trading price to $122.50 well above our intrinsic value as well so they see some strong upside as always don't forget if you want to grab a copy of the model you can by clicking on the pin comment below run your own companies through to get your own acceptable Buy price and intrinsic value as always do come and join us in the Discord where we're talking about all buyers and sales in the market as well as all things stock market and finance related by clicking on that patreon link below don't forget to like subscribe if you've enjoyed today's episode catch you on the next episode have a lovely day drop your comments in and catch you later bye-bye
Comments 0