저자: Kevin · 외국인
요약 보기
8월 고용보고서가 부진(비농업 고용 약 2.2만, 과거치 하향 수정 반영 시 사실상 제로 성장). 실업률 4.2→4.3%, 경기침체 우려 제기. 시장은 단기적으로 경기침체를 무시하고 금리인하 기대로 상승 중이며, 장기적으로 실업률 급등·디플레이션 가능성 경고. 금리 하락 수혜 자산(부동산 관련주)과 금 상승을 언급, 테슬라 보상안·Optimus 우려도 언급. 본문 다수가 유료 멤버십 홍보.
다듬은 글
Holy smokes. We have gotten a lot of news just this morning. We got to talk jobs. We got to talk Tesla and Elon Musk. We got to talk Broadcom with Open AI. What? Making their own chips. Man, that's a slap in the face to Nvidia and AMD. Nvidia down 1.8%. AMD down 2.2% right now. Folks, we really need to talk though about this labor report.
So, yesterday Donald Trump said, "Ah, ignore the labor report tomorrow." And as soon as he said that, I started getting a little sus. I'm like, "Wait, wait, wait a sec. Wait a sec. What do you mean ignore the labor report tomorrow?" Oh, you know, report's not going to matter until next year anyway. H Did Donald Trump get a little heads up that today's labor numbers were going to come in below 79 out of 80 estimates?
That's right. 79 out of 80 Wall Street estimates got it wrong. That's because even though I even lowered my standards for this report, okay, for the ADP report, I just wanted to see 60. Even though markets were expecting 70, we got 54. Yesterday, I said, "All right, look, markets are expecting 75 for this labor report.
Let's just be ultra conservative and say, you know what, give us anything better than 40." We couldn't even do that. We got 22,000 jobs created which if we consider the revisions that we've had of negative basically 13,000 I'm sorry uh negative 21,000 bringing us to -3,000 for June uh with yes an upward revision in July of about 6,000.
Well, we've basically wiped out any gains this month with revisions in prior months net to the downside. So, it basically means annualized our labor market is growing at zero. On a 3-month basis, we're growing at 38,000 jobs per month, which is great. And a six, you know, it's certainly better than than zero.
Uh, and it's higher than the 3-month rate that we had in the last 3 months, which is good. We've had some pretty good lows in there. uh but the six-month average unemployment rate is running at 67,000. And so clearly we could see this deterioration over the last few months. And this is why people are very worried that we might be walking into a labor market recession.
Now the stock market in the short term doesn't price in recession. The stock market in the short term doesn't work that way. The stock market in the short term tends to look for what I like to call bullish catalyst. Bullish catalyst. This is exactly the game plan that I set up yesterday for all of y'all publicly.
Mind you, yesterday evening I made a video and I said, "Look, people love discounting data because things don't get real until things get real." This is exactly the same thing that we said in the alpha report yesterday morning, which you could get if you're part of the Meet Kevin membership. Price goes up tonight at midnight.
You pay once, you get lifetime access. But it's exactly what we said yesterday morning before the market was open. Before the market was even open, I suggested that this ADP data will probably be discounted by markets. I literally wrote markets will probably discount ADP and challenger data in favor of decent claim numbers.
This suggests that Q's bounce today. I'd look for a bounce at 569 and play the upside. I don't see us crashing out. This was in the alpha report yesterday. And what happened yesterday? Well, we literally bounced within 3 cents of where I suggested we might at 569 and 3 cents and we're up from there all the way through to the 577 to 578 line now where we sit in pre-market.
Actually, we sit even above that now at 579. So, why is the market reacting so positively? Well, it could be because the 3-month average employment rate did tick up a little bit. It could be because the household numbers are actually decent. They came in at positive288,000. Remember the difference between the payrolls and the household survey.
Payrolls survey is, hey boss, how many workers do you have working for you this uh you know today? Oh, I got 10 workers for me. Okay, then you call the 10 workers. Hey uh you know how many uh how many jobs you working right now? Oh, you know I got I got two jobs. Okay. Well, there's this potential that usually when we look at these reports, you double count in the payrolls data and not in the household data.
That usually leaves people calling the payrolls data less accurate, the household data potentially more. Well, the household data here is good. So again, if you're bullish catalyst looking for a bullish catalyst, the fact that you had a good household survey at positive 288,000, the three-month trend taking up slightly, and the fact that we're basically now fully pricing in 25 basis points of cuts from the Fed explains why just like we forecast yesterday, the markets are actually decently optimistic at the moment.
They're not really caring about the fact that we could already be in a labor market recession. Uh markets don't think about that until it's too late. Markets panic when earnings start plummeting, but earnings don't really start plummeting until your neighbors lose their job and they can't find a new one.
And that's actually where we could go to some forward-looking concerning data. And that has to do with has fallen substantially as of late. It currently sits at 62.3 and that's a smidge up from 62.2. It's been on basically a straight decline. Now, the labor force participation rate is critical because it suggests that if for whatever reason more people come back into the labor market, like retired people, for example, say, you know what, I I'm out of money like or I don't want to go through my money or whatever, I need to go work.
The labor force participation rate will skyrocket. The problem with the skyrocketing participation rate is it doesn't take a lot of a skyrocket in the participation rate to see the unemployment rate skyrocket. And it is definitionally the unemployment rate that the National Bureau of Economic Research will use to determine whether or not we are in a recession.
And once we are declared to be in a recession, that is exactly how people get nervous about corporate earnings. corporate earnings fall, corporations lay off even more, and then you are in a self-fulfilling AI fueled recession. Now, GPT doesn't think that there's going to be any kind of AI recession because after all, even though they say we're in a bubble, they say that they're spending the money in the best way possible.
And even though we've heard this before, apparently OpenAI is now partnering with Broadcom to produce AI chips at the same time as Elon Musk gets a master plan for four for you know compensation plan which could eventually pay him out over trillions of dollars should he meet all eight of his milestones which include generating over $7.5 trillion of shareholder value to be able to unlock roughly 25% total control of Tesla to a total of 25% if Elon Musk meets all milestones.
This is all relatively well bullish catalyst. Bullish. This is bullish Tesla so far. And if you've been paying attention to Tesla, you know a critical line for Tesla is that 34758 line. In fact, in pre-market, we literally perfectly bounced off of it and within 15 cents may as well be perfect. Uh at the same time you have enthusiasm around uh open AI and software.
You have enthusiasm around Tesla. You have enthusiasm around rate cuts. You also have enthusiasm about bond yields falling. Now this is actually a really big deal for real estate which we know Warren Buffett is starting to position for real estate. We know that house hack is positioning a lot for real estate and we know we have an expiring coupon code today which there going to be a whole lot more lectures on not just real estate but stock investing, property management and of course Trumpomics tax benefits for 2025 to still use.
But what's most important beyond this coupon code expiring today is that the 10-year Treasury yield is absolutely tanking. And this is a sign that potentially we're at the start of TLT going to the moon. Now, this is not personalized financial advice to go invest into TLT. Who knows, anything can change, but markets seem convinced the Federal Reserve is now going to take this labor market data and it's going to switch to a point of view that we don't need to be worried about stagflation or inflation.
We actually need to be worried about deflation. Just a few days ago, I said that massive deflation is coming not only on YouTube, but also on X. You can see it. Follow me there. Meet Kevin or Meeke on Instagram. And I talk about how we are about to go into a deflationary cycle where prices actually plummet for things which then of course you might think well that's wonderful I want things to be cheaper but things being cheaper is only good so long as you have a job or income and the concern is that we are going to go through an AI inspired unemployment recession.
Markets are not going to price that in until it happens. Markets are solely going to price in enthusiasm around rate cuts and yields going down. In fact, smaller cap plays could be most to benefit from yields coming down, but also most at risk of going bankrupt should um well, let's just say the poopy dupies hit the fan.
So, be careful. Now, when it comes to these payroll numbers and Fed expectations, markets right now are pricing in essentially a full 25 basis point cut in September, but it's likely we're now we are now pricing in an 8.8% chance of a 50 basis point cut September 17th. This number just updated right before my eyes.
We've got basically three full cuts priced in for the year and an 8.8% 8% chance the Federal Reserve is going to panic and cut rates by 50 basis points to support that weaker labor market. Now, Donald Trump and his team, they're running cover trying to discredit had technical difficulties this morning, which I wouldn't put it past the Trump administration to somehow orchestrate.
Uh, and even though the data came out on time, Howard Lutnik is running circles around tariff announcements and even their boy Elon Musk is trying to gain favor with Donald Trump by getting people to talk about Elon Musk's pay package rather than 's just the nature of the stock market is the stock market is going to care about the very short term.
And in the short term, all this means is rates and yields are coming down and it's an opportunity potentially to borrow cheaper for companies or individuals and basically just yolo it up to the moon. Now, is that the most sound thing to do? Well, everybody's got to make up their own mind. Let's put it this way.
If the Federal Reserve does not act quickly, we will probably fall behind the curve of employment. And Jerome Pal's reputation will be true. Jerome Powell will end up being Mr. too late and he'll end up with a recession on his hands or well the next Fed chair will end up with a recession on their hands and we're not going to be able to spend enough money to get our way out of it.
That's my big concern is that people are going to lose their jobs and companies are just going to use AI to refill those positions and if people leave so be it. It's more earnings for those companies, which does make the stock market a unique hedge to some of this drama. But anyway, uh that's some of my take on what's going on with the jobs report and then of course OpenAI and Tesla.
I personally will give you a quick little spoiler on where my head is on Optimus. I really wish we were manufacturing uh 20 million cars a year. I know that is one of the milestones to get to that level, 20 million cars manufactured total, which is a little different than 20 million per year. But I think that Teslas are so great.
I think they're such a great vehicle. I love my Cybert truck. I just moved, you know, over a 100 gallons of paint with the Cybert truck. I'm very, very excited about the vehicles that Tesla produces. Uh, but I am concerned that a move to Optimus is really going to be a move to a product that can't really carry weight.
When you see robotics, you're almost always going to see them carry or operate with very lightweight objects because we just don't have the motor technology yet to keep doing heavy tasks on repeat for robots without breaking down. So, I'm a little nervous about the master plan, but then again, I get it.
Even though this master plan might not be exactly what I, you know, would agree with, I have to say Elon Musk has balls to put his compensation onto this master plan. So, good for him. And I think that's why Tesla is up because it's really a sign off on the optimism that Elon Musk has for Tesla. And who knows, maybe in just a matter of time, my optimism will switch from cars to robo taxis to Optimus, and we'll be right back to bullying for Tesla.
Bullish catalyst. bullish catalyst for now. Hopefully, this is enough of a catalyst to actually break out of this 347 trap that Tesla has been open. Notice another stock that's also rallying heavy. We just yesterday hit all-time highs on Open Door. Well, I should say recent highs, like last 12-month highs on Open Door, and we're up another 7% in pre-market.
You might wonder why a real estate play is moving up. And folks, it has everything to do with yield. In fact, we expect other real estate plays to be up as well, such as Pool, Dr. Horton, Lenar, Lowe's, Home Depot. All of them are green, folks. Why? Because mortgage rates are coming down, especially in the face of this weak jobs data.
Look at Rocket Mortgage. And this is again why you want to be part of the alpha report. Spoiler alert, one of our 10 stocks to buy for the next 10 years is Rocket Mortgage. We've done fundamental analysis on this company in detail since it was $10. That's now over a double since then. And we've been very active in it on dips over the last few weeks around $16 and $17.
Even in our alpha report saying, "Hey, it's 17 bucks. It's a good opportunity to load up on on Rocket." Boom. Here it is. Up to 20 bucks. We've got nine other stocks to buy on the list. 10 stocks to buy over the next 10 years list. I really encourage you use that coupon code bullish and get in. Not only you're part of that daily technical analysis, but you're part of that longerterm fundamental analysis as well.
The real estate trend is happening. And I want you to hear it here first. Warren Buffett's in. You've got House Hack is in. You've got the lenders that are positioning. The only thing that is going to happen in the near term when it comes to any kind of recessionary scare is yields are going to fall.
Now, what we may see is a spike in this 102 curve, especially since we have QCEW revisions coming up on the 9th, which is just in 4 days. In 4 days, we have another massive catalyst. And if we get a shock revision on jobs, something over a million negative in jobs, which is entirely possible, we could end up seeing the tend to spread rocket even more.
And it does set us up for a recessionary environment. Obviously, everybody knocks on wood and hopes that we can avoid that sort of crisis because it's going to suck for people. That's just something to keep in mind. Now, something else to pay close attention to is what's going on with gold prices in reaction to this labor market report.
Despite this labor market report coming in weak, gold prices actually moved up. Now, could that actually be logical? And the answer is yes. Typically, gold prices move up in anticipation of a crisis. However, gold prices tend to fall once you're in the crisis. So in other words, gold is a really good tool when you're driving towards a recession, but it's kind of a bad tool when you're in a recession.
So are other risk assets. Everything tends to do poorly with the exception of things that you can leverage very cheaply and safely frequently like real estate. This is just an example where those who have jobs and those who have money will end up being able to make more money. Now, that's unfortunate for those who lose their jobs, but remember, even in a recession where the unemployment rate goes to 15%.
You have to remember, even though that's really high, it still means 85% of people have their jobs. Very, very important. Now, bottom line out of all of this, there are two things that can really happen to the labor market right now, and both of them are just bad. Number one, if the participation rate rises, the labor force participation rate rises, our unemployment rate will skyrocket immediately with it.
Today, the participation rate rose.1%. And our unemployment rate went up from 4.2 to 4.3. This could just be the beginning because if more people are coming off of the sidelines to look for work and join the labor market again, people who retired who say, "I'm out. I need to go back to work." or people who were discouraged workers who decide who at some point decided you know what I'm just not even going to look for work anymore are now looking for work again then the labor force participation rate will skyrocket and we will very rapidly have a terrible unemployment rate but it's not just that it's not just people coming off the sidelines going back to work that could create a crisis for our unemployment rate it is also layoffs because our beaver Well, it's technically called the beverage curve, but it's written like Beaver Ridge curve.
Technically, the beverage curve is in a very abnormal state. We are in an environment of low vacancies and low unemployment. That's very abnormal. We're like a straight line on the chart when usually we have this sort of logarithmic curve down. And what that means is when we go back to a historically normal beverage curve, we're probably going to be at an unemployment rate of 10 to 15%.
That's not to be bearish. It's just simply to tell you what the facts of history are. Now, how do you protect yourself in sort of this kind of environment? Well, there are a few different ways. Number one, for now, enjoy the rally because the stock market is almost always going to be blind to the longer term issues.
That doesn't mean rush to the exits and sell everything now. It means set yourself a nice wide trailing stop. Maybe you set yourself a 10% trailing stop on some of your favorite stocks or maybe even 7% on a big index. Whatever. Nothing here is personalized financial advice simply to say that if you want to make sure you're protected, set yourself up a blanket so you can soft land.
Make sure that your trailing stops pay off your margin, pay off any short-term debt that you have, and give you enough cash to buy the dip and be prepared to hold out without a job for a good period of time should you lose your job. Trailing stops are a fantastic tool for that. And you set them to be good to cancelled.
you only have to renew them that way every 60 to 90 days depending on your broker and this way you can keep earning gains while limiting those losses. Really something to pay attention to. Now again why is the market so euphoric? Well first probably because coupon code bullish catalyst expires later today and again f uh although report every morning the market is open fundamental analysis on the 10 stocks to buy over the next 10 years.
all of that. Uh, real estate insights, real estate analysis, you name it. Pay once, you get lifetime access. But markets, again, don't understand how to price anything other than falling earnings. Falling earnings mean it's too late. You're not ever going to see early recessionary pricing in the stock market.
You will only ever see it in the bond market. Look at 10-year yields down 10.2 2 basis points today while the curve is still sitting at 60. That means the 2-year Treasury is also falling in lock step. It is. It's down over 11 basis points. And as they move in lock step, you're not pricing in shock yet.
You're pricing in Fed action. The odds that we are going to get a 50 basis point cut just during the recording of this segment right here have just now risen to 15.6%. Which means we're really likely to see uh like especially when we get these QCW revisions a 50 BP cut just like we did last September.
And that's what the bond market is starting to price in right now. We're seeing the same thing, mind you, in some of the qualitative surveys. When we look at surveys, what are we finding? It's blatant. We're seeing a lot of inventory building, but we're seeing a lack of new orders. That means GDP looks like it's still strong, but it's really just inventory building so companies can get ahead of tariffs that are still taking effect.
I just went to a flooring store yesterday and I'm told, "Dude, we went five months without any changes because of tariffs to our pricing because these companies had so much inventory. Now we're starting to get the letters that when this inventory is out, prices are going up. So all of that is to say that yes, in the short term, yeah, we could still see some price hikes.
That's fine. But massive deflation is going to come after that should the jobs market continue to grow. this slowly and I expect it will. So be prepared for all of that. Massive deflation is a good thing to the extent that you have a job and to the extent that you have capital to actually deploy. This is exactly why house hack is doing what it's doing.
And remember, if you ever want to invest in house, you can always go to house hack.com to learn more. , and get familiar with the investment. Check it out over at houseack.com. So, uh, with all of that said, we are now going to jump on over to our course member liveream. Thank you so very much for being here and we'll see y'al.
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