저자: CathieWood · 외국인
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캐시 우드는 테슬라를 5년 투자 관점에서 보유하며 현재 주가 175달러 대비 7~10배 상승을 기대한다고 밝힘. 자율주행 로보택시가 현실화되면 ARK의 기존 공정가치 2,000달러 이상(2028년 기준 상향 예정)이 가능하다고 주장. 반면 대부분 애널리스트가 로보택시를 모델에 반영하지 않아 확률을 사실상 0으로 두고 있다고 비판. 중간에 AG1 광고가 다수 포함됨.
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well I'm sure approximately zero people could have seen this coming Kathy Wood has some thoughts about Tesla many people do not understand that there's a lot of other surreptitious competition evolving out there uh each of the hyperscalers uh is evolving its own chip strategy you have a Tesla that uh has designed its own chip for AI chip for the specialized more specialized autonomous driving opportunity and I think you're going to see a lot of companies developing more specialized chips um I think Kathy's on to something here now that the Penny's dropped so to speak and people have realized the Colossal opportunity that all forms of AI represent in the future it doesn't make a whole lot of sense to be doing AI Based training on generalized chips that were not specifically designed for specific types of training now I understand gpus F great bang for buck relatively speaking but if you have a meaningful AI application with enormous potential Financial opportunity EG autonomy much better for you to be training on Specialized chips that have been designed either by you ideally internally or alternatively by someone external but specifically for that job when the numbers get big enough the scale gets large enough it makes a hell of a lot of sense there is a reason Tesla designed their Dojo chip um we know that uh Nvidia of course will segment the market as well so um think that a lot of the assumptions for NVIDIA you know that this is nvidia's market and it's alone that those are changing includ yeah so Kathy I want to move on to Tesla because you brought it up a moment ago um you've been a long time Bull on Tesla you have been buying shares recently uh after selling them for most of 2023 the stock down about 30% so far this year we covered the news this week that shipin from Tesla's Shanghai Factory sank to the lowest in over a year in February the challenges uh do I have to um John's New Year two weeks of inactivity please tell me he's going to add this explanation I mean surely look I don't want to be like too obnoxious here but let's just say you got 12 or 13 weeks in a quarter right call it 4 and a/ qu weeks per month that's 13 weeks if for two of those weeks you ain't making Vehicles everyone's on holiday nothing's happening the supply aren't doing [ __ ] because they're celebrating the Chinese New Year that means you've in effect lost about 15% of the quarter compared to every other quarter in which you didn't lose 2 weeks AKA 15% what do you think's going to happen makes her a great headline but doesn't tell us anything meaningful other than China takes New Year's celebrations very seriously facing the EV industry have been well documented we talked about those a lot um why do you still like Tesla cover considering all of the challenges in the EV space and also what many critics would say are disappointing fundamentals uh so yes you're right we were selling last year as it was uh in the 300 to $400 range it's back to 175 um and this is what portfolio managers do we have a five-year investment time Horizon uh for Tesla and our uh price expectations uh from here I mean we see roughly uh a a s to 10 fold increase um I know we're in oh is that all 7 to 10 fold what a terrible opportunity I think I'll stick to the index funds so serious question is anyone aware of any other companies whose stock they personally believe could in theory over a 5year time frame see anywhere from a 7 to 10 times increase in value not just based on your feelings or sticking your finger into the wind but on a valuation model please let me know in the comments below I'd actually be quite interested I'd love to know your reasoning I'm sure you could make the case for many companies purely based on Hope but I'm asking more in terms of reality AR invest appear to be quite the contradiction to actively trading in and out of stocks that they personally believe over 5 years can do a 7 to 10x but I get it they're managing people's money got to show activity here's a question let's just say Kathy Wood's right about Tesla over the next 5 years Tesla stocked us a 7 to 10x will there be any Arc funds let alone the average of all of them that will have seen a 7 to 10x increase in value over that same time frame in other words we're being all in no Tesla stock outperform all of the arc funds Food For Thought in the process of revising our model so I'm um not at Liberty to give you the new number but would that new number be higher or lower than 2000 well we're pushing it out a year and uh and therefore it will be higher because the autonomous taxi platform uh opportunity will be in full force we think and then and we well that's a big deal the fact that Kathy has disclosed what is seemingly obvious in case you guys have forgotten are unaware the most recent Fair valuation for Tesla stock from AR invest which was a 5-year Fair valuation for 2027 was $2,000 per share so this means that the new number is more than $2,000 per share for 2028 now this is important because Kathy mentioned previously a 7 to 10x on Tesla stock over 5year time frame but also with the caveat she's not at Liberty to say exact numbers because they're yet to publish their new valuation model as I record this Tesla stock $175 per share ra for impact when arest dropped their new Tesla Fair valuation I think a 7 10x is a massive massive low ball just do the math what would Tesa need to do from today from $175 per share to hit 2,000 exactly and it's going to be more than 2,000 we believe that Tesla will get the Lion Share of that market here in the US if not elsewhere uh autonomous taxi platforms are SAS models uh Tesla's current gross margin is well it's in the teens right now because it's been cutting prices but we think normalized the EV margin is in the 30% range SAS margins are in the 80% range most analysts focusing on the stock have nothing in uh their models or very little for autonomous this is true and emblematic of the pacification of Wall Street I still just cannot wrap my head around the fact that very few analysts and and I mean very few are willing to make a probabilistic model about future outcomes and weight those probabilities and produce a valuation accordingly surely the probability of Tesla successfully launching an highly profitable autonomous robot taxi service is more than zero if it ain't in your model you've assigned a probability of zero that's to me clearly a mistake yeah the probability is obviously not 100 nothing's ever 100% certain the fact that as Kathy points out most analysts are completely ignoring this well the probability is certainly not zero but I'm going to assume it is zero just wait given the potential scale of this we're talking trillions of dollars here I'm just not sure these people should be taken seriously and again perhaps I shouldn't either there seems to be a complete utter lack of Courage and the potential upside here is just so enormous of all the things to ignore one of the biggest opportunities in Generations literally no hyperb just ignore it even though you know the probability is greater than zero but you're assuming it's zero based on your valuation model stunning our confidence that autonomous is um is going to happen has increased because it has happened uh we see way most successful we see a lot of success uh and Commercial Success that is in China it can be done uh we think Tesla will launch a national service and Tesla this is where AI comes in Tesla has orders of magnitude more data than all of the other Auto and tech company comp companies uh going after this Market combined and what's important about that is is that it has Corner cases that nobody else has rare rare occurrences in uh on the roads that that uh that it has recorded and it is prepared for but others aren't they just don't have I I just want to jump in it's it's kind of like a running joke with with the Tesla Community because Elon Musk says every year we're going to have uh this autonomous driving technology and every year since he started saying it what 2017 2018 it has it has failed to materialize why are you so confident it's going to happen in the near future well because it has happened as I just said uh and so it's not it's not if it is when that's the most important uh reason interestingly in in his last conference call Tesla's last conference call Elon said yeah I know I've been wrong about it so I'm not even going to make a projection I actually thought that was good and maybe it has a better shot now uh and we're looking at some of their hiring and their posting job postings and and seeing Rumblings in different cities that uh they're starting to to get ready hey Kathy something I know I've brought up this with you before but I think back to our our you and my first interview back in May of 2014 so almost 10 years ago but you brought up Elon Musk when he wasn't a household name or what his company was doing and you likened him to Thomas Edison and I guess what I want to ask you you know this individual you talk with him you followed him obviously for a long time do you ever feel you know do you feel that way still about him in terms of likening to someone like Thomas Edison and and how do you find Clarity so maybe she's just making conversation but Kathy would made the analogy and by the way it's a accurate one ELO musk akin to Thomas Edison incredible innovator and so on unless the guy had suffered severe brain damage and was no longer capable of thinking and acting why would any of that change oh wait cuz El has opinions such a strange question this would be like saying to a sports commentator years ago you said Michael Jordan was an incredible athlete at his peak one of the best to ever do it do you still think he was one of the best to ever do it what and feel comfort in some of the questionable and controversial things that that Elon comments on or that he said now there we go El has opinions therefore his capabilities his competence would you question that now suddenly because Elon has opinions what what the [ __ ] bro oh this is such a just a dumb question I think she's fishing for Kathy Wood to say Alon bad I wish Alon would stop having opinions ain't going to happen believe it or not it seems quite clear to me that Kathy Wood is a big fan of people with balls and courage and freedom read between the lines in some of her commentary historically I've watched a lot of her interviews she seems to be a big fan of that big F word once again Freedom yes yes um well we um we we're focused on the technology and we're and as is he uh he is the inventor of our age and this age is a very special age because uh the five major Innovation what a master Kathy Wood has completely dodged the Elon bad Elon opinion bad question and just brought the focus back to things that matter I mean that's just a absolute masterful example right there just been a baited in and she has not taken the bait platforms around which we have centered our research um are converging and three of them he is helping to converge this autonomous taxi platform opportunity is the convergence of Robotics autonomous vehicles are robots energy storage they will be electric right and artificial intelligence where those are three separate es curves feeding each other uh and and and should lead to Super exponential growth he has understood this idea that Technologies are going to converge with one another and that is the way he's been thinking his first principal's research just because something's been done one way for a very long time think Autos doesn't mean it's going to remain that way and that's why he's I can hear her already in the background but but but he has opinions what about his opinions Kathy is Alon bad you can I'm going to want to you can hear her just desperate to get in there and just El bad but say something about El's opinions please gety wood please I got to read one like five seconds that's [ __ ] hilarious his first principal's research just because something's been done one way for a very long time think Autos doesn't mean it's going to remain that way and that's why he's going to win do you ever feel though that he gets distracted I think she might have read the room here and realized that she's not quite going to get a neon bad so maybe she can just attempt to use the term distracted distract e distracted by sharing his thoughts distracted by Elon bad's opinions shouldn't he stay off X and just make vehicles and Rockets I mean for [ __ ] sake if you look at what this guy's done puts literally every other human on the planet to shame in terms of productivity distracted come on bro or is or can to much yeah he is so laser focused on technology um and and he in in the case of Tesla the electric vehicle side that is on automatic pilot they are just scaling and what is doing is becoming you know the manufacturer of factories uh he's trying to figure out how to automate and continue to drive down the cost there his focus is on autonomous now certainly and uh of course you can say on X he's distracted but he's really more focused on the Innovation how can I go back to the future where I started which was in the payments app space sold to PayPal uh how can I turn this into not only a payments app uh but an everything app and I think he's hard at work doing that in ways that we don't know yet always fascinating to hear what Kathy Wood has to say it's also fascinating to see people's appreciation and or lack thereof for Kathy Wood almost perfectly track the performance of Tesla stock I think her comments are going to age particularly well especially regarding the analysts on Wall Street the majority of whom literally don't even have Robo taxis in their Tes evaluation model therefore tacitly assuming that the probability of this occurring is literally 0% a 0% probability for a multi- trillion dollar opportunity probably not going to age well want more content 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