저자: Kevin · 외국인
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테슬라 2021년 1분기 실적발표 요약. 모델3 생산 확대와 S/X 리툴링으로 인한 2억달러 비용, 연구개발비 증가 언급. 비트코인 일부(10%) 매도 및 장기 보유 의지 언급. 솔라루프·파워월 설치 방식과 텍사스 사고 조사 상황 정리. 4680 배터리 양산은 내년 목표이며 자동운전(FSD)은 아직 구독화 미정. 전반적으로 새로운 발표가 적은 날이었다고 평가.
다듬은 글
everyone kevin here so here's a complete breakdown of what we learned from the tesla earnings call so it's a summary of it the first elon musk came out talked about uh the highest demand that we have ever seen for vehicles at a tesla that the model 3 at tesla is on pace to produce 250 000 vehicles uh current well it's actually producing 250 000 vehicles at its current rate and its rate will be at 500 000 model 3s per year next year so that rate of production from model 3s is expected to double the model 3 currently one of the best or actually the best selling uh premium sedan in the world but expecting the model y elon said this to become the best selling vehicle of any time next year but more likely by 2023 beating all other cars or trucks great progress on a full self-driving we'll talk more about that later elon talked about some of the challenges about how you need a very powerful computer using only 70 to 80 watts talked about the how important of a step it is to eliminate the crutch of having radar as a tool that you use to sort of back up your uh visual or vision systems in the autonomous systems so elon wants a superhuman stereo video autonomous system that can basically look at eight cameras 35 frames per second data all at the same time and then with context of all the cameras coming together at the same time be able to label what's going on surrounding the vehicle and make decisions without the use of a radar or certainly lidar the word lidar wasn't even mentioned once on the call he talked a little bit about some difficulties regarding this also talked about some of the difficulties regarding the model s and x about how there were more challenges than expected remember they're completely tearing out the inside redoing the inside they're doing the new battery new drive units new internal electronics playstation 5 level infotainment system and that they've had lots of issues the elon musk also touched on and i thought this was a little bit weird but basically what they're doing is because they're not done with some of the s and x's the first ones that they're producing are probably the new model s's they're kind of backing them into the yard and then putting them back into the factory to kind of keep making modifications to them i have to say that struck me as a little odd their goal is to produce uh 2000 s and x's per week potentially as high as 224 to 2500 s and x's and that these when they are done will be superior vehicles and they expect to get to volume uh soon they expect to start deliveries next month of the s the x will come later with new deliveries and uh that they hope to get to full volume on the snx by next year that puts them on pace for somewhere around uh let's see if we do two 52 weeks times uh 2000 that puts us around 100 4 000 vehicles uh on the low side per year for s and x's that'll certainly help the average of vehicle selling prices go up substantially and on the high side we expect potentially as many as 130 000 s and x's to be produced and built on a financials obviously there was a big impact on profits the big line here so that you can do some math was that 200 million dollars of extra loss was baked into quarter one revenue or quarter one expenses into their costs of goods solds and automotive revenues or i'm sorry automotive expenditures due to the s x re-ramp the retooling cost 200 million dollars and that's not even to mention the lack of revenue and despite this automotive gross margins still went up so in my opinion that's really good news but tesla after hours after this earnings call is settling down about 1.3 i'm sorry 2.33 percent uh most folks not too excited about how the earnings call went though this particularly in my opinion was a very strong moment here uh and uh the candlesticks did start agreeing uh at uh at the time of this reveal as well uh they also indicated that research and development expenses increased because of their continued development on the 4680 cells the new battery packs artificial intelligence and the s and x retooling so it looks like you've got some operating expenses going into the snx process itself like the the factory line retooling but then also our research and development expenses going into the snx so a lot of extra expenses here they talked about trimming about 10 off their bitcoin position but they talked about how they do plan to still invest in bitcoin for the long run and convert uh more of their vehicle purchases from bitcoin into uh bitcoin that they hold for the long run they did sell 10 they said that this was just for liquidity purposes that they want something that they can easily buy and sell through on the dojo supercomputer elon musk went into a very detailed explanation here and i kind of gave you a little summary already with that eight camera simultaneous labeling that's where they want to get to in the future remember we've done this before on this channel you know those matterport 3d scans that i show you on this channel i love matterport i love the technology metaport does this as well where they scan a place and then their artificial intelligence starts automatically labeling oh okay i think this is a smoke detector oh that's a door okay that's this or whatever that's going to be huge for insurance purposes right public company ghvi well it's a smack merger but anyway elon is trying to do this on the fly so like in real time as a car is moving and then have a system be able to automatically label okay that's a kayak on top of a car that's a truck on top of another truck and be able to label these things but these things are challenging and so we gave some examples about how basically they're writing the software that's trying to start auto labeling and that trainers then go through and fact check no that's not a donkey that's a car or whatever and then when they make those edits they actually help train the system even more but basically they expect that dojo in the future could potentially even be used by others but keep in mind we did see toyota bail on that rumor that we saw a few months ago that toyota might want to partner with tesla to use tesla's autonomy system but recently bailed on that my assumption they bailed on that tesla talk because the toyota instead today bought lyft's self-driving uh products which i didn't even know that lyft had a self-driving product on solar roof they say that demand is still in excess of uh what they can produce there was some uh there was a question about why is it that people are getting much you know being asked to basically pay double for the roof elon musk kind of talked this up as uh being uh more of an issue with people's roofs that elon's going or the you know the staff's going to a roof and they're like come on man like your roof is totally rotted out it's going to cost twice as much to do this keep in mind i have had this experience with tesla myself not on the solar roof but on the solar panels basically i asked for a panel they come out and the roof in my opinion looks fine not leaking i've had my roof certified by licensed roofers they do tune-ups on my rental properties tesla will go out and go you know this is we just don't want to put a 20-year solar panel on this roof we want you to replace the roof or we want you to replace half the roof or whatever and then they give me a fat sort of contractor estimate that they can they can subcontract to tesla probably get some some decent amount of profit from doing that by you know taking a little bit of a spread between for that referral purpose but uh yeah that is uh that's been a common issue with with tesla is you kind of getting the uh uh the uh up charge a bill from the contractors but that is the nature of construction as well so on one hand i don't blame them i mean they don't want to get suckered into uh you know putting their panels or even solar roof on top of crap lumber or whatever but um and on the retrofit panels they put a 20-year panel on you know a roof that only has five years left uh you know i get it that could create some problems anyway in those cases elon musk says they just refund deposits okay fine a big thing about the solar discussion though was uh about simplifying the installation of a solar panels and so this was a little tricky i'm gonna make this as simple as possible and honestly i think the easiest way to explain the uh what elon musk is talking about when it comes to the the why elon musk wants the solar battery pack included in the solar system is just by doing a very quick rudimentary explanation here so generally if somebody wants solar panels on the roof and they have a main circuit panel over here and you want to add solar panels on the roof you're going to have something known as an inverter that gets installed and then generally you need a few breakers free in the panel which when you need a few breakers free in the panel to power that or to connect with that inverter you have to do a lot of rewiring inside of that main panel and so what they're doing instead is saying well if we have a power wall and we install a power wall so we'll just go ahead and put pw here for powerwall well we're going to have an actual panel over here for the for the power wall and what we're going to do is we're just going to feed all of the circuits that are supposed to be backed up by the uh that are that are wiring through this panel we're going to splice off those go into this sub panel and then the power wall is going to go over here so all of a sudden you have a very very simple way to install solar where you don't have to screw around with rewiring the panel because you're trying to jam some new breakers in there what you're really doing is you're just routing off of the main into this new sub panel and letting the power wall feed those circuits keep in mind the power wall does not have to feed every single circuit in the house just whatever circuits either the system was designed for so that's my overly simplifying not an electrician here understanding of a simplified uh you know explanation here on on what's going on so in other words uh elon musk is basically saying look it's much easier for us to install the power walls on every solar system on top of that we make much more money and that's also a very good motivation now elon musk did give a long-winded explanation about how having batteries and houses is actually really important because people are using more electricity because they have electric vehicles now and we have bad weather that can cause more issues and more outages and more strain on systems basically elon musk is saying yo we putting power walls in now with our solar panels like it or not okay is that freaking simple all right we already talked about the coin no new announcements on like dogecoin or whatever all right then we get to this this crash in texas okay this crash in texas folks this was this explanation was the most garbage explanation they could have possibly come up with but i think we have a conclusion here as to what roughly they said so uh and i tweeted this as well so roughly our understanding is that auto steer which is basically autopilot when you don't have the full self-driving auto steer would have only accelerated on the road where the accident happened to 30 miles per hour this implies given that the car burst into flames which you do not expect to happen at 35 mile or 30 miles an hour this implies the car was not on auto steer so it probably means somebody launched the car like let's go zero to 60 let's go because again remember what i said with that fiery crash i'm expecting it to reveal that this car was going at least 50 to 60 miles an hour if not even 70 to 80 miles an hour but at least 56 so when i had 30 i initially got a little concerned uh confused uh we re-listened and re-thought about what was said uh and uh so that's where the 30 mile an hour limitation come from uh so this does imply that the car was traveling faster without auto steer on we did not get an indication of the speed of the crash and that seat belts were found to be unbuckled now we do not know if the seat belts were unbuckled at the beginning of when they started driving or if uh if the seat belts were unbuckled after the crash we do not know that the seat belts were just found unbuckled however there is an indication due to a deformed steering wheel that somebody was in the driver's seat at the time of the crash which and think about it if somebody was in the driver's seat at the time of the crash and let's say they were unbuckled uh you would you would probably have a lot of mass going into that steering wheel leading to some deformant now you would expect the airbag to go off so so i don't i don't know the mechanics of airbag verse body going into airbag versus still deforming the steering wheel i don't know obviously i would expect the deforming of the steering wheel to be a lot worse if the person was not buckled up obviously but we don't have that answer and they did mention that the sd card uh which does record data on the car was not able to be recovered however it is uh they are working on trying to recover data from that sd card then we've got on 4680s uh they they dispelled some rumors about vampire drain uh they talked about how lithium iron batter lithium ion batteries are only really one to two percent lithium and that there's no shortage of iron phosphate lithium batteries iron phosphate batteries are the cheaper ones the 4680 ones are the or the um the iron phosphate ones are the ones being manufactured in china a lot of the teslas have those the 4680s are the new structural batteries and those are the ones that they're trying to ramp they're really expecting to get to volume production next year on the 4680s but they do think well actually yeah that redirects they do expect it's going to be 12 to 18 months which again does align with next year they are aiming for comparable margins this was a big one comparable margins in storage as they are in a vehicle which is great because vehicle margins they're aiming for 30 but elon musk mentions like mega packs power walls and we're nowhere near scale yet but we are expecting margins to eventually approach what the vehicle manufacturing margins are which that's 20 to 30 percent honestly that's a lot higher than the margins that i had been giving for energy so i think that's great however i expect that to decline as they continue to do solar panel installs because solar panel installs are low margin but the batteries are higher margin on full self driving a subscription still working on it maybe they'll do recurring revenue in the future but too soon to make any announcements on the conference call on getting to a 25 000 vehicle uh elon musk mentions and the other staff mentions look there are many things we can do uh reducing the amounts of pieces that go into a car obviously streamlining the pieces that are used in conjunction between all the different cars continue to find cost reduction scale uh the volume of having four factories building the same vehicles all that helps and on berlin and austin ramp we'll get there no real news here i think the big takeaway from what we got from tesla today was really no news unfortunately a lot of today was uh no news a big no news day for tesla not so great it's kind of more of a like a hurry up in weight and i think that's why we're seeing some negativity in the stock especially with that average selling price declining as the s x's aren't being produced obviously when you take very expensive cars like 80 to 100 000 cars out of your product mix your average selling price will naturally decline so uh there you go there you have a complete summary of what the heck happened in the earnings call as well as a little bit with the earnings like subscrib if you like the way i explain things on building your wealth whether through real estate investing stock investing sales making youtube videos property management rental renovations you can even bundle them all together that coupon code is expiring soon thank you so much for being here everyone i appreciate you all i'm off to play minecraft with jack now thanks so much and we'll see in the next one
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