저자: EdYardeni · 외국인
요약 보기
Yardeni는 트럼프 정책의 인플레 압력으로 연준이 연내·내년 초까지 금리 인하에 소극적일 것이라 본다. 미국 경기는 강하고 유럽은 약하며 중국 부양책 효과는 제한적이라 본다. 주식시장은 1999년식 과열 신호가 보여 내년 조정 가능성을 경계한다. 인도 조정은 펀더멘털 훼손이 아니고 총선 안정이 긍정적이라 본다. 달러는 강세 기조가 유지된다고 본다.
다듬은 글
okay well Ed yini is with US president at yini research Ed good morning great to have you with us here as always thank you for your time Prashant the side I mean of course there is the local state election which is providing a big boost but I want to start with what's what's your take on Mr Scott bessent uh the the Trump's nominee for treasury secretary dollar is down half a percent this morning well I think uh that's not a reaction to bessent I think there's a perception that he's a solid citizen that he's certainly knows a lot about markets and when you're at the treasury Department it's I think extremely important that uh the the person in charge has a lot of experience in the Capital Market so I think we're in we're in good hands I think uh it'll be relatively conservative compared to perhaps some of the policy initiatives that Trump would like to propose but uh he's uh obviously going to go along with a program and so uh I I desire that he will you know pursue the the Tariff uh increases that Trump is proposing but all in all I I don't think the Dollar's down because he was appointed I just think you know we've had a heck of a move in the in the dollar and it's uh easing off a bit that's all so one 107 on the index dollar Index you think because last time as well we came around these levels and the dollar I mean we had a bit of a pullback so this is it or you so majority of the Trump think is pricing the dollar no no I I think the dollar remains strong I mean the reality is the European economies remain awfully weak we saw that in the recent purchasing managers indexes um I'm not convinced that stimulus programs that China has imp do much to lift their econ maybe it'll kind of provide a floor but I don't think you're going to see economy doing uh much better simply because uh the property Market is still in distress but again maybe it just doesn't get worse but I don't think it gets a lot better and meanwhile I think the FED is going to increasingly signal that they're not going to be lowering interest rates anytime soon that they may very well pa in December and into January and into March and the reason for that is the economy is doing extremely well inflation is moderating uh still and at the same time the FED has to start incorporating the likelihood for fiscal policy and under Trump we could have some inflationary pressures from higher tariffs under Trump we could have some inflationary pressures from a stronger economy so the FED has to concede that and reflect that in its monetary policy uh hi Mr y yini good to have you on so if those concerns are going to play out which means the FED is not going to be as charitable as we previously thought for the reasons that you mentioned then is the equity markets optimism well placed I mean Equity markets are getting into you know December Santa Claus mode already whereas other asset classes like gold like oil for that matter are showing greater concern with respect to geopolitics um you know and and other such situations what do you think is the equity Market rally going to uh be intact I I think the fact that so many assets are in fact rallying suggests that we're getting into sort of a melt-up mode uh rally mode that's partly Santa Claus and partly 1999 all over again uh so I I I think that the value multiples in the stock market are stretched but the US econom is doing very well the FED really doesn't have to lower interest rates here because of the resilience of the economy earnings are going to continue to be surprisingly strong and so I I think we could have an earnings lead melt up which really isn't a melt up usually a melt up was followed by a meltdown but if earnings are going to be pushing the market higher that's that's fine but I am a little bit uneasy that so many asset classes are going vertical here that suggests that there may be too much optimism tooo much Euphoria and that there could be some reason for a correction next year and of course there's a lot of moving parts to Trump 2.0 and we don't know how they're all going to interact it's like a a patient taking some medicine and it seems to work and then all of a sudden they're taking another kind of medicine and it seems to work and before you know it they interact in a way that nobody expected so that's that's some of the concerns I have about 2025 unexpected from president Trump so we'll stay tuned to that but Ed you know the Indian markets have relatively underperformed just in the recent past the last 45 years to around 2 months or thereabouts uh at current positioning how how would you rate the Indian markets in comparison to what's going on in the United States that Chinese stimulus hasn't really played out according to what most Market Watchers were awaiting so where does India fit into the scheme of things we've seen a bit of a correction our earnings have been a little bit weak but as you have said in the past we are a strong economy and headed up in the longer term yeah I think at the end of the day what matters is the economy whether the economy is growing or falling into recession there's there's no reason to believe that India is falling into recession or or anywhere near a recession same same goes for the United States China is not is a little less certain I mean it I think in some M ways are in a recession and maybe all are doing is stabilizing the as I said just kind of making in their economy but I don't see lot of upside anytime soon so I think when Global Investors look at the fundamentals the fundamentals look good in the US they look very good in India as well not so good in in in Europe and U uncertain in China so you put it all together and I think what you just saw in India was a correction I think the election results suggesting political stability and more uh certainty about where macroeconomic policy is going to go is obviously a positive for the Indian market okay and yes we are expecting the Indian market to react to that big big win of the NDA let's see what the verdict is thank you very much for joining us this morning and uh you know uh and giving us those insights
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