저자: KevinPaffrath · 외국인
요약 보기
테슬라 주가 급락 원인을 세금 손실 수확(tax loss harvesting) 시즌, 금리 상승 민감성, HSBC의 약세 목표가($146), 사이버트럭 기대치 하향, 노조화 리스크 등으로 설명. 2030년 2,000만 대 생산 목표는 달성 가능성이 있다고 분석. 금리 민감 업종과 칩 업종을 나눠 분산 보유하는 전략 제시. 개인화된 투자 조언이 아니라고 명시.
다듬은 글
Oh boy, Tesla's absolutely getting reamed in the stock market today and there are a few catalysts as to why. One of them you're not going to want to hear about. I'm just going to start with it. Remember what happened at the end of last year? Wasn't good. Tesla lost $100 in the span of 30 days. Yeah, I kid you not.
And that pain started, guess what date? December 1st. It literally happened all in December. Look at this pain. You went from $192 on Tesla down to 101. Free fall into the end of the year. Now, there was a reason for that. Tax loss harvesting. Will that happen again? Well, here's the thing. Now, this is this is an interesting one, okay?
In order to tax loss harvest, you have to have gains somewhere to offset. A lot of people are making the argument that this year's tax loss harvesting cycle for stocks that are getting beat up at towards the end of the year here won't be as bad because people have less gains to offset elsewhere or their income is lower elsewhere.
So, maybe the end of this year won't actually be as painful as last year. We also have substantially fewer inflation fears compared to the fears that we had last year where we still thought there was a reasonable possibility of getting Paul Volcker. Fortunately, those fears have subsided and the hopeful reality is that we won't revisit some of the pain of last year.
However, this is tax loss harvesting time. This is the time when financial advisers call their clients and when bankers call their clients and go, "Hey, want to do some loss harvesting?" That way they can churn out some commishes if they're brokers or, you know, do their job. I mean, either as a broker or an investment advisor suggesting, "Hey, here's a tax savings opportunity for you." That is the way the world works.
So, that is very common. Fortunately, it doesn't seem like we have Elon selling pressure again this year. But, what we do have is pessimism. For example, HSBC today released their bearish price target for Tesla suggesting Tesla could go down to $146 per share. That's exactly the opposite of what's happening with the Newbie vs.
Pro courses where this Friday the price will be going up. So, be your last chance to get in under $100 for the Newbie vs. Pro pre-sales. There like 10 different courses there you could choose from. You want any kind of special bundles with some of the existing courses, make sure to email us at [email protected].
But, let's understand this right here. HSBC's $146 price target is based on the challenge of actually getting to 20 million vehicles produced by the year 2030. Now, we're about to roll into 2024 and for 2024 we're looking at maybe being able to get growth of about 35% on vehicles delivered. Maybe we're lucky we get to like 39%.
That would get us to about 2.5 million vehicles for Tesla. Okay, 2.5 million vehicles per for Tesla in 2024 it's going to have to grow at a pretty good rate to try to get to 20 million vehicles by the end of the year. If we do the math quickly together, we go we got 25, 26, 27, 28, 5, 6, 7, 8. Yeah, there we go.
One more two more. If I compound 2.5 million vehicles by 30% growth rate all the way through 2030, I get to about 12 million vehicles by 2030. That's at a 30% growth rate. Now, if we go at the current growth rate of about 39%, so we go all the way up to basically nearly 40%, we're getting to about 18 million vehicles.
And that's about the trajectory we're on right now. To get to 20 million vehicles, you really only have to grow by about 41%. So, I'm not entirely sure that HSBC's argument is highly valid that that can't be pulled off. Uh but, I will say with interest rates at this level, it does feel unlikely that Tesla would grow at 41%, especially since Elon Musk in the last earnings call reiterated that, "Hey, you know, our target of growing 50% CAGR, compounded annual growth rate, it gets harder as the numbers get bigger and bigger." Now, we do have the facilities to facilitate a lot of growth for Tesla.
Giga Berlin and Texas just now really scaling. A lot of empty room still to fill up. We've got the permits ready for Giga Mexico, but Elon's slow walking that thanks to well, how hard it is to sell cars when interest rates are as high as they are. Now, the good news is there's a belief that maybe these rates have finally peaked out.
Bonds right now, though, every day we get fluctuation. We're not going straight down, right? We're 455 right now. We've been sitting there for about 3 days now after that jobs report, been relatively stable. What else do we know? Well, we know that Adam Jonas suggests that Elon's influence over investor sentiment is pretty big.
And unfortunately, Elon's attitude was slightly, if not outright pessimistic in the last earnings call. Now, maybe it's understandably just realistic, right? That of course, when interest rates are high, Tesla's going to suffer. It's an interest rate sensitive sector, unlike Nvidia, which isn't. Now, a lot of folks have been hitting me up saying, "Kevin, why is Nvidia rising again?" Well, Nvidia's a fantastic stock.
It's a great company. But, you have to think about the customer base. The customer base of an Nvidia chip is a rich corporation with plenty of cash to invest. They just move their cap backs from one area to another, and they're milking money off of interest rates. The opposite is true for Tesla. Tesla customers are getting absolutely reamed by higher rates.
It's kind of like you look at people getting reamed over at Disney. And so, Disney stock, even though it's doing fantastic today, up 7%, Disney stock has been a complete cluster F uh for really, quite frankly, the last 2 years. I mean, we're at COVID lows, essentially. But, what's it actually been good for?
50% of users are now signing up for the ad-supported tier at Disney, which is surprising, but it's great for a company like Trade Desk, which supports connected TV advertising. It's a platform for shopping for connected TV advertising. Uh anyway, uh another thing that's hitting Tesla a bit right now is this idea that oh, what about the Cybertruck?
Uh expectations for the Cybertruck are being reduced. You've got bearish news almost daily on the Cybertruck, people complaining about prototypes having panel gaps, and a lot of this is just straight nonsense. But, also the idea that most of the profit from Tesla, and this is the bull argument, will come from SAS software, FSD.
Now, Cruise just had a very embarrassing failure, revealing that they use more drivers for their driverless cars than Uber uses per car, which is kind of scary. The New York Times revealed in their reporting that 1.5 humans engage for every single Cruise that's on roads. So, in other words, you have 1.5 workers working on every single Cruise that's driving at any given time.
And that's why human interventions occur every about 4 to 5 mi that the car drives. That's not good. That's not autonomous technology. On the flip side, Tesla's autopilot to say, "Hey, does it have some quirks with some updates?" Of course, every single time. Is it getting so much substantially better over the last 3 years to where we justify the stock price being flat?
Probably not. The stock should be representing a substantially more value, but unfortunately, it's very difficult in this sort of environment and it's just an easy short to take. Interest rates up, short the interest rate sensitive sectors. It's an easy trade. It's a rough time, tax loss harvesting time, and you're getting these price targets coming out from companies that are really just jumping on the bandwagon of a declining stock.
It's a great time to increase position and allocation, potentially. Obviously, not personalized advice for you. The problem though with that is people are out of money. So, what are you going to sell? What are you going to Where are you going to get more money to be able to buy and increase your allocation to the stock?
So, that is something else that is hurting Tesla stock in the near term. Uh otherwise, uh it's worth looking at uh competition fears. Briefly, I mean, first of all, we know there's virtually no competition. You look at um Volkswagen though. Volkswagen's talking about how they're trying to come up with a $35,000 vehicle within the next 3 to 4 years.
But quite frankly, every legacy auto that has suggested they're going to come up with a an electric vehicle has either scaled back their plans or has taken substantial losses. Really, your best competition right now for Tesla is Rivian. But I mean, just compare the numbers for a moment. Tesla produces 24 uh or I'm sorry, uh Tesla produces 150,000 cars per month.
Rivian's manufacturing 24,000 in a 6-month period, which means you're actually sitting at 4,000 vehicles per month. Ouch. Reuters uh uh you know, reporting that uh Volkswagen's $35,000 electric vehicle could take 3 to 4 months and be built in either the US or Mexico. That to me is actually a reiteration that Tesla building in Mexico is a smart decision because you're getting the benefits of the Inflation Reduction Act, but you're using Mexican labor, which is about 25% the cost.
Your prevailing wage in northeastern Mexico is like $3.50. You go to California, it's like 25 bucks or more. Uh and then on top of this, you also have more bearish commentary about uh unionization. Uh for example, what do you have here? Biden supports UAW unionization at Tesla and Toyota. That's not great, especially since Biden holds the purse.
Uh yes, Biden carries a purse of inflation reduction attacks credits and interpretations for uh electric vehicle charging stations and otherwise. Problem with this is it is possible that could try to put the screws to Tesla and say, "Look, if you want to keep getting credits, we're going to demand some unionization." That's pure speculation right now.
That's not confirmed at all. I just do think a lot of people are going to be very fearful about that potential happening. Personally, I actually don't think it's that big of a deal uh that uh that that unionization might be on its way. Uh I do think it would be a short-term negative catalyst, but what's more of an impact, in my opinion, for Tesla is hands-down simply rates.
HSBC goes on to also call uh the uh Tesla problem a problem of the single man risk. I actually don't really believe that. I know HSBC is a big fan of believing that Elon's the best marketer possible for Tesla, which is true, especially when they don't really do ads. Uh you know, it's also their their uh their community.
But really, what you have with with Elon is somebody who has inspired a a my opinion fantastic company at Tesla. And also, even at Twitter, what's going on. You know, I was complaining about 2 weeks ago that uh community notes will community note one video and go this is a fake video, but then 10,000 other people will retweet the video and the community notes doesn't carry over.
And just yesterday Elon announced on Twitter that they are now automatically matching community notes when the content IDs line up. So, if people retweet the same thing, the same community note goes across. Like, I do actually strongly believe the people at Tesla and Twitter listen to the community.
And you know, I I know sometimes people are like, "Oh, Kevin, too critical, too critical." Whatever. One of the reasons I shout or scream ideas that I have is just to hopefully give some perspective, and then people uh working at Twitter or Tesla can go, "Bad idea. Actually, that's not a bad idea. We'll take that one.
Don't like that. Don't like that. Ooh, I like that one." You know, it's like go pick ideas, right? And I think as a community, that's that's how we help support uh the companies that we're fans of. But anyway, in the meantime, yeah, look. It's tough time. It's a tough time. There's There's no sugarcoating it.
It's a tough time. I do think that uh we are at a place where inflation is is substantially rolling over. It's going to take time for inflation expectations to actually show that. People have to feel like the pain is ending before the pain can truly end. I know that's tough though because it really takes, you know, time to to get rid of the pain.
So, in other words, I wouldn't go be going uh uh with that with some short-term call options anytime soon. But, am I a big fan of holding firm on some of these stocks and balancing some of the exposure? The way I like to balance it is I like to go chips, and I like to go interest rate sensitive. That way I have If one side of the portfolio is doing well, the other side of the portfolio uh might be doing poorly, but they somewhat balance each other.
Uh and I do think both of them as rates come down, chip sector continues to blow up, and then you get the interest rate sensitive sector that blows up as well. That's personally one of the ways that I'm setting up for the next, really, decade. It's very painful right now, though, but that's just the nature of buying closer to a bottom.
So, that's my take. really incredible. They're going to be very, very detailed. We do have a price increase on Friday, going over 100 bucks per these. Remember some of the most popular ones right now, how to get paid more at your job, how to negotiate, how to speak and present with confidence, how to build your personal brand, , buy real estate this winter, .
These are some amazing courses here. Make sure to check these out. Thank you so much for watching, and folks, courses or my actively managed ETF, which you can .
Comments 0