저자: 미상 · 외국인
요약 보기
S&P500이 최근 4거래일 4.21% 하락하며 50일선 추세선 이탈 신호가 나왔다. 화자는 이전 기준에 따라 현금 비중을 늘리지 않았고 포트폴리오를 그대로 유지하기로 했다. 추세선 재시험 후 반등을 기대하며, 9월 18일 연준 회의에서 추가 금리 인하 시사 여부가 시장의 핵심 변수라고 본다. 포트폴리오 비중은 주식 98.16%, 현금 1.84%이며 연초 대비 수익률은 S&P500 14.03%, 포트폴리오 11.14%, Persian Square 1.96%다.
다듬은 글
today is Sunday September 8th and this is another update on my progress beating the S&P 500 along with Bill amman's Persian Square Holdings I do make these videos every Sunday and Tuesday so if you want to follow along hit that subscribe button and let's get into it since my last update I decided not to make any position changes to my portfolio so everything's going to be exactly the same so this is what the Spy chart currently looks like on the last update the S&P 500 had closed right here which was just below the all-time high and at the time everything was looking perfect the Spy price was above the 5day and the 15-day but then it completely reversed in the last four trading sessions it's seen a decline of 4.21% so at this point it's a complete opposite of where we were at the last update the Spy price is now below the 5day which is below the 15 the Market's definitely been sporadic since it reached its all-time high on July 16th after making those new all-time highs over the next couple of weeks the S&P 500 dropped over 8% and then it seemingly spent the next couple of weeks fully recovering and now it seems to be going down just as as fast as it was towards the middle of July I went ahead and zoomed in on the Spy chart I also changed the 15-day moving average to the 50-day moving average which is represented by this black line I talked about in the last update that when the 50-day moving average was approaching this trend line when the markets were making new all-time highs back in the middle of July it wasn't able to stay above it and gain any further momentum which was the same exact time that the market started to see its declines this right here is the moment that the 50-day moving average broke above this trend line during those days the market declined but not as much as it ultimately would so for situations like this moving forward once the 50-day moving average reaches the trend line that I think it's going to go through I'm going to keep a close eye on it and as soon as it seems like it might have a chance of retreating back downwards I'm going to put some of my portfolio back into Cash cuz by doing that I still would have saw this decline right here but I would have saved myself the second Decline and it seems that's exactly what's happening right now with the current 50-day moving average it came super close to hitting this trend line but it wasn't actually able to ever reach it so if I had use the strategy that I had just talked about on Thursday by market closed I should have put some of my portfolio back into Cash which would have at a minimum saved me Friday's declines and any possible further declines moving averages don't move that sporadically especially if they're longer like the 50-day moving average but you do at least always want to see them moving either up or down cuz if they're just moving sideways that means that they're losing momentum which is exactly what happened leading up to Thursday's close and then with Friday's declines it actually moved it to a slightly downward position so it wouldn't surprise me if it finished the cycle and ended up touching this trend line down here again since I missed my opportunity to put some of my portfolio Into Cash on Thursday I think it's best that I just keep holding everything that I have they say time spent in the market is better than trying just to time the market and if the 50-day moving average is going to retest this lower trend line before ultimately bouncing higher it shouldn't take that much more declines to get there if I thought that the market was actually going to go into a complete freef fall I would definitely put some of my portfolio into cash but I certainly don't think that's the case especially with drone power next fed meeting which is going to be Wednesday September 18th it's definitely safe to say that there's going to be a rate cut at that meeting but it's going to be important to listen to what he says about future rate Cuts cuz there's a possibility that what he says is that we're just going to have this one rate cut in September and we're not guaranteed another one or there's the possibility that he says we're going to get this rate cut in September and then he expects additional rate Cuts either by the end of this year or going into next year in which case that should drive the market a lot higher than what it is right now this is the first page of all my current positions which is showing 13 out of 17 my top five Holdings are Costco General Electric Apple Goldman Sachs and Amazon and those five make up 37.14% of my portfolio apple and Costco with a 17.35% gain are still my two biggest winners a lot of the mega cap stocks like Amazon Google Microsoft and even Nvidia have fallen quite a bit over the last couple of days C3 AI reported their earnings the other day and it opened up pretty big in the red but it was able to gain some of that back throughout the day so I feel confident that there's a possibility that it does recover I found that if a stock opens up in the red and then it continues to go further down throughout the day that's definitely not good at all but if a stock opens up big in the red and then spends the day slowly climbing back out of it that's definitely an encouraging sign and this is the second page showing my remaining four positions right now I have 98.16% of my portfolio invested with 1.84 sitting in cash since my last update the S&P 500 saw a decline of 4.21% my portfolio saw a loss of 5.24 and Persian Square had a decline of 6.29 which brings this year to date the S&P 500 has a gain of 14.03 my portfolio is at a gain of 11.14 and Persian Square on the year has a gain of 1.96 that's all I got for today I do make these videos every Sunday and Tuesday so if you want to follow along hit that subscribe button and I'll catch you on Tuesday
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