원문 보기
What if I told you that a company that was worth just $26 million in June is now worth $10 billion. This company has just nine employees and more shares of this stock are traded per day than Uber. It's called Bitmine Immersion Technologies or BMNR. And if you don't fully understand it, you need to because it's using the same playbook Michael Sailor used to 30x Micro Strategy stock and it's moving even faster than he did.
There's just one big difference. Bit mine is designed to acquire Ethereum and not Bitcoin. But the stock isn't up a,000% because of the concept alone. It's the guy behind it. Tom Lee is the analyst who called Bitcoin in 2017, making Wall Street pay attention to digital assets. As chairman of Bitmine, Tomley isn't just betting Ethereum will explode in price, but that it's the new digital oil powering the future of Wall Street and Silicon Valley.
And in this video, I'm going to explain to you how BMNR could be the most asymmetric investment opportunity since Nvidia. So, who is Tom Lee and why should you care about anything he has to say? As founder of Fundstat Global Adviserss in 2014, Tom built one of Wall Street's most respected independent research firms.
Being a frequent CNBC contributor, Tom has never been afraid to make his predictions public. His call on Tesla's rise from 200 a share to $1,200 made early investors fortunes. He predicted the V-shaped recovery post pandemic when most people thought there'd be a recession. And his Fund Strat ETF has outperformed the S&P by a,000 basis points this year alone.
But his biggest, boldest call was Bitcoin at just $1,000 in 2017. And making this prediction cost him. Wall Street thought that he'd lost his mind, promoting drug dealer money as the next institutional-grade investment. But Tom had done the homework that no one else bothered with. He studied millennials and realized they had owned Bitcoin in the same way that boomers owned gold.
His methodology was pure network analysis. 97% of Bitcoin's price movement came from wallet growth and activity per wallet. More users times more usage equals exponential price growth. His target seemed insane. 25,000 in 2022, and this year, Bitcoin hit 120,000. Those who stayed made 120x returns. And this explains why when Tom makes a call, institutional money follows.
With this new company, BMR, the whales have backed him, including ARCs Kathy Wood, Peter Teal, and even legendary value investor Bill Miller. These institutional titans are backing Tom's boldest call yet. That Ethereum is the digital oil that will power the future of the economy. And Tom Lee has even said that he thinks it can overtake Bitcoin.
But why? Tom Lee's Ethereum thesis for BMR is built on infrastructure adoption. Let's start by talking about Bitcoin, which is widely accepted to be digital gold. You don't do anything with it. You just store it and it appreciates in value. Ethereum, on the other hand, is very different. It's the world's leading smart contract blockchain, a decentralized computer that powers apps for finance, gaming, and identity.
That's why it's getting this digital oil comparison because it fuels real economic activity. So, let's put this in context. Bitcoin processes roughly 300,000 transactions daily. Ethereum processes a million a day and that's just on the base layer. A fun way to think of Ethereum is like a really busy highway.
Layer 2s like Arbitum and Optimism are extra lanes built on top. So they can handle more cars faster and cheaper while still connecting back to Ethereum's main road. When you account for these layer 2s, Ethereum actually processes more transactions than Visa. So sure, Ethereum is useful, but why does it have the potential to be bigger than Bitcoin by network value?
Well, Tomley's thesis comes down to three reasons. The first is stable coin dominance. Stable coins are digital dollars. They're tokens pegged one to one to the US dollar that move instantly across blockchains. Instead of waiting days and paying high fees for a bank wire, you could send millions in seconds for pennies.
I like to think of stable coins as making sending money like sending an email. Now 90% of stable coin transactions happen on Ethereum. Every international wire transfer, crossber payment, institutional settlement could be moving to stable coins. Circle USDC alone processes 5 trillion annually on Ethereum rails.
And it's not just crypto companies. JP Morgan launched JPMCoin to move billions between clients instantly. And even huge companies like Walmart are talking about launching their own stables. And one of the big catalysts for stable coins is the recent passing of the Genius Act, which basically creates federal rules for their use in the financial system.
So that's why adoption is expected to grow so much. The second reason for ETH's impending boom is AI. AI is evolving from just a tool into an autonomous decision maker. Instead of us clicking around websites, hitting buy or sell, AI agents are going to do that on our behalf. For that to work, they're going to need programmable money that can move at machine level speed.
That's where Ethereum comes in because its smart contracts allow AI agents not only to transfer funds between each other, but to actually use logic. Think of fleets of autonomous cars paying each other for road usage. Now, the third thing that's getting people excited about Ethereum is institutional tokenization.
Robin Hood CEO Vlad Tennv has called tokenization the biggest innovation in capital markets in over a decade. The company's already rolling out tokenized US stocks and ETFs to its European users. And under the hood, all of it runs on Ethereum's layer 2. Tokenization is kind of crazy to think about because it unlocks what traditional finance never could.
Stocks that trade 24/7 instead of closing at 4 p.m. instant settlement, fractional ownership, and global access to markets no matter where you live. But stocks are just one way to think about it. Black Rockck, for example, just passed 500 million in tokenized US treasuries. Franklin Templeton is issuing money market funds directly on Ethereum.
Real estate is even being fractionalized and sold on chain. So, with all these things considered, you might be able to see why Tomley is calling ETH the biggest macro trade over the next 10 to 15 years. But instead of telling people just to buy the asset directly, Tom Lee engineered something more powerful, and that is BMR.
Before we dive into Bitmine, I want to introduce you to today's sponsor, Mumu, a global trading app with over 26 million users around the world. Mumu's edge is in the powerful tools it offers to help retail investors trade and research smarter. So, here are my three favorite features. First, Mumu gives you access not only to American companies, but investments around the world.
For example, you can trade on the Hong Kong stock exchange and the Singapore exchange. Next, Mumu has some of the lowest trading costs of any brokerage for buying and selling over 40 cryptos alongside your stocks, options, and ETFs. And these fee savings could amount to hundreds of dollars. And when it comes to investment research, this is where Mumu really shines.
There's one feature in the app where you can actually see the stocks that some of the most legendary hedge funds are holding to help you find new investment ideas. And here's the most exciting part. For US users, Mumu is offering up to $1,000 of Nvidia stock if you make a qualified deposit. So, just head over to the link in my description or scan this QR code to claim your offer.
So, this whole concept of crypto treasuries was pioneered by Michael Sailor with Micro Strategy back in 2020. Micro Strategy, which just buys Bitcoin, has delivered 30x returns to investors since it started, while Bitcoin's price has only gone up 10x. So with BMR, it's taking that micro strategy playbook and applying it to Ethereum.
Now, the most important thing to understand about crypto treasuries is that they're valued at more than the assets they hold. And the difference between the valuation of the company and its assets is called MNAV or multiple to net asset value. Now, this is confusing for a lot of people because if all a company does is hold assets, why would it trade for more than that?
Well, there's a few reasons why BMNR is worth more as a company than the sum of all the Ethereum it holds. The first reason is that treasury companies have a lot of value to the financial ecosystem. It's a lot easier for an institution or even an individual to buy a stock instead of crypto directly.
So that accessibility is valued. BMR is also one of the most traded stocks in the world. It's in the top 10. So being able to buy and sell it quickly without major swings is really important and adds a lot of value as well. Now another reason for the premium is the concept of scarcity. If BMR becomes the largest holder of Ethereum, it becomes strategically important to the entire ecosystem.
Tom Lee takes this concept further and calls it a sovereign put. Say, for example, Goldman Sachs needs 10 billion of ETH exposure. They can't just buy it on the open market without sending prices to the moon. Instead, they'd approach BMR for an OTC deal. The same would happen if a government wanted to create a strategic Ethereum reserve.
BMR would become the liquidity provider. The third big reason for a premium is staking. And this is specific to Ethereum treasury companies. It's really what differentiates them from Bitcoin ones because Bitcoin treasuries can't monetize their reserves. They just have to hold them. With Ethereum treasuries, you can actually get a yield.
So with BMR, that's looking at around 3% annually, and they currently hold around 10 billion of Ethereum. So that's 300 million in annual income they're generating from this treasury business. And Tom Lee argues this is what makes Ethereum treasuries actually operating businesses. They're actually generating revenue.
Finally, there's a multiple awarded to velocity with these crypto treasuries. If NAV per share is a moving target that's rising quickly, investors pay a premium for that. Just like you'd pay a premium for a company that's growing earnings quickly. The speed at which BMR has been able to grow their NAV per share has been insane.
In just 20 days, they took it from $4 to $23. At the time of making this video, their NAV per share is $40. So, now that you understand the premium, let's talk about how that premium enables the mass accumulation of Ethereum. So, as long as BitMine stock trades above the value of the Ethereum it holds, it can sell new shares at that price and use the cash to buy more Ethereum, which then increases NAV per share.
If you still can't wrap your head around this, let's use some hypothetical numbers. Let's say there's a 100 total shares in BMR and it owns $1,000 of Ethereum total. Each share has a net asset value of $10 per share. Now, since investors put a premium on Bitline stock, it's trading at say $15 per share.
And this enables the company to sell stock using an ATM or at the market offering. So it sells 40 new shares into the market at $15 each. Now the company has just raised $600 to buy more Ethereum. So now BMR's total Ethereum is $1,600. And that divided by $140 shares is 11.4. That means each share of BMR is now worth $140 more Ethereum than it was before.
In other words, each person's slice of the pie got bigger. It creates this virtuous feedback loop. The higher the premium, the more capital Bitmine can raise. The more Ethereum they buy, the more NAV per share grows, which then justifies an even higher premium. Let's look at the real numbers, though.
I use this site called BMR.rocks, which was built by fans of the stock to track as closely as possible what the company's metrics are at any given time. So, at the time I'm making this video, BMR had 2.1 million ETH, a NAV per share of roughly $40, and its stock price was trading at around $60, which gives it an MNAV of 1.48.
48. That's only slightly under Micro Strategies at the time of making this video, which was about 1.55. So, BMR currently has about 1.8% of the global Ethereum supply, but their big ambitious goal is 5%. And with the way they're moving, they could hit that goal by January, which would give them about 25 billion of Ethereum at current prices on their balance sheet.
But now for the question you probably have in the back of your mind, which is, is this too good to be true? And before the next section, just a reminder guys to join my Discord server at the link in my description if you love looking for the next asymmetric stock. My server is 100% free and packed with powerful tools and resources like a bot that tracks insider trading on all of our favorite stocks.
Check it out at the link in my description. The skeptics on crypto treasuries might be just as loud as the supporters. And it's certainly true that leverage goes both ways. when something's going up and when something's going down. There have been some historical issues with crypto treasuries. So, let's go back and look at Grayscale Bitcoin Trust in 2022.
For years, it traded at a hefty premium to NAV. Investors were paying 20 to 100% above the actual value of the Bitcoin it held. The reason for its premium was simple. It was the only way for institutions and retirement accounts to get access to Bitcoin exposure. But once competition emerged and the supply of GBTC shares surged after lockups expired, the premium collapsed.
With no redemption mechanism, the trust swung into a massive discount, bottoming out at nearly 50% below NAF. What this meant was you lost money on GBTC stock while the price of Bitcoin remained flat. Micro Strategy also had a big scare around leverage risk. The company's convertible bonds and secured loans funded billions in additional Bitcoin purchases that turned Micro Strategy into a leveraged Bitcoin derivative.
When Bitcoin fell in 2021 to 2022, Micro Strategy briefly traded below NAV as markets pricing the risk that debt loads could force liquidations. Those who bought Micro Strategy at $400 in 2021 watched it fall to 120 while Bitcoin only drop from 60K to 30K. This was a cautionary tale and it's one of the big reasons crypto treasuries don't try and raise money with debt anymore.
They use this MNAV strategy to use purely equity financing. And that's what Tom Lee has made clear. He thinks that crypto treasuries can be safe as long as there's no exotic leverage behind the scenes. And he's emphasized that BMR's goal is to keep very clean balance sheet. So having no debt is a good thing.
And BMR has also talked about a billion dollar stock buyback program. So if the price of Bitmine ever fell below its NAV, the company could basically buy back shares, reduce the outstanding shares, and that would increase NAV per share as well. So while it's good that attention to historical issues around crypto treasuries are being brought into account with BMR strategy, it's just important to note that derivatives are always riskier than the underlying asset.
And we just can't forget that crypto treasury companies are extremely exposed. That could be to regulation. That could be to just huge swings in market value of the underlying asset as well as just overall sentiment on the market. But I think there's a way to think about this company that's different from any crypto treasury company before it.
Tom Lee has kind of a provocative analogy for cryptore companies and he's calling them the next Exxon Mobile. From 1990 to 2018, Exxon was consistently one of the five biggest companies in the S&P 500. Not because Wall Street loved its quarterly earnings per share, but because Exxon sat on massive proven oil reserves.
Those reserves guaranteed decades of future cash flow once drilled, refined, and sold. The market valued Exxon on the scale of its reserves. First, earnings were simply the monetization of that base. The stock isn't about mining revenue or staking ops in the short term. It's about these billions of dollars in ETH reserves the company is sitting on as a scarce resource.
Tomley thinks of building BMR like he's creating the world's largest oil company before the rise of the automobile. Just as Exxon represented strategic energy reserves in the old economy, BMR represents strategic digital reserves in the new one. Tom Le's made some insanely prophetic calls, but only time will tell on this one, which is definitely his boldest one yet.
But here's what we do know now. Bitmine is one of the most leveraged, ambitious bets that we've seen in the history of Wall Street. In this video, we talked about how stable coins could be one of the biggest catalysts driving Ethereum's price growth. And if you want to learn more about them, check out this video I made on Circle, which is basically making stable coins mainstream. It's a crazy story.







Comments 0