저자: Dylan · 외국인
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시장 하락 베팅을 유지하며 12월 FOMC 0.75%p 인상 시 급락(항복 이벤트) 가능성을 본다는 내용. [마이클 버리 트윗] 버리가 트윗을 삭제·재게시 반복한 사실과 직전 영상에서 키를 두고 논쟁한 일을 언급하며 가볍게 다룸. 본 영상의 핵심 분석과는 무관. [거시 지표] 신용카드 부채 9,300억 달러(전년比 15% 이상 증가, 20년래 최대 증가폭), 금리는 1990년대 중반 이후 최고 수준. BofA CEO Moynihan은 소비자 건강이 좋지 않다고 평가. [지표 결과] 미시간대 소비자신뢰지수 59.1(예상 53.3, 이전 56.8), PPI 예상 상회, 고용보고서 소폭 양호(임금 상승). 시장은 PPI 상회에 부정적으로 반응. [연준 전망] 파월은 연착륙 가능성을 언급하고 0.75%p 인상이 끝날 수 있다고 시사. 12월 14일 FOMC는 0.5%p 인상이 시장 컨센서스(약 70~80%). [기술적 분석·포지션] 진행자는 S&P500 기준 200일 이동평균 아래에 있으며 숏 포지션 유지 중이라고 밝힘. 추세선 이탈은 없었음. 12월 0.75%p 인상 시 대폭락 가능. [결론] 시장이 0.5%p를 확신하는 만큼 0.75%p가 나오면 급락 가능성이 크다는 것이 진행자의 핵심 시나리오. 단, 진행자 스스로 '누구도 모른다'고 유보.
다듬은 글
hey welcome back to Tuesday guys trading stocks I'm Dylan and I'm Vinnie and today we're going to recap some of Michael burry's recent tweets and we're going to talk about how this week is a very very crucial time particularly for some of our bearish bets on the market we're going to look a little technical analysis and recap some of the news related to that and news upcoming this week this is it dudes two stupid guys three Stokes all right all right well first of all he didn't actually say this is it we're saying this is it okay uh this is kind of funny I'm saying this is it this pretty much I think confirms what we were you know Michael Berry does watch our Channel you know we talked about the 1.7 meter thing in our last video about him not being short and he came out on Twitter and said actually I'm six feet tall not 1.7 meters which was only five foot seven so he's definitely a fan you know probably down in the comment section below what I'm just saying yeah if if you watch our last video you'll know what we're talking about all right yeah so you know he had this classic kind of trend of deleting his Twitter and reopening his Twitter deleting his tweets he's always been kind of going back and forth on that and he kind of finally explained why he has been doing that for a while which was kind of interesting he talked about how he does it every time he's been canceled personally or professionally which I thought was interesting um you know he's definitely a very vocal politically kind of uh so what I want to say divisive person so it makes sense that he gets a lot of criticism but like it's kind of a unusual backlash I guess to just go ahead and catch your Twitter makes no sense to restate it two days later yeah I don't know how much that that's actually accurate he just gets angry deletes it and brings it back and I mean yeah how long did he delete his two two days two days and before that he had actually put this other tweet out here while saying oh I won't delete anything going forward that you know Elon has my trust and it was funny because this other Twitter account Michael Berry archive which has been a great resource for us we go back and get his old tweets there all the time um it had put up this Twitter post with over 10 000 votes on it and saying 93 of people are like no no keep this page alive like don't trust what he said yeah they were right pretty outrageous because two days later downstairs all right exactly let's get into the uh the meat here A bunch of stuff happened in the market all right this is a little bit old all this is saying is that credit card debt hit 930 billion that climb more than 15 percent uh from year earlier which is the largest annual jump in 20 years not a lot of great stuff happened 20 years ago um well I guess slightly less but um High inflation and high interest rates are making it harder than ever to pay down a credit card debt the real problem that credit card debt is the why this is I guess I should say why this is more important than ever before is because we have not had interest rates this high since the 90s since the mid 90s all right for where we're going so the amount of credit card debt is not great along with some other factors next slide please yeah so Brian Moynihan the CEO I don't know if you saw this of uh Bank of America account this week and talked about that too you know talking about the health of the consumer being poor yeah you know Babel's internal metrics where he can really see how people's making Council tracking and where the expenses are going and he did not have encouraging things to say so the health of the consumer is poor but consumer sentiment improved to 59.1 from 56.8 they're expecting expecting 53.3 from the University of Michigan's consumer confidence index now I know what you're saying who cares uh valid question and I'll get to that but the producer's price index also showed higher than expected wholesale prices and the jobs report slightly better than expected I mean kind of in line slightly better we hired a greater number of workers and a wages increased now the weird thing I I day trade I've been uh pretty open about that I know it's kind of frowned upon um when these numbers come out last year before anyone cared about 90 of this because the market was seemingly going to go up for the next hundred years um there wasn't like a lot of volume no one cared like even day trading on like a one or two minute candle there wouldn't there wouldn't be a substantial volume Spike now any number that comes out with a even minor relevance to the number has an effect on the market like the University of Phoenix could start like a metric of some sort that doesn't matter and the stock market will pay attention to it so we're at a point where it's it's like we're on a Tipping Point of volatility so yeah it's really really important because Vinnie what did uh my man Powell say just like quick summary uh so he he did actually come out and be relatively kind of accommodative if you will and saying that he thinks that a soft Landing may be achievable that we may not have a dramatic loss in jobs at compared with prior kind of economic downturns because we lost a significant portion of the labor market um you know but this wage inflation is seriously a concern right if wages are still going up that's more buying power in people's hands people demanding more wages therefore the continuous inflation and recycle which is why when that PPI number came out and was a little bit elevated still uh compared to what was expectations the market did not like that and responded relatively negatively to that news right now he also said that there's a chance that the 0.75 rate hikes are over okay yes and he said it could not it will it could end as soon as this December now these are the two biggest dates this is why we have the this is it on the thumbnail okay Wednesday December 14th Market expects the FED to raise 0.5 percent okay now he was saying it is due to certain metrics he was not saying it's definitely going to be 0.5 but you can pretty much guarantee one of those certain metrics is the day before on the 13th CPI data for the November um as well as the job support that was released that showed and we're still doing fine job wise okay even though you have the headlines of like meta and Amazon and Twitter laying off people people are still getting jobs all right yeah it's incredibly incredibly important this next week is going to be the week you want to look at I have the spine here I am still short quite short uncomfortably short if I'm being honest we did not break the trend line so I I stayed in we came right down below this 200 average that's this Gray Line right here if Jerome Powell does a 0.75 hike okay which if you type in right now to Google how much are they going to hike in December 14th every single site is 0.5 all of them everyone thinks this is a done deal 70 80 someone that ballpark the last time I saw it and like there's still an option 3.75 and like the market is not anticipating at this point if he does that you guys just get a big red candle that I suspect but you know I'm just a stupid guy well so I mean so he he talked uh beginning December right here saying that how you know hey we we could be good to go here and it brought us all the way from freaking 394 to four what is that 407 407.
so if we have a 0.75 rate hike that could be the capitulation event it's very possible where we just crash all hell broke loose Dylan's very happy sorry guys um but it is definitely something to look at we're still trending kind of in this trend line here I'm still thinking that we're going lower but who knows anything else no no I suspect the same thing uh just you know we'll see what happens this week but uh yeah the market is so certain it's getting that 0.5 right now that uh I'm less convinced you know that I'm I'm sorry you know so if we get that 0.75 it could be a major Market down decks we'll see yeah yeah great day for Dylan all right guys have a good one catch the next one
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