저자: EverythingMoney진행자Paul · 외국인
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엔비디아가 실적 발표 후 시간외 급등락을 보이는 가운데, 진행자는 매출 135억 달러(예상 110억) 등 어닝 서프라이즈에도 불구하고 주가수익비율 약 45배 매출 기준 고평가를 근거로 공매도 포지션을 유지한다고 밝힘. 자사주 매입과 연간 상승률(약 241%)을 짚으며 성장률 지속 여부에 의문을 제기함. 가이던스 여부를 주목하며 향후 조정 가능성을 경계함.
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all right guys Nvidia has crushed it they were up to 508 now they're at 505. we don't have the exact numbers and what they reported but it has hit 500 the question is we'll stay there nvidia's been a big hype stock lately it's oh my now it's down to 484. so this is the thing I just said it before we got on in the first five minutes that the reports happened there's a lot of volatility it could Skyrocket now we're at 492.
the other thing is I think this is going to be a big Guidance play I think at the end of the day they're gonna have their call at five o'clock or 5 30 whenever they have it and if they don't guide well it's going to be a problem because this company is built on a lot of momentum and a lot of Hope for the future Castles in the Sky and that's what we're here to discuss Mo and I are going to go through their actual earnings release modes that come out yet we have it right here we have it we're going to go through that um we're gonna go through a quick stock analyzer um tool at the end we're going to talk about a couple Bull and Bear cases for NVIDIA uh Bull and Bear cases I think are just for the basically the company itself because I don't know how you justify 40 what are we at now we're at 45 times sales before facting in there after hour move right now um I am short Nvidia do not shorten video along with me it is very risky I am down a lot of money I'm okay with it because my short goes until June or December of 2025 and I just feel like this is a company that's been a lot of hype it is up year to date 230 percent before factoring in this after hours move which we're at 500 again I mean we've gone from 472 to 505 down to 482.
now we're at 500. um all right so let's take a look at Nvidia revenue of 13.51 they crushed it versus expectations of 11.04 earnings per share 2.70 cents versus two dollars and seven cents so they crushed it they absolutely crushed it 13.5 billion dollars in Revenue they absolutely crushed it guys holy cow yeah and I I don't know guys we're gonna go over this and it's gonna you're looking at this going how is Paul shorting this company well I believe that and there is too high a price to pay for even a great thing but most people look at a stock and think it's a ticker going up and down and that works in trading but when it comes to buying a business when you buy a stock you're buying a piece of a business would you pay 45 times plus this so what does that make it now it's up six percent so it makes this 47 times Revenue if your neighbor next door has a flower shop that makes a million dollars a year in revenue and it has a lot of potential would you pay 47 47 million dollars for that flower shop I don't care what it makes I don't care if it's half profit that's 94 times profit guys this is a tough one for me and I know in the short run I look really stupid here I get it play it on right now I don't I'm not gonna I'm not gonna fight that lay it on but remember we said the same thing about Tesla when it was 404 or 414 and look at it now it's 250 and we think it has a lot more to go down this is a very hyped up Market oh what's up they are buying back shares oh my Lord they returned 3.38 billion in shareholders in the form of 7.5 million shares repurchased I'm gonna say this the only thing dumber than nvidia's valuation is buying back shares if you're an owner of the company and on Monday they approved an additional 25 billion dollars they are taking money and just pissing it down the toilet they are investing the money at 47 times this thing's up nine percent now Mo 513 a share somebody go pray for my brother look at their gross margins increase wow they made it two dollars and seventy cents per share how many shares out today do they have right now they currently have 2.5 billion shares outstanding they made what is that seven billion dollars this last quarter in price is that right is that correct how is that even possible how do they make seven billion dollars on 13.5 with a gross margin of 56 percent they have overhead in there SG a expenses how much what did you say the gross margin is 56 percent so they're showing here this is their summary gross margin of 70 well that's how you make 50 the bottom line that income 6.2 billion dollars two billion so they replicate this every quarter they're at 25 billion in profit for the year and the company's currently at one it's 40 times profit so their revenue year over year is up 101 net income is of 843 operating income up 1263 margins up 26.6 and what you see and what most people out there see is boom boom boom boom boom and all I sit there and say is so the question is are we paying too much for the company the company is amazing but you have to separate the company from the stock price you have to separate those two things Amazon was an amazing company is an amazing company it fell 96 the tech tech drop but it was still a growing amazing company right what else you got Mo Gaming revenue was about two and a half billion dollars up 11 from the previous quarter and 22 from a year ago and now it's back to a 500.
come on yeah now it's back to 500. so let's see if they put any guidance guys trillion dollar companies after hours fluctuating ten percent eight percent so their phone call is at 5 PM that'll be telling I don't see any guidance yeah I think they're gonna guide written guidance oh yeah I was gonna say they'll guide in their call all right so guys let's give an example here so right now I'm gonna add seven percent to 45 um what is that 10 is 4.5 so seven percent is call it three three and a half so they're selling about 48 times Revenue right now let's go look at a company like Microsoft which we think is overpriced not not as much as Nvidia it's 11 and a half times sales 11 and a half time sales and Nvidia just bragged about 70 gross margin Microsoft 69 um and guess what Nvidia what was nvidia's net income margin um uh net income I want to say the margin is the gross margins no no the net income margin so net income was 6.2 billion on what Revenue 13.1 13.507 okay that's pretty high 6.2 to be 13.5 that's 46 so they beat Microsoft in the bottom line margin big time right but eleven and a half times sales let's look at Apple Apple behemoth Apple this company that is ingrained in everybody's life 7.4 times sales 7.4 time sales they generated 100 billion I look at the saying price of sales is a great way of comparing companies within an industry within gross Market I always like to look and say well let me compare them to another company with this gross margin let me compare them with another company with this net income and remember gross margin is for every extra unit you sell how much that's profit how much that goes to the bottom line to pay taxes with a company like Nvidia at 70 that's a big number there's a lot of demand for them they could hold really good margins they might be able to say if you want this you got to pay I don't blame them I'd be doing the same thing oh look at this tweet Nvidia feels a little undervalued do you guys agree I'm just scowling Twitter right now like seeing the comments listen you gotta remember whenever there's a a very bullish sentiment for things you're not going to find people who are bullish on that company saying you know I think it's overvalued I mean it's very rare it's very very rare and that's okay and guess what we could be wrong if this company grows 50 a year for the next 10 years this is a debt this is a deal probably I haven't run the numbers but hell I mean it makes sense doesn't it 25 billion this year then 37 and a half and then 55 billion I mean before you know it you're you're killing it of course 15 a year for 10 years but the question is is that realistic let's look at our eight pillars on uh on Nvidia as I lick my wounds well guys this is this is gone they're gonna start buying back they're here and by the way 3.8 billion dollars that's point three percent of the value of the company God it's such a waste of money mo yeah why bother no it's not even that it's just a ways like guys when when companies buy back expensive shares they are wasting your money as an investor if you haven't money invested in video the money in their bank account you have a claim to you own part of that bank account when they're buying back their shares at 47 times Revenue at 250 times profit all they're doing there is saying we're investing in a company at 250 times profit yeah and they should just be investing in themselves at this point look at their roic of course they should keep driving up just keep driving everything higher this says they get 18 return on the money that they invest in their in themselves keep doing it don't stop that keep going but the share buyback has become this like it's and I think that's why they did it it's because they've become this thing and people are like oh yeah let's let's do it it gets it attracts people so we're back at the 508 Mo okay um what do analysts say we're at so I wonder what the new PE is going to be the new five-year PE is going to be because the current one year p is 243.
the five-year PE is 222. and the five-year price of your cash flow is 230. sounds a lot like Tesla back in the day but as you remember Tesla was Rip Roar I mean they were just growing like crazy just like Nvidia could do so this could last a long time this stock could keep going up for a very very long time but it's been pretty parabolic for the last where was it at the start of the year year to date it was at 100 call it 140 it opened at 148 in the first trading day of the year it's now at 505.
505 divided by 148 minus one 241 percent it's up 241 year-to-date including after hours today for a trillion dollar company now trillion dollar company for those who don't know 241 isn't 2.4 times it is 3.4 times it is up three and a half times from its original price that's incredible for a trillion dollar company if it was a billion dollar company that was growing like crazy I'd say okay I mean we looked we looked at the book hundred Baggers right and one of the things they said was hey some of these companies that are smaller are going to be overpriced because they can Compound on themselves they take that high return they can get by investing themselves and they go with that let's see what analyst estimates are for they haven't updated this thing in a long time okay so analysts for the next four or five years they're expecting well they're expecting 8 10 for the year ending march 2024 going all the way to 13 bucks but look at this Mom this is interesting yep 14 and then down and when you look at the what year was that where it dropped um between 26 and 27 okay see something interesting on the revenue side as well yeah I don't know that's very interesting man this is this is incredible this is absolutely incredible all right let's go to our stock analyzer tool I'm gonna do it throw some numbers in there okay Mo I need your help here okay because remember they can't grow forever at fifty percent can't they now I'm gonna do I'm 10 seems stupidly low but you never know 10 20 30.
yeah profit margin they've crushed it let's call it 20 30 40 free cash flow margin 20 30 40 PE oh this is where we're gonna guys remember the the stock market average for for PE and price of free cash flow is 15. and we do believe in paying more for better quality businesses with a high roic with a lot of growth which Nvidia does have so like 18 24 and 30.
oh people are gonna listen you guys gonna butcher us and I get it but 240 is insane you can't expect that forever you can't expect that forever well let's go 20 25 and 30. okay this is nuts desire return let's just go ten percent let's do it because so here's what we're doing average we're sitting there saying listen let's say you want to pay what the market should bear for this a 10 return I'm not putting any margin of safety in this and I'm assuming all my assumptions here and I know you're gonna sit there and say let's do it thirty percent thirty percent growth for 10 years would take Revenue up 14 times essentially so if they're on Pace this year to do if they did this quarter over and over again it would be 13 and a half times four is 55 billion times 15.
they'd be at 700 billion dollar Revenue business in 10 years 700 billion 700 billion they did 13.5 billion this last quarter they did seven billion dollars the previous quarter so we're going to 700 billion 100 times more than what it did last quarter I'm gonna hit the analyze button okay well it makes sense at the highest numbers yep lowest numbers 60 somewhere in the middle 230.
all right I I don't know and somebody might sit there and say Paul you're too conservative yeah maybe I am maybe I am I don't know all I know is I look at this and think to myself man this is a tough one these are these are I'm gonna go ahead and make a statement okay Mark this calendar right now I want everybody to tell me how stupid I am we're going to look at Nvidia 10 20 years from now and it might not exceed the the maximum price it hits in this bull market it'll be like the Intel Cisco Mike I mean those companies back in 2000 that have still yet to hit their all-time highs all right these are really I don't did Intel Michael you'd remember did Intel ever hit 45 times Revenue back in 2000 we can look so let's see but the thing is everybody here watching now is somebody who doesn't remember Intel they're gonna say oh Intel's dead because now it's considered dead and this is this is crazy guys look at it literally to justify today's price it has to grow basically 25 for 10 years let's do 25 percent oh forget about competition Michael that's that's egregious there is no competition there won't be competition to Nvidia are you crazy competition who's a server who's this old fart dinosaur over here when you're investing you don't think about those things laughs I still remember people telling me there's gonna be no competition of Tesla I still remember that and Tesla has definitely led the way I get that but I look at it going yeah market watch Nvidia stock scores after hours AI chip giant reports record results all right it's crazy all right it stabilized a little bit over 500.
the call is going to be very indicative if they increase guidance that's the way it is yeah so guys if you think of a nut job right below if you think I'm brilliant right below if you whatever you want to do right below subscribe to the channel this is NVIDIA we're going to have another follow-up report uh later this week we're going to do a little more thorough analysis in a video look at Bull and Bear cases some more analyst estimates get more in the nitty-gritty so watch for that video make sure you subscribe and mark the notifications that way you can get that and you can see how insane I am for still being short in video thanks guys take care thank you
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