저자: 미상 · 외국인
요약 보기
한줄결론: 찰리 멍거 포트폴리오(Daily Journal) 상위 배당주 BAC·WFC·USB를 가치평가 모델로 분석하며, BAC·WFC는 저평가 또는 적정, USB는 고평가 가능성을 언급함. [보유 종목 개요] Daily Journal 포트폴리오 1위는 BAC(뱅크오브아메리카), 주가 35.25달러, 약 230만주(약 8천만달러), 1년간 약 27.89% 하락, 최근 1개월 약 5.46% 상승. 2위 WFC(웰스파고): 주가 44.27달러, 약 150만주(약 7천만달러), 1년간 약 21.5% 하락, 1개월 약 1.65% 상승. 3위 USB(US Bancorp): 주가 47.25달러, 약 14만주(약 650만달러), 1년간 약 25.23% 하락, 1개월 약 5.29% 상승. [BAC 밸류에이션] 배당 88센트, 배당수익률 약 2.5%, 배당성향 26.8%, 애널리스트 목표가 40.56달러, 베타 약 1.39. 그레이엄 공식 적정가 40.53달러, 주가 대비 P/TBV 1.65배(역사적 수준과 유사해 적정가치로 해석), 동종 은행 PER 기반 37.22달러, 배당할인모델(성장률 6.25%, 할인율 8.5%) 41.56달러. 종합 내재가치 약 39.77달러, 현재가 35.24달러. 10% 안전마진 적용 매수가 35.79달러로 지금이 매수 고려 시점이라는 판단, 20% 안전마진 적용 시 31.82달러. [WFC 밸류에이션] 배당 1.20달러, 배당수익률 약 2.71%, 배당성향 25.8%, 목표가 약 53.43달러, 기관보유 74.6%, 베타 1.18. 그레이엄 적정가 49.38달러(현재가 소폭 상회), P/TBV 1.28배로 역사적 대비 저평가 가능성, 동종 PER 기반 44.72달러, 배당할인모델 50.88달러. 종합 내재가치 약 48.34달러, 10% 안전마진 매수가 약 43.50달러(아직 매수구간 아님), 20% 안전마진 38.67달러. 과거 1년간 안전마진 확보 진입 기회가 있었다고 언급. [USB 밸류에이션] 배당 1.92달러, 배당수익률 4% 이상, 배당성향 43.9%, 목표가 약 52.24달러, 기관보유 74.1%, 베타 약 1. 그레이엄 적정가 45.47달러(현재가 소폭 하회), P/TBV 2.35배로 최근 수년 수준과 유사, 동종 PER 기반 45.75달러, 배당할인모델 42.40달러. 종합 내재가치 약 44.54달러(현재가 소폭 하회). 10% 안전마진 매수가 약 40.9달러 수준, 20% 안전마진 약 35.63달러 수준으로 계산되어 현재는 매수 시점이 아니라고 판단. 과거 1년간 안전마진 진입 기회가 있었다고 언급. [결론 및 리스크] 세 종목 모두 최근 1년간 크게 하락했으나 배당수익률과 낮은 배당성향이 강점으로 제시됨. 진행자는 구체적 매수 추천보다는 안전마진 원칙에 따른 진입 기회 탐색을 강조. 시장 사이클, 은행주 베타, 배당 정책 변화 등은 명시적으로 리스크 요인으로 다루지 않음. 출연자 전망은 특정 방향 예측 없이 가치평가 결과 중심.
다듬은 글
Charlie Munger is best known as Warren Buffett's longtime business partner and vice chairman of Berkshire Hathaway . He is also a highly respected investor with his own philosophy that emphasizes the importance of understanding and applying fundamental principles in investing. Munger is a passionate advocate for diversification and the value of learning from different disciplines.
He's also a firm believer in the power of compound interest and the importance of patience in investing, so it's no surprise that Charlie Munger loves dividend stocks. In this video, we look at the three best dividend stocks in the Daily Journal—the investment portfolio managed by Munger. If you would like to download the spreadsheets used to analyze these stocks, you can go to my Patreon page using the link in the description.
The first and largest asset in the Daily Journal Corporation portfolio is shares of Bank of America, ticker BAC. They are currently trading at $35.25 per share. In this fund, they own over 2.3 million shares of Bank of America worth over $80 million. We see that Bank of America has fallen by about 27.89% over the past year , and has risen by about 5.46% over the past month.
So, let's move on to my stock valuation table. Enter the Bank of America ticker and press Enter. As always, all data will be downloaded automatically. We see a 10- year chart. We've seen a pretty significant decline in their share price over the last year . If we look at the dividend data , we see that they pay out 88 cents per share, which currently gives a dividend yield of around 2.5 % with a low payout ratio of just 26.8%.
Below we see that analysts are predicting a price of $40.56 per share, but the beta is around 1.39. So there is usually a little more volatility with this stock. Let's move on to our first estimate— Graham's method. I'll zoom in and go here. We see the formula that Benjamin Graham developed to calculate intrinsic value .
We will substitute these variables: earnings per share, growth rate forecast, and average yield on AAA corporate bonds. Having done this, we divide by Y, which is the current yield on AAA corporate bonds at the time the video was recorded. It is 4.46. And we get an intrinsic value of $40.53 per share, which, as we just noted, is very close to the current analyst target price.
Now let's move on to our historical price- to-tangible book value ratio. Essentially, we input stock price data from the last decade and look at the tangible book value per share. This gives us the historical price- to-tangible book value ratio for that period. At the current price and current tangible book value per share, we see that the current ratio is 1.65.
If we look at the historical data, we see that it's about here, which is consistent with the figures for the last five to six years. Perhaps this indicates that it is currently trading at fair value. Moving on to valuation by multiples, we will take companies that are structurally similar to Bank of America and see how the market currently values them using the price /earnings multiple.
So, we take companies like JP Morgan and Wells Fargo, take their stock price and divide by their earnings per share to get this multiplier. We then take the average price/ earnings multiple and multiply it by Bank of America's earnings per share to get an intrinsic value of $37.22 per share. Whenever we do a valuation by multiples for bank stocks, I usually look at the return on assets (ROA) analysis to make sure they are relatively similar.
We see that Bank of America has this figure slightly lower than its competitors, which means that it could be argued that it is fair for Bank of America to trade at a slightly lower average price/earnings multiple. The last valuation model we will consider is the dividend discount model. Essentially, I enter quarterly dividend data to see how much the company pays out each year.
We also see an annual dividend growth rate for Bank of America. Over the past few years, their average growth rate has been around 10.36%. Going forward, I predict a growth rate of 6.25% and a discount rate of 8.5%, which gives us a dividend discount price per share of $41.56. So, by going to the results tab, we see all the evaluation models we used.
Graham's model—40.53, multipliers—37.22, and dividend discounting model—41.56. We also obtained a current price- to-book value ratio of tangible assets of 1.65, which means it is close to fair value. So, that gives us an intrinsic value of $39.77 per share. The current market price of this company is around $35.24.
Let's say you want to be aggressive in your investments and apply a 10% safety margin. Based on this, your acceptable purchase price is $35.79 per share, which means now is a good time to consider buying. If you are a bit more conservative and apply a 20% safety margin, your acceptable purchase price for this company is around $31.82.
Let's move on to the next asset. Daily Journal Corporation's second largest asset is Wells Fargo, ticker WFC, which is currently trading at $44.27 per share. The company owns over 1.5 million shares, totaling over $70 million. We see that Wells Fargo shares have fallen by about 21.5 % over the past year.
And over the past month, as in the case of Bank of America, they have shown good growth. They grew by about 1.65%. Let's move on to our stock valuation table . As always, depending on what we enter here, we will be able to retrieve our data. So, we'll enter WFC for Wells Fargo and it'll all load. We are currently looking at a 1,000- day shift.
We see significant growth, a small decline, but not as sharp as Bank of America. If we look at the dividend data, we see that they are currently paying $1.20 per share, which gives them a decent initial dividend yield for a bank stock of around 2.71% and a nice low payout ratio of just 25.8. If we go lower, we see that analysts currently have a price target of around $53.43.
Institutional ownership is at an acceptable level of around 74.6%, and the beta coefficient is 1.18. This essentially means that we will see a little more volatility than usual with this company. Now let's move on to Graham's assessment. And again, we'll plug these variables into the formula that Benjamin Graham gave us right here.
So, we have earnings per share, growth rate forecasts, and the current yield on AAA-rated corporate bonds. After we factor all of this in, we get an intrinsic value of $49.38 per share, which is slightly above the current market price. Now let's move on to our historical price to book value of tangible assets .
Again, I'll zoom out and we'll see that after entering all the data, the current price- to-tangible book value ratio is 1.28, which is well below historical performance, meaning the company may be undervalued, which is a good sign. Now let's move on to the evaluation by multipliers . Again, you see this is a company similar to Bank of America.
So, here we have similar comparative figures again. We take the average price- to-earnings ratio, multiply it by Wells Fargo's earnings per share, and get an intrinsic value of $44.72 per share, which again is pretty close to the current market price, as we see here . Looking at the return on assets (ROA) analysis, we see the same companies we just looked at.
Therefore, the ROA indicators are relatively similar. It seems that at Wells Fargo they are currently slightly higher than at competitors. Now let's move on to our dividend discounting model. Again , the point of this model is that we can value a company based on how much it pays in dividends and how much those dividends grow.
So, after entering data on dividend payments, we see that their growth rates have been quite volatile recently. This is because the company recently cut its dividend payout, but they have been increasing it quite rapidly since then . Therefore, the growth rate here is somewhat distorted due to a huge drop in one of the years.
However, moving forward, I am projecting a dividend growth rate of around 6% and a discount rate of 8.5%, giving us a dividend discount model price per share of $50.88. Going to the results tab, we see the intrinsic value at around $48.34. and our current price- to-tangible book value ratio indicated a possible slight undervaluation.
So, when applying a 10% margin of safety, we see that the acceptable purchase price for this company is around $43.50 per share, meaning it is not quite in the buy zone yet. Let's say we apply a 20% safety margin. Based on this, our acceptable purchase price is $38.67. per share. Now, moving on to Seeking Alpha, it's important to remember that while the stock is not exactly in a buy zone right now, if you look at the past year, you can see that there were definitely opportunities to enter with a margin of safety.
Let's move on to our final company. And the third-largest dividend company owned by the Daily Journal is US Bancorp, ticker USB. It is currently trading at $47.25 per share. They own about 140,000 shares, which is approximately $6.5 million in value. And we see that they have fallen by about 25.23% over the past year.
And over the last month, they have grown by approximately 5.29%. Now, if we go to my stock valuation table and enter the ticker, one of the things we definitely need to look at is the initial dividend yield. It is now over 4%, the dividend payout is $1.92, and the payout ratio is only 43.9%. So , great initial dividend yield for this company.
Analysts currently set a price target of around $52.24. Institutional ownership is around 74.1% , and beta is approaching 1. So volatility will be quite close to the market. Now let's move on to our first estimate, which will be the Graham estimate. And again we will introduce these variables. One thing you'll notice is that this company has a slightly lower growth rate forecast.
Everything else remains almost the same. We see our earnings per share, our current yield on AAA corporate bonds. So, after we input all of this, we get an intrinsic value of $45.47 per share, which is slightly below the current market price. Now, looking at our historical price-to- tangible book value ratio, we'll zoom out a bit .
We see that the current price to tangible book value ratio is around 2.35, which is pretty close to the level of the last few years, as we see here. Now, moving on to valuation by multipliers , we see the peer companies that we use. The price/ earnings ratio for these companies averages around 10.91.
And if we go back to our stock screener, we see that the price/ earnings ratio for USB is around 11.27 , which would result in a slightly lower intrinsic value. So, we get an intrinsic value of $45.75 per share. And you can see this when we look at our return on assets (ROA) analysis, because USB has a slightly lower ROA than other comparable companies.
Now, moving on to our dividend discounting model, I'll zoom back a little bit . Again, as always, I have introduced quarterly dividend payments so we can see how much they pay out each year. We see our year-on-year growth rates averaging around 6.85%. Moving forward, I'm projecting a growth rate of around 3.8, a discount rate of 8.5, which gives us a dividend discount model share price of $42.40.
So when we go to our output tab, we see all our estimates: Ham's 45, multipliers 45, dividend discount model 42, and the current price to tangible book value ratio is 2.35. This gives us an intrinsic value of $ 44.54 per share, which is slightly below the current market price. Let's say we apply a 10% margin of safety.
Based on this, an acceptable purchase price for this company is around $409. If we were to apply a 20% margin of safety, let's fix that. Here you can see that our acceptable purchase price would be around $3,563, which means that now is not the time to consider buying this company. Now, if we go back to Seeking Alpha, as with the previous company, we see that there were opportunities to enter with a decent margin of safety.
So, you need to keep an eye out for such opportunities. That's all. These are the three largest assets in the Daily Journal Corporation dividend portfolio. Let us know in the comments what you think about these companies, whether you plan to buy them, or if you already own them. If you want to download this spreadsheet, you can go to my Patreon page using the link in the description.
So, that's it, thank you for watching and please don't forget to like and subscribe.
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