저자: Kevin · 외국인
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시장 급락 후 반등 국면에서 Kevin은 과거 3월 저점 매수와 마진 축소 전략을 설명. 향후 3개월간 3~4월 발표 CPI 수치(전년비 상승)가 높게 나와 인플레이션 공포로 재차 조정이 올 수 있다고 주장. 다만 실제 조정 시점은 예측 불가하며, 하락 시 매수 전략을 제시. 마진을 20% 이하로 낮추는 것이 목표.
다듬은 글
hey everyone it's prophet kevin okay no i'm kidding the only reason i'm saying that is because actually you all the audience has mentioned this but you all have mentioned that in this video right here in the last five minutes apparently i basically nailed it i said that i was investing heavily into the market for two reasons last week one i thought the worst was last week and i published this on march 4th i talked about how on march 4th i think maybe we're going to have another red friday maybe the market will open up really bloody but i think it'll start recovering then we're going to see the effects of the weekend effect kick in where people start taking account of what happened and go oh man things are cheap institutional investors are going to come over and then the stimulus is going to pass and then maybe the fed will loosen uh which the fed hasn't loosened yet but stimulus passed the weekend effect took place and what happened this week well not only did we nailed it about friday but we were right about the weekend effects coming into play and the stimulus coming into play and what do we have tues or tuesday wednesday and thursday we're all substantially up now great video i mean watch it if you haven't yet because you will see on in during the bloodiest time what i was saying why i was buying and i think it's a good like psychological lesson to see like okay this is this is what i was thinking of when it was bad so what am i thinking of now and this is not to say that what i'm about to say is right because i don't know i think i got lucky there i was just putting all of my reading and all the data and my belief about how the psychology of money works together and that was the conclusion i came up with last week it's kind of the same reason why when we were in march of 2020 i refinanced all my properties and took all that money and plowed into the stock market peak fear it's also why right before this crash i sold off one one and a half million dollars worth of stocks to lower margin like i do these things because of what i see and here in the economy and this is why hopefully you you appreciate the channel and you subscribe so what do i think going forward obviously the market is recovering very strongly right now isn't it possible that the market is going to crash again here's my take this week we also not only did that the market sort of and i know not everybody's supportive of this but yes the market sort of got blessed with the stimulus package but the market also got blessed with better unemployment data we got lower inflation data than expected which is something that i've talked about a million times on this channel about how i think long run inflation is just not going to be as high as people think it's going to be i think the market is overvaluing how bad inflation is going to be and we got the european central bank saying they're just going to buy a bunch more bonds to try to do whatever they can to control yields to bring yields down so we got a lot of really good catalysts those catalysts we got the catalyst we were expecting like the stimulus and the weekends catalyst we got those catalysts plus some unemployment cpi the ecb those are good okay but so this is good you know the market's obviously going up this is wonderful what does this mean going forward we're going to see another crash so my take is that over the next three months we are going to get really nasty inflation data but it's going to be what i call fugazi inflation data and that is because we're going to be comparing march 2020 to march 2021 in april it's a year late when they do i'm sorry it's a month late when they do the measurement we are going to see very high inflation for the readings for march april and may which come out april may june so next month in april we're going to get march's cpi down we're gonna go oh dang what 2.4 percent inflation here over here and then the next month thereafter in may we're going to look at what april data 3.4 inflation year over year here it is we knew it we knew there was inflation the data is finally catching up the problem is this is going to be temporary this is not going to be as fed chair jerome powell says persistent inflation and i don't want to have you know the point of this isn't to have a debate over inflation this video is not an inflation video but when you know that and you already know my thesis on look like the whole bond yield thing how bond yields going up and stocks going down i get it like that that exists but i think that is going to soften it's already been softening that relationship but what instead could be very interesting is when we start getting some very real ugly looking cpi data inflation data that we know is temporary it is very possible that we're going to see this same kind of crash maybe not as severe but a similar crash or at least the volatility of this crash that we have seen between february 19th and approximately let's see today is the 11th so to about the 8th you know the 8th 9th is when the market really started recovering again it is possible that we're going to see that same period of pain recur maybe not at the same level of paying the same extremeness but i think when inflation data comes in high there could be this similar panic and then reconciliation panic and reconciliation and so the point of that is to say i am motivated especially with this last little oopsy-doopsies that happened here over the last few weeks i'm motivated to make sure i keep my margin under 20 as soon as possible even if that means me selling a few positions i have less conviction in i would rather roll my lower conviction stocks and concentrate them into the higher conviction stocks which is something i did before the crash but now as prices are going up again i'm going to consider doing that again i like shaving i like selling companies when they're up uh not usually because i just don't like selling in general but i'm saying when i go to sell i like selling when they're up obviously who doesn't but anyway if we go through the next you know three months of of some of this uh you know inflation volatility and the market just doesn't understand and the market thinks no big inflation is coming we're going to see these drops again not to this magnitude but you want to be prepared for that so don't get in my opinion i would not be doing any short-term options right now i can't predict when that pain is going to come back i would be buying the dips though just like we did last week i bought a ton of money or a ton of money worth of stocks last week and i'm really grateful i did because that was that ended up being the bottom when i just loaded the boat uh again luck or maybe it's a combination of everything that we're seeing in the market by tracking the market as much as we are but i find it very interesting that last thursday i say i think bond investors or institutional investors in that video watch that video in that video i say i think institutional investors are going to u-turn and they're going to go wow there's some really big good deals here on tech we should rotate back out of recovery stocks and go back into tech folks look at what the bloomberg ran this morning it's literally like they're watching my channel wall street is rethinking the treasury threat to big tech stocks it's literally what we called last week and again i'm not saying you know here's here's the profit who can tell the future i can't i do believe that the next decade is going to be a stock market you want to be a part of you want to be a part of this stock market over this next decade i don't know when we're going to see this kind of volatility again but i don't think we're done with it this this inflation fear people aren't all of a sudden convinced that inflation is not coming so we might see the bond market fluctuate up down a little bit and we might see stocks just continue to go up for a while uh it is possible we go back to higher highs that we had before but i do think at least over these next three months whether it happens or not we want to be very cautious and prepared for another freakout inflation style dip and that cpi data coming out over like this last cpi data set that was like a bailout that was great thank you i think that's correct long term for the long term trend but over the next uh you know three months we're gonna get much worse and uglier news now it depends what the market looks at if the market says wow year-over-year inflation data is so bad this is horrible market tanks if the market values that if the market goes no no no kevin's right the year-over-year data doesn't matter because we're measuring into the pit of the pandemic we shouldn't do that what's the month over month inflation data and if we're not seeing inflation data month over month which actually came in lower than expected from january to february which was another bit of good news if that continues from feb to march march to april april to may and then we get that measure in june that final measure in june where it really matters uh you know these next three months being the ones that matter because that's when the pit was from last year yeah then we might not actually see another big dip like we just had so my bottom line expectations and my strategy going forward and i don't sound like a broken record but it's so so freaking important especially the pain everybody went through in the last two weeks don't kid yourself like that is real pain you are valid to feel those emotions i feel those emotions too it's just what you do with those emotions that makes you a different investor do you sell uh or and then that's it i get a reset i'm going to start over or do you double down and that's up to you obviously you know what my strategy is so what's my strategy now going forward well stocks are going up again i'm going to take this as an opportunity especially stocks go up i'm gonna reevaluate some of my positions i'm gonna look at some of my positions and i go okay what do i have that i want to dump and that doesn't mean that i don't love the company it just means i don't love the company enough to let that company be a reason that i'm potentially higher on margin than i want to be it's just not worth it i'd rather keep my more concentrated positions and i'll sell as the market's going up i'll sell a few things so over the next few weeks if you're in the stocks in psychology of money group which you can get in with the expiring coupon code which expires in four days uh you get 38 off access to private live streams and all my alerts uh then you will see those sell alerts uh when they come up but uh and there have already been cell alerts or at least a cell alert which i'll talk about more a different time but anyway uh the goal is get under 20 margin as soon as possible now you have to be careful but personally look i'm if i took all my cash right now and paid down my margin i'd be at about 30 margin if i just sit around and do nothing it's quite possible the market could appreciate to a point prices could go up to a point where i'm at 20 margin and i literally didn't have to do anything like the market basically just bailed me out over time right i don't want to rely on that i want to look at like look at a snapshot of my portfolio today and my goal is to pay down a good ten percent of margin myself and if the prices go up and that means i'm at 10 margin in the future fine what's margin gonna provide me in the next crash the next time we get this kind of pain and volatility and all the crazy commentary that we get in the youtube comment section that's like nope nope this is the end tesla's going to zero it's over we're gonna see uh bitcoin go to zero you know all these these crazy comments like that time will come again i lived those comments because of the march crisis right and it's look i'm this is not to single out folks but this is a serious thing this is so common you know oh people are out of money and didn't realize it was a seven layer dip this is a very common phrase that people say when it's like well it's just gonna keep dipping but what do i say on this channel sure it might feel like it's never going to end but when it ends it ends fast kind of like this oh it's going to get worse i mean we see this this is all the time we bought the dip and it kept dipping well i guess we got lucky because it turned around pretty dang fast uh so let's see here if you guys think this dip is f uh so far is scary i'd say hold your horses in extra cash because the fear and greed index haven't even reached extreme levels yet well i also don't think the fear indices are going to hit extreme levels or would have last week like my reaction to the the comments was like well why why tell like this is this is a very important uh a question for you why did the market crash in on february 19th think about that why did the market crash why did all of a sudden we have this crisis for two weeks okay the best argument if i was gonna make the argument the best argument would probably be valuations are high bond yields skyrocketing okay it's a fair argument so we had a correction because of that now let me give you this why did we crash in march of 2020 because the world was in panic mode buying out toilet paper thinking we were going to shut down for 60 to 90 days permanently everything was gonna be shut down i don't mean lockdown with with martial law we were talking about we were talking about martial law coming to make sure people stay in their homes and we've got all these pictures of of hazmat suits and gas masks people are going to congress with gas masks on you got bill ackman on tv going shut everything down for 30 days this is the worst crisis ever and everything is like everyone is like you know that's fear this last bull crap correction was a joke it was fugazi of a crash in my opinion i mean okay bond yields shot up at a fast rate really that's the best you got to create a market crash that is what caused this correction in tech right but to me it just created a big fat buying opportunity now it was a warning it was like a nice little nice little red flag like just be careful don't you have too much margin now fortunately i was not over leveraged i went in i went in like 29 30 percent it's higher than i wanted to be i wanted to be at 20 good thing i sold on feb 16 and reduced my margin otherwise i would have been even more nervous but uh and who knows i mean the market could crash tomorrow after i make this video what do i know i'm not trying to predict tomorrow i'm just saying be prepared for that volatility i don't think we're going to see a dip as big as we just did and looking back and i believe that then too why did why is it not as bad as what we saw last year and a lot of people like oh it's a year to the date see this is the crash this is it we're gonna have the same thing again for you to believe that you have to tell me that the fear that we saw last march is the same fear we feel right now nobody feels that fear nobody feels that same fear my thoughts if you like my perspectives you know what to d your support i appreciate you and we'll see you in the next video
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