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Here's Bitcoin to gold. Um, this is uh promising. Looks like uh a turn is in. Famous last words. I don't want to be I don't want to be the famous last words here, but it does look like a little bit of a breakthrough here. And you know what's interesting, and you can see it here, the correlation between Bitcoin and gold there is very low.
Very low by historical standards. Um, and so to see Bitcoin uh starting to break out relative to gold is very re- reassuring from our point of view. You know, we're big bulls on Bitcoin. It's a technology revolution. It's uh a um a new global monetary system. And it's the first of its kind in a new asset class.
So, we think it has miles to go. Cathie Wood's latest Bitcoin signal could be one of the most important we've seen all year. And if she's right, the market may be completely mispricing what comes next. Wood says Bitcoin is finally breaking out against gold, something ARK considers extremely reassuring because gold has historically moved first before Bitcoin enters its more explosive phase.
And now, the data is starting to line up. Bitcoin has surged roughly 34% from its summer lows and just printed its first golden cross since May 2025, a technical signal historically associated with major momentum shifts. But here's where it gets interesting. Spot Bitcoin ETFs recently absorbed more than $1 billion in just three trading days, while Ethereum exploded 37% in only 10 days.
That doesn't prove the bull run has started, but capital appears to be rotating back into crypto. And Cathie Wood believes Bitcoin still has miles to go. If gold was the warning, Bitcoin may be the explosion. That's our bull case, 1 and 1/2 million in 2030. Uh the there are a few compositional changes.
Uh one, stablecoins, so especially Tether in the emerging markets, uh have usurped the one of the roles that we thought Bitcoin would serve. Uh and that is we thought that before stablecoins that people would and they were they would buy Bitcoin as an insurance policy against uh confiscation of wealth either in the form of inflation, hyperinflation, and massive devaluations, uh which occur regularly in the emerging markets, or outright confiscation of wealth.
On the other side, what has happened to gold recently? Gold has doubled over the last 2 years. Uh and uh and has outperformed Bitcoin royally in in the last year. Uh so the digital gold role, and we think with intergenerational wealth transfers accelerating here throughout the world, uh that the younger generation will diversify into a digital gold uh option rather than the physical gold.
It's more their world. And uh so we think that role has uh increased or that that the price should be supported by what has happened to gold. If you look at what's happened historically, certainly the last two cycles, gold has led Bitcoin. So we think Bitcoin is getting ready for another big big run.
Something is happening between Bitcoin and gold that investors may be completely underestimating. Gold initially responded to the uncertainty surrounding Kevin Warsh and the Federal Reserve. But, Bitcoin refused to disappear, and that matters. Because historically, gold has sometimes moved first. ARK Invest points to 2016, 2019, and the 2020 liquidity shock.
Periods when strength in gold preceded major moves in Bitcoin. But now, Cathie Wood sees something changing. Bitcoin is beginning to break out relative to gold, and she calls that very reassuring. Think about the fundamentals. Gold protects wealth because it is scarce, globally recognized, and independent of any government.
Bitcoin takes that scarcity argument into the digital age with mathematically fixed issuance, global transferability, and a supply miners cannot increase simply because prices rise. ARK calculates Bitcoin's correlation with gold since 2020 at just 0.14. So, Bitcoin doesn't need gold to rally forever.
Gold may simply be the signal that investors are questioning fiat money first. Then capital begins searching for the harder asset. And if inflation, government debt, and monetary uncertainty intensify, we may not simply be watching another Bitcoin cycle. We could be watching the beginning of a historic repricing of money itself.
Listen carefully to Cathie Wood. Because of those uh three revolutions. And if we're right on on inflation, the pressure should be uh on gold will be to the downside. I will say we've been thinking carefully about uh Bitcoin and gold and the insurance policies that both do provide. Because we think this technology revolution is going to put a lot of companies in harm's way.
And we think there will be counterparty risk if enough companies uh get into trouble. It's interesting during um um the 1800s, 200 railroads went bankrupt. So, there was so much capital chasing the rail opportunity. We don't think that's going to happen in AI um because the difference between then and now is, you know, the railroads were they were built on a hope and a prayer that a new world would develop uh and that revenues ultimately would come.
Uh AI, the revenues are are screaming. The returns on invested capital in this space are huge today. Uh and we see Elon's uh terrestrial data centers uh turning from huge losses to massive profits as it has pivoted or he has pivoted that part of the business for the short term uh into the Neo cloud business.
So, huge returns on on uh invested capital. I think uh Anthropic agreed to pay 50 billion dollars per big gigawatt. That's the equivalent, just the 50 billion and I think uh it cost Elon and team somewhere in the mid to high 20s. So, right there, immediate returns on invested capital. Uh so, but we do think that there is going to be a lot of creative destruction uh as this new world happens.
Again, robotics, energy storage, AI, blockchain technology, multi-omics technology, so touching every one of our sectors. Uh and so, you know, if enough funds like private credit made huge bets on SaaS um and some software coming companies and stocks are coming back a bit. Uh Um, salesforce.com had a a very nice rebound after um, illustrating how important a genetic AI and Slack together um,
might benefit that company. Um, but it still has a huge legacy software base to deal with. Nonetheless, it's not all death and destruction in in software. But, we do believe that there are going to be dislocations in every part of the economy. Uh, and you know, we've been talking about electric vehicles and robo taxis and the impact on uh, transportation broadly.
We think that's one big sector we'll see a lot of dislocations. Uh, but we think every sector will. And so, this idea of, okay, where's the counterparty risk in the economy? That might accrue to the benefit of both Bitcoin and gold. And so, we we shall see. We think Bitcoin is both a risk-off and a risk-on asset.
So, in the environment we see, we believe this ratio will continue to move up and go to all-time highs. And this is where the story becomes bigger than Bitcoin versus gold. Because if Cathie Wood is right, we may be watching capital slowly reconsider what a safe haven actually looks like in a digital world.
Gold has protected wealth for thousands of years. Bitcoin has existed for less than two decades. Yet today, institutions, corporations, and investors are being forced to ask a question that would have sounded impossible years ago. What if the next great store of value isn't something we can hold, but something no government can print.
That doesn't guarantee Bitcoin go straight up. Volatility will come. Corrections will come. But if this shift is real, the biggest mistake may be focusing only on Bitcoin's price today and completely missing where capital could be moving tomorrow. So, what do you think? Is gold still the ultimate safe haven or is Bitcoin becoming its digital successor?
Drop your answer in the comments. And if you enjoy content like this, like, subscribe, and turn on notifications. Thanks for watching. I'll see you in the next one.
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