저자: VijayKedia · 외국인
요약 보기
투자 기준으로 프로모터 실적이 없는 기업, 페니스톡, 조작(오퍼레이터) 주식은 피한다고 설명. 부채는 이자 상환 능력과 성장 간 균형이 중요하며 무부채가 꼭 좋은 것은 아니라고 언급. 장기간(10~20년) 관찰하며 경기 침체로 부진한 우량 기업을 기다리는 전략을 강조. 실제 수익률 예로 18년간 16,000배 수익 종목을 언급. 매도 전략은 경영진이 초점을 잃으면 떠나는 '비빕샤나' 비유로 설명.
다듬은 글
The theme of this session was, "The most difficult choice is yours as an investor. You are a very successful investor, and you consider yourself an investor and even call yourself an investor. There are three things you absolutely avoid when choosing a stock. You don't like to touch, tell, or recommend stocks that you don't like to touch.
What could be those three things that would make the choice easier? According to you, there could be three things: first, I do n't invest in companies whose promoters do n't have a previous track record. I don't invest in companies that have at least 15-20 years of experience, or experience has value here.
So, first, I do n't invest in companies that are completely investors, that is, promoters. Second, I invest in penny stocks. People think I buy small stocks, small caps, but there's a difference between penny stocks and small caps. So, I also don't invest in companies that have a long track record. I do n't invest in stocks that are bad and have a lot of debt, meaning a company with so much debt that it could have service problems.
Third, I don't invest in stocks that I feel are operator-driven, or in other words, they come into the market during bull markets and are wiped out during bear markets. In stocks where the promoter's name is sometimes involved in the market's rise and fall, or if they are operator-driven, they are manipulated.
I don't invest in such stocks. All these points are very important for those watching this program because this session is going to be especially important for investors who want to learn and start investing in the stock market. Kidiya ji said three important things: we don't invest in new companies.
We have many questions in our mind regarding this. We will ask, do n't invest in new companies. We do n't invest in companies that have debt and whose promoters have a poor track record. This question is valid, but it is said that if we don't invest in new companies, then how will the entire primary equity market grow because we say that only then The primary market will grow when the company comes, presents its plan and gives confidence to the people.
People will invest in the IPO. If you listen to me, then people will not invest in the IPO at all. So there is a difference between an IPO and new management. Yes, IPO companies can also have a 10-20 year old asset management and then they come for IPO. This can also happen, so I am not talking about them.
By the way, I do not invest in IPOs either because the value is already squeezed out first, mostly by saying this, but IPOs also have a 20-year tenure. And the second thing is, look sir, there are a lot of investors here. I have not taken any contract of the primary market. I have so many investors.
I have 14 crore accounts. I have demat accounts. Understand that there must be two, three, four crore active investors. So, it is suitable for every person. Yes, there will be many people who will tell me to invest in a new company because there is opportunity in that only. So the market is big, everything here.
It is being sold, tea is available for Rs. 00, tea is available for Rs. 00 and tea is available for Rs. 00 and all three are running, so there are all kinds of customers. The second question within this, Sir, many questions come to people's mind regarding debt and we are asking this question because the audience that we have, the people who are present, they also invest in the stock market and indirectly also invest in mutual funds through stocks because ultimately the funds of mutual funds are also invested in those stocks and we always tell our audience in our programs that you should check the portfolio of mutual funds, check its holdings.
There is a lot of confusion regarding the debt of companies. Many different formulas or parameters are told for investment in the market. It is said that debt loaded companies are not good. The thumb rule is that those companies have a lot of debt but it is also believed that if there is a shortage of capital and the companies have a good growth plan and they have debt, only then they will be able to grow, those are capitalists who have capital If it is not there then how will it grow further, so how do you choose the scale of debt also, which companies do you choose which have zero debt or you like to see the quality of performance of those companies, no zero debt is not necessary, it is good to have zero debt but you are absolutely right that if the company does not raise money through debt then how will it grow, how will it expand within the company, so there should be a matching within it that for example, suppose the turnover of the company is 2000 crores and suppose the company has taken debt of 500 crores or has taken debt of 100 crores then I will have to pay 100.50 crores in debt every year if I have taken 100 crores and I will have to pay 100 crores as debt interest, so if the interest payment of 100 crores for a 2000 company is going to be 5% of its revenue then what will the company earn and what interest will it pay and what Then when will it repay its principal, when will it repay it, so there should be a coordination in this, so I prefer generally that there should be a minimum date or it should be such that even if the company goes into losses for two-three years, the company should not have any problem in making minimum interest payment, it should not have to sell any asset, so if there is any over-ambitiousness, there should be ambition but it should be coordinated according to your growth, so wherever there is a balance between growth, profit and interest payment, I can invest there.
Sir, a question arises again and again in India is regarding the corporate governance of companies and we have seen many cases in the last five-six years, seven years and even before that, very good and top-ranking companies got destroyed due to poor corporate governance and there was huge wealth destruction in them, how do you apply filters, how do you understand that this is a good and clean company for investment because thousands of companies are listed in the market, for the common investors, they have to check their records of their promoters.
It is difficult to check their details and know about them. What advice would you give in this matter? What would you say that if one has to choose a clean company from among 5000-6000 companies, then what things should be looked at? No, sir, I have a quote that there are large caps, demergers, mid caps, demergers, small caps, demergers, scrap caps, also what is bangalore cap, please tell me about them too.
The bangalore caps, the 6000 companies you are naming, those companies come in the scrap category, they come in the bull market like a chess chicken and they go back, they come in the bull market and go back, then their performance is slow, so saying this, the ones that come in my notice are those 500 companies and I watch them for 10-15 years, I watch them and I give an example, I have given examples at many places that I What I do is, consider any such athlete who has a very good track record in the past.
This means that any company which, when the economic cycle came, the boom cycle came, the company set some big records and did very well, but after that, when there was a downturn in the economy and he fell ill, the athlete who had set records, he fell ill, had some health issues or went out of form, for example, many times we see a cricketer batting and bowling brilliantly, suddenly he goes out of form for a year, two, three years, so the company which goes out of form but has not lost its skills, I keep waiting for it to come back in form.
Sometimes the wait for such companies is five years, even 10 years, when I feel that the sector of this company has also improved and this company after 10 years of recession, that is, economic downturn. Even after the cycle, the company is still standing and the strength of the company has not ended that it will be wiped out and when the good days come back, it will run fast and strong, so this is how I identify the company, out of the selected 5000 companies, you keep an eye on 100 or 500 and out of that 500 you choose 50 gems or 40 gems, our viewers would like to know what is the level of returns on them, what is the level of returns on those stocks which you have selected, what is your average return on that investment on those stocks, I did not understand that you have selected your special stocks, out of 500 stocks you have selected 100, how many are the stocks giving the best returns, well not the ones giving the best returns, there are all types of stocks in it, there are also those which have not given very good returns and I have one stock which gave me 16000 times return, understand me in 16, 17, 18 years, 16 It gave 16000 times return, so I was lucky that I held on to those shares for 18 years, for 18 years, yes 18 years, in 18 years companies exit the Sensex, India changes for 25 years, companies do not stay at the top, so we invest in the company, we are called shareholders of the company, we are called equity share holders, we are called owners, share holders, so you have to have that patience that if this company is doing well and in between there were many ups and downs, there were such ups and downs that two-thirds of the value of the company was wiped out, still it remained in it, I will ask you that last question, the biggest question that comes in the mind of investors is when to exit the market, exit strategy is more difficult, before investing in the stock market, everyone sees the entry, whether the valuation is visible or the growth is visible, how to exit, how do you plan your exit, what is your exit strategy, see I have discussed the exit strategy at one place I will tell you here an example that was given of the exit strategy and you can learn from Vibhishana in Ramayana.
So what Vibhishana did was that he invested in a Triple A company. Ravana had a golden Lanka for him. So you can understand what kind of governance and what kind of company would his Triple A management become. But when that management deviated from its focus and became unfocused, if it deviated from its focus, then what did it do?
It left him and exited him. And joined another Triple A company which was inside him. As I told you, there is an athlete but now he is ill but his skill, his ability has not ended yet. There was another Triple A company which was Ram. So this is a perfect example that when the focus of the management is removed, then to leave it and then to enter the new management.
Kedia ji told you through the Ramayana that like Vibhishana and do not say bad about Vibhishana because Vibhishana's exit strategy was right. He left a sinking company and started investing in a rising company. So always We take Vibhishana in a negative tone. Thank you very much Kedia ji.
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