저자: VijayKedia · 외국인
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결론: 인도 주식시장은 초강세장 초입이며 장기 투자 관점을 유지해야 한다. 투자 철학: 용기·인내·확신(매수 용기, 보유 용기, 보유 인내)이 핵심이며, 단기 매매는 성공률이 1% 수준이라 피해야 한다. 좋은 경영진을 가진 기업에 투자하는 것이 중요하다. 시장 전망: 현재 지수는 2006년 수준이며 초강세장이 올 것이라 주장한다. 연말 지수 9,000 돌파, 2017년 2월 10,000 도달을 추측했으나 확정 수치가 아닌 추측이라고 강조했다. 유망 테마: 단기 몬순 이슈보다 디스럽션(파괴적 혁신)이 다음 강세장의 테마라고 봤다. 종목 - 레프로 인디아(Repro India): 인도 서적 시장 성장(2020년 7조 루피 전망)을 근거로 장기 상승을 낙관. 현재 주가 약 35루피, 평균 매입가 약 300루피 수준이라고 언급하며 목표가는 제시하지 않았다. 3~4분기 실적 입증 필요. 종목 - 아로그(Arrow/AR): 보유 중이나 소량이며 사업은 좋지만 전략 변경이 필요해 당분간 추천하지 않는다. 종목 - 기타 추천 목록: 리치 하우징, 사두안 케미칼 등을 언급. 특히 사두안 케미칼은 화학 강세장이 시작됐다고 봤다. 리스크: 브렉시트, 환율, 경기 둔화 등 공포는 일시적이므로 장기 목표가 있다면 과도하게 걱정할 필요 없다는 입장. 출연자 전망: 장기 강세장 지속, 단기 조정은 자연스러운 현상으로 인식.
다듬은 글
we've interacted on various forums both publicly and and again on television uh the legend says that vij kadia came with a small Capital to Mumbai and you've managed to make that small Capital very big I don't want to get into numbers and how many zeros you've added to your net worth but I want to find out that how have you manage to add those those zeros to your net worth I mean uh It is believed that to be a successful uh successful investor you need to understand a lot of algebra maths and geometry that's not the case with you okay first of all congratulations to you and your team your channel your colleague and everybody who has been associated with you for 7 years and uh I feel that as if you are as old as my career in stock market it doesn't feel like seven years only in seven years time ladies on that table we should not talk about age so anyway now coming to uh whatever little bit success I had in this market so far uh it is obviously luck has played a greater role and and uh second thing I would say can maybe my passion and perseverance uh that must have played the trick so it it is possible to start today with a small capital and make and and multiply it but how do you do that of course every time is right time to start my view is that uh that wherever you are whatever you have you you should start so Mr K you know firstly take us through what really drove you to invest in the markets what are the key mantras that you followed when you who decided to take your first investment see my entry in the market was uh out of passion and out of compulsion passion because since my childhood I was very much interested into uh stock market and compulsion because I did not have any Capital do any business in my life so that was the that was the only business which you came into stock markets because you had no money to start a business so that was compulsion yes but it so he decided to bet on other people's business no because he did not need Capital you don't need an office that time when I started that time you did not need any office you don't didn't need any Capital no knowledge also because I started with trading right so it's okay but two things that you definitely need is courage and patience and you have that yes courage and knowledge courage and patience very important okay to succeed in this market now we've spoken about what you need in the markets courage patience knowledge but what should you probably stay away from when investing uh in my view maybe my friend will not agree with me I think first thing you should keep yourself away is that trading oh sorry forgive me uh for the simple reason that no he always has a stop loss so come on yeah then it's okay because training has its own method okay because success rate in trading is hardly 1% right so it could be injurious to your wealth so first thing is to stop trading and second thing in my view to succeed in this in this market is to invest in best management uh with best manag management because investing with bad management is something like Sleeping with the Enemy so you have to be very careful when you choose your shares so so this is what you can say that my Mantra we've got those mantras courage patience and vision to buy courage to hold and then patience to keep these are the three things I think let's start some Twitter questions oh yes absolutely in fact all of our viewers as promised they've been waiting to get their questions answered from you so um we have a question from Arun L coming in and of course because he um has a question on a very relevant theme at this point of time monsoons um according to you what are the good themes that um one could play with with the monsoons in the backdrop that's the question coming in from Arun L see that is a very short-term perspective Monsoon comes Monsoon goes Monsoon fails Monsoon recovers so I do not have any Theory which is based on the monsoon this Monsoon okay my uh perception is little uh longer term so in my view the best uh uh Theory which can be played for the next bull market should be disruption in my view anything which can be disrupted will be disrupted in India right so I think that is the uh my theme yeah Mr K of this year has been quite historic we saw the markets going as low as 6,900 to 88,200 where we are at this point of time where do you see markets headed by the end of this year and will there be again a good buying opportunity for somebody looking for a long-term Horizon the way you invest in markets of course I personally I am not of course when Market falls down uh I also disappointed but I'm not shattered let me tell you Market this is the nature of the market market will keep on falling Market keep on Rising you have to keep your faith in this market it's not like when Market goes to 7,000 you will say that I we are at 2008 level when Market goes up to 8,000 level you will say that we are at 2003 level the fact is that that we are at 2006 level in my view good times are coming ahead in my view we are in a super super bull market in my view if you do not open your eyes now you are bound to regret later so and so far the numbers are concerned those are actually those are not a fact just to guess just a guess work in my view we should cross 9,000 very soon and should be 10,000 by February 17 but I may go wrong also because I'm I'm not invested on the base of those numbers let me tell you you know word which we use on uh on uh Dalal Street and sad bam you may want to pay attention here ladies pay attention here is multier I'm asking this question on behalf of everybody so if you have to identify just three stocks maybe two stocks buy them and sell them in 2020 important thing is that you should stay with the shares which are those shares I want to know no that there are 6,000 shares come on I mean no you cannot buy 6,000 shares and say look I'll stay with them right let me big money is made in two or three stocks if I look at raak Jala's portfolio lopin Titan and a Kura Bank have made money if I look at your financial history Atul AO and a Punjab tractor and Sudan chemical have made money even some you know those even some other ceramic companies have made money for you okay out of 6,000 shares in my view 4,000 5,000 there are like three caps no large cap mid capap and small cap in my view there is another cap that is bangar Cap so the bangar cap actually 4 to 5,000 company belongs to cap which is bangar Cap now C is also woken up now they are delisting or BC they are delisting 2,000 3,000 company from their platform okay to P answer this is what about your 6,000 uh cap so principally I think we must be having 1,000 or 1,500 shares now coming to I remember once I asked raakesh told me this is compliment to me that with title he took the name of atoto also okay now coming to next multier it is very difficult to decide because when you buy share that time it is very it is you can't decide that you can't think that it is going to be a multiv wagger you have to flow with the time you have to flow with the you know with the company with the development with the changes with the Innovation so but I am uh I discussed many times with you on your many shows let's put that list actually out before we take some more Twitter questions some stocks which you discussed with Vijay Kia and you may you know some of our regular viewers may find repetitive for for for those who want fresh advice fresh ideas from Mr Kia those are top ideas of vij LC housing more like a long Hall stock Sudan chemical Because he believes that uh the real bull market in chemicals has already started but B now sell now is all about addressing and connecting viewers with the right questions so Twitter anything on SMS why don't you guys take over right Mr Kia now you do have an art of picking out a bangar cap into big cap so let's talk about uh one query that we have got and that's about Repro India we have a query coming in from man Amin he wants to know what's your take on Repro India and what's the scalability for the next 5 years for the stock and the company okay now it is clear that I holding Repro India how much do you want more than 5% okay no I like the fact that you Frank and what's your buying price yeah I don't know maybe come on I been bought at 425 you don't know your average so average maybe 300 or something now the logic you see for 5 years you're talking okay so now Repro in my view which is which may be biased and I may be wrong also right Repro is in the a star in the making okay okay it seems to me and I may go wrong also I'm telling you for the simple matter I will give you a logic MH Indian book market right now is 300 billion rupees 30,000 CR as per Nelson report by 2020 this book Market will become 70,000 CR precisely 7739 billion rupees okay so out of that 70,000 CR I assume that half of that will come from online sales and half of that will go from uh come from the offline sales okay so 35,000 crores of the books will be sold online I assume out of the 35,000 CR half of the books will be sold by uh hard book like that is called real book and half will go to the uh digital reading like Kindle and Apple and Google and all those things so now that is that is left with 17,500 CR Repro is cing to that market 17,500 CR so I assume if Repro can get a market share of even 15% then also it should have a sales of 2,000 plus CR in 2020 and even if they have a 10% margin net profit margin generally margin in this kind of uh business is bigger than it's 20% plus okay but suppose even if they make 10% margin then also they should make a profit of whatever done now you can calculate a simple arithmetic so this is my base of uh being bullish on Repro obviously it will take some time because now company is in a transformation phase earlier they were into printing then from printing this swis to uh rapples that is a digitization of textbooks and all now they have tied up with Ingram which is the real history okay you know when an investor buys a stock they always look at the margin of safety which is what is your downside how much money can you lose where is the stock right now and I just realized that uh the stock has gone up as we speak there's a needle Spike there uh what is the margin of safety 15 20% can go out in a bad Market but that's not more than that course you see in stock market you should always be ready even if you are 100% sure that this stock cannot go down then also you should have this kind of uh mind that stock may fall 25% tomorrow for some EXT reason okay uh obviously R will take some time there is no reason for this spike in the market now it is going to take 3 four quarter okay to prove their uh you know numbers so but margin of safety in my view if you go by the their printing business okay which in itself is a lucrative business the company used to make 30 35 CR rupees of net profit even in the past so this year had been bad for Repro because of various reasons because of the African you know the but currency goof up and all so they should recover from there also the current market price is around at 35 rupees where would you expect 435 rupees 35 rup for ref 435 yeah yeah 435 okay so where do you expect it to go in the last no I don't have a price Target I'm flowing with the growth in the company sure you know so now it is up to you to decide to suppose if that happens whatever the idea which I shared with you if you agree to that idea then you should tell me that the price of rep should be this by okay let's talk about another query that we have and this one is about uh Aries AR grow do you think it could be the next Dark Horse like Aries Arro AR AG AR would do you think it would be a dark horse like sarian chemicals I don't know now I I bought arago of course I'm holding arago this is again one more clarification so I do have vested interest in arago okay uh but I have just uh bought in a limited quantity just uh like just for it for the testing right so uh let us see going uh right now I can't say anything about AR it will take some time because they are in good business sure but they need to change their strategy okay so it will take some time that is why I don't recommend we have a very interesting question coming in from uh ADB at Equity Adel B now he asks how to be sober in such market conditions where each time there's a new fear which arises example it's brexit this time around to I have seen so many brexit so many faed so many rupe devaluation recession slowdown War battle and all these things this a part of life in your stock market so okay when your goal is bigger now then when you have larger goal then you shouldn't be worried about all these small small issues they will come and they will go they will affect your Investments and but you shouldn't be I don't don't think that you should take it uh not so seriously with a pinch of so one more question because the problem with us is not that we thinking the problem with us is like uh that it's not that we think uh too high and we miss it the problem is that we think too low and we reach it okay I know you've extended appointment with you and lot of Twitter questions have PED in thick and fast I've got a long list we can go on and on but M maybe one more question and then we can allow Mr K to escape okay so we have um a very interesting question at that one we have Vishal panchal who writes in he says that he would like one suggestion one small company probably a low price rate one clearly it's a retail investor thinking um which will give more than a 10 times return in the future you see the question is this he wants a fish okay and I am here to share my whatever little bit knowledge I have of fishing so you have to decide whether you want to uh learn fishing or you want to earn a fish it is up to you well somebody insist that they want the fish they don't want to learn they be everybody want shortcuts I'm vegetarian fantastic to have you on E now really appreciate your time and uh U thank you for making this day very special and thank you for sharing your words of wisdom with us thank you thank you find us on Facebook at facebook.com/ etow and don't forget to click the like button you can also follow us on Twitter @ etow live to stay updated with all our programming hit the Subscribe button on our YouTube channel by logging on to youtube.com/ user now
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