저자: DanIves · 외국인
요약 보기
AI 인프라 투자는 3회차 초입이며 향후 4조달러 규모 지출 전망. 데이터 레이어(Snowflake, Palantir, Datadog)가 새로운 수익화 축. Snowflake 목표가 280달러 상향, Palantir 200달러 목표·장기 시총 1조달러 전망, Salesforce는 Agentforce로 매출 성장 기대. IBM 300달러 목표(양자·사이버보안). 사이버보안 예산 향후 수년간 2배 전망, CrowdStrike·Palo Alto 선호. 나스닥 3만 목표. Meta는 단기 부진하나 장기 수익화 가능, Microsoft·Oracle은 하반기 반등 기대.
다듬은 글
We are back right here on the watchlist and happy to have with us Dan Ives, global head of tech research, managing director, senior equity analyst at Wedbush Securities. We have so much to discuss. We have a lot of earnings that have come out, and I want to touch on Snowflake and Salesforce, but first, just the big picture on the AI revolution.
You talked about needing roughly a tenfold increase in computing power by 2030. Is the AI revolution still in its infancy? How do you describe where we are, because so many of the upgrades and price target raises in your notes have an AI story behind them?
Nicole, it's the third inning. The reality is that you've just seen the first part of this buildout happen. Look at the US: less than 5% of companies have gone down the AI path. In Asia ex-China it's less than 2%, Europe is obviously nowhere, and the Middle East and India are just starting to build out. In my view, this is $4 trillion of spending over the coming years. For every dollar spent on a GPU chip, eight dollars multiply across the rest of tech. That's why the second, third, and fourth derivatives—infrastructure, software, power, and energy—matter. I think we're still early, and that's our view: Nasdaq 30,000. Nasdaq 30,000 is what we're looking at.
Let's talk about some of the key names. You have an outperform rating on Snowflake, and you said your confidence in its AI strategy and moat helps you raise the price target here.
The Rodney Dangerfield of software—no respect. Look at what Snowflake has done. Nicole, you and I have talked for years. Look at Palantir first, then Datadog, then Snowflake. What it's showing you is that the data layer is now the monetization point. It's not just chips anymore; it's gone to the data layer. That's why Snowflake matters. It's not just important for Snowflake. In my view the stock keeps going higher, and it means monetization is now happening in software. I think we saw that at Salesforce.com too when it came to Agentforce. That is the most important takeaway from these earnings.
You raised your price target to 280 from 270, and you said Snowflake has a moat. What is the moat?
Data. When you think about data warehousing, that data layer is the new oil, the new gold. That's the moat, if you will, and it compounds. That's Datadog's moat, and it's ultimately what I believe Oracle's moat will be. It's what I'd call the AI growth trade, given the worry that Anthropic and OpenAI are going to crush every software company. Some software companies could get disintermediated, and we see some of that playing out, but data infrastructure and installed base are key.
And Palantir, which is up about 7% today—the largest percentage increase since November 2025—is at 141. Do you have a price target, or do you think Palantir goes higher as well?
We talk about $200, and our view is that Palantir can reach a trillion-dollar market cap in the coming years. If you get caught up in the ebbs and flows of quarters, you miss the narrative happening underneath. The monetization in terms of use cases has only just started with Palantir.
Let's talk about Salesforce, where you have an outperform. Tell me about that story. You talked about Agentforce and Data Cloud, and said the agentic products will really drive organic revenue growth.
Look at Benioff—he's really the poster child for the "sales apocalypse" in terms of the worries you see with Salesforce. Some of that was self-inflicted; they were probably late to the game. But when you look at 150,000 customers, Agentforce is going to be their opportunity. It's over a billion dollars now, and if you look at the trajectory, it starts to reach 8 to 10% of revenue over the next six to nine months. That becomes a huge driver of the story, a big step in the right direction for Salesforce.
And for IBM, you put a $300 target on it because of the quantum strategy. Tell me about the IBM story.
Look at everything Arvind is building at IBM—cybersecurity, quantum computing. That's what we saw recently, and it put them back on the radar. It's a transformation story in terms of what's happened with AI and quantum. When you're turning around a cruise ship in a river, you're going to see areas that are declining, and they definitely have pressure in parts of the business. But the growth areas in AI and quantum are a key part of the re-rating. I believe this is a sweeping change for them as a tech player.
Can we talk about the CapEx spending on AI versus the return on investment and monetization? Which names in your mind are showing monetization, where they've spent a lot but are making a lot?
Alphabet is clearly one, and they've been rewarded accordingly. Amazon is another where monetization is clearly coming, and you're starting to see the CapEx dollars pay off. Then Microsoft, which I think is oversold relative to the monetization that's starting to happen. Microsoft and Oracle are the two names I think will be the comeback kids as we look into the second half of the year.
So you said to get the popcorn out because this is only the beginning of the AI buildout. You also see tailwinds for the cybersecurity sector.
Go back to March, the RSA Conference, and throughout that period the fears of stocks getting crushed. Cybersecurity budgets are going to double in my opinion over the next few years. The surface area is increasing. CrowdStrike and Palo Alto are incrementally well positioned to capture this market. Investors are still underestimating what the opportunity looks like. Zscaler is a name we still like. That was a huge gut punch, but I think the stock got a little oversold relative to the numbers.
Would you scoop up Zscaler today, when it's down 30% this week?
Yes. We kept our rating. I'm a believer in everything Jay and Zscaler are doing. Was that a step back in terms of the quarter and guidance? Yes, but you can't just throw these stocks away. This is one where they'll be one of the core winners in cybersecurity. Maybe not at the level of CrowdStrike and Palo Alto, but I don't think any of that is really being factored into the stock.
What is the fork-in-the-road period for Meta? Are you worried?
No. When you're talking about CapEx spending, who is spending the most in this scene? Meta is in the penalty box because they spend the most. They had a very subpar quarter relative to monetization. The subscription service was a step in the right direction, and I think this is all part of the strategy. They have 3.5 billion users. How do you monetize them? Apple is going to monetize as essentially a toll collector on the AI highway. Some companies will do it quicker than others, but you can't look at Meta and say they won't monetize. It will just take longer, though they're taking strategically right steps.
How important are the tie-ups? You alluded to a Snowflake–Amazon tie-up as a potential game-changer.
Look, when you first see these broader tie-ups, it's no different than an eighth-grade prom—you're going to see dancing partners. But that's what you need to do in this AI arms race, whether it's GPUs, capacity, or technology. The Snowflake–Amazon tie-up is the smart move. Everything Jensen is doing, or Lisa Su at AMD, these are super smart moves relative to the start of this next phase of the buildout. Names like Nebius and others are clearly going to be direct beneficiaries. Everyone is trying to figure out who will ultimately be the winners, because there will be losers, but these companies can't wait. They need to put stakes in the ground.
Well, you said AI is only in the third inning, so there's a long way to go. Where in the world is Dan Ives? I know you're galloping around the globe spreading the word on tech and learning more with your channel checks.
Dan Ives, global head of tech research, managing director, senior equity analyst at Wedbush Securities. He needs a watch with many different global times. Thank you, Dan Ives.
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