저자: KevinGreen · 외국인
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어제 소형주 중심 전반적 반등: 10년물 금리 하락과 이란 협상 기대로 유가 4% 급락이 원인. 엔비디아 실적은 매출 약 816억달러(+85% YoY), 조정 EPS 1.87달러로 컨센서스 상회, 데이터센터 매출 752억달러(+77%), 배당 0.25달러 인상, 800억달러 자사주 매입 승인. 월마트는 매출은 상회했으나 2분기 가이던스가 하회, 포장·원자재·연료비 압박 언급. 인튜이트는 세금시즌 매출 부진과 인력 17% 감축으로 주가 약 14% 하락. S&P500은 7,500 콜 거래 집중, 7,370 부근 하방 레벨 제시. 이란 우라늄 관련 발언으로 유가가 다시 100달러 위로 상승.
다듬은 글
Let's bring in Kevin Green, senior markets correspondent right away to help set up the action today. All right, KG, it feels like the market still trying to digest Nvidia's results. Before we dive into that, that, let's get your big picture take on the state of markets now. Well, we did see a nice rebound to the upside yesterday, pretty much across the board, especially if you're looking at small cap small caps.
And I think that's on a couple of different factors here. You did see a bid within the 10-year Treasury complex, and that did drop 10-year yield yesterday. So, that was a tailwind for the equity markets. And we also had this optimism that maybe a deal could be done with Iran once again. Now, we haven't had this kind of announcement or this kind of news flow when it comes to this geopolitical risk over the last couple of weeks.
But, we did see oil move aggressively lower to the downside yesterday over 4%, and equities did move higher on that enthusiasm. Then we had the lead up into the Nvidia earnings. So, I think that was just a combination of a couple of days of selling pressure, maybe a bounce-back retracement rally back to the upside here.
And I think today we're going to see exactly how the market really kind of holds up here because it seems like we have some comments coming from Iran regarding the uranium, and that's kind of pushing oil prices back to the upside above that $100 level. And then we have the Nvidia earnings, which we'll talk about that in here in a second.
But, the fallout after Nvidia earnings, if you kind of look at the last three quarters, we did not see an aggressive sell-off during pre-market trading. Usually, the sell-off actually occurs when the equity session actually does open. And so, that readjustment when it comes to the options positioning, I think it will be a big driver for how equity is actually fair for today.
So, overall, pretty decent day yesterday, but we got to be able to have some continuation. Not sure if we have that in the take here, Diane. Okay. Yeah, and listen, those results from Nvidia, great numbers across the board, beating even the whisper numbers that I saw. Walk us through your takeaways on Nvidia.
Yeah, beating both on the top and bottom line here as expected for the market. Revenue came in at $81.61 $1 That's about an 85% growth on a year-over-year basis, and the adjusted earnings per share came in at $1.87, beating the street's expectations once again. Now, if you're looking at the adjusted gross margins, that came in at 75 cents, in line with the street's expectations, and we did see their guidance moving forward for revenue, once again, beating by around $5 billion or so.
That's to be expected, and that's exactly what happened. Now, if you're looking at their reporting system, they did update this. They are actually readjusting some of their segments here to better focus on the AI narrative as well as the edge technology within their portfolio. So, if you're looking at the data center business, that actually came in at $75.2 billion as far as revenue.
That's up 77% on a year-over-year basis. And now, their subsegment that they have, which is hyperscaler and then their AI cloud industrial enterprise segment, once again, actually did really well, 10% growth on a year-over-year basis, but seeing a bounce back. Guidance, once again, better than the street's expectations, for the most part, in line with what we see as far as the past trends.
And some of the other items that they did announce yesterday, their quarterly dividend has been raised to 25 cents. That's up from a penny, and they have an $80 billion additional buyback authorization. Now, when you're looking at a company of this size, $80 billion sounds like a lot of money, but not that big of an adjustment to the upside when you're looking at the float, just because of the market cap here.
So, overall, they are doing relatively well. The CPU business is also something that they are focusing on with Vera CPU revenue. They do believe that there's going to be around $20 billion worth of that revenue coming in for this year, and they have full confidence that this trillion-dollar revenue target that they have for Blackwell as well as the Rubin revenue forecast for this year is also going to come to fruition.
So, overall, a really good report, flat pretty much on the session here, but I think, once again, that first hour or 2 hours is really going to kind of determine in of Nvidia. As those options start to roll off, people try to close out some of their exposure here. Uh where do we see a floor in price, or do we actually see a rally uh into the open as well?
Who knows, but uh this is actually really good report, and market makers look like they have this on the nose as far as the expected move. This has been a premium seller's uh type of play uh Diane over the last three quarters. Seems like that's exactly what's happening right now. And data seeing several analysts adjust their price target uh off the back of these results to the upside is what I'm seeing.
Deutsche Bank adjusting theirs to 255. They've got a hold rating though. Uh Wedbush, as we know, they're very bullish on Nvidia. They're adjusting theirs to 330. Truist up to 307. Both of those buy or outperform ratings. Uh let's uh pivot. Let's talk Walmart. It's out with its quarterly results. Yes, it did better than expected, but it feels like they're flagging some caution about the consumer.
Walk us through your take here. Yeah, it kind of reminds us of what happened about two, two and a half years ago when it comes to their cautious stance, but the company was able to actually beat on top line revenue with that coming in at 177.75 billion dollars. You're looking at constant currency, that's growth of around 5.9% on a year-over-year basis.
And the adjusted earnings per share, for the most part, came in line with the street's expectations at 66 cents. Now, the global e-commerce uh growth, when you're looking at top line growth there, that's actually relatively strong, growth of around 26% on a year-over-year basis. But when you're looking at some of the other portions of their business as well as their guidance, coming up a little bit light.
They're looking at Q2 net sales growth between 4 and 5%. Street was looking for 5.1% there. And the adjusted earnings per share estimate for Q2 is between 72 cents, 74 cents. Street was looking for 75 cents. They are seeing some pricing pressures, as well as some input costs that are actually eating into their margins.
And when you're looking at packaging, that's something that they really did call out. Packaging and resin is actually eating into their profit margins. Fuel costs as well. This is a company that may be trying to push prices a little bit lower to stay competitive, keep their market share. And this is you know, this stock here in their guidance, especially in a high inflationary environment for now, might come up a little bit light when it comes to their guidance.
And this is something that we have seen in the past, but higher inflation actually is a tailwind for this company over the long term. Now, we are not going to talk about Kroger too much, but I also want to highlight Kroger because they also mentioned that they want to actually cut their prices in order to try to keep their market share as well.
So, there might be a little bit of a battle for the consumer staple companies right now. Some of those grocery stores and things of that nature to try to cut prices in order to keep their customers in-house and not lose them to other competitors within the street here. So, overall, it's an okay report, but the guidance came up light.
Seeing the shares down about 2 and 1/2% in pre-market trading. Uh well, it'd be interesting to see if there ends up being some kind of price war as a result of that. We've seen that at different times. And who can actually absorb that? Let's talk Intuit. Those shares are under pressure off the back of its results.
I also know that they announced some job cuts. Walk us through what's happening here. Yeah, so you're seeing the shares down about 14%. Revenue actually grew by 10% on a year-over-year basis, but it was a slight miss to the street's expectations. And the adjusted earnings per share came in at $12.80.
The street was looking for $12.57 here, but when you're looking at some of their segments, especially their guidance moving forward, coming up a little bit light. The tax season from February to April, their tax revenue actually came in lighter than the street's expectations. And they are expecting for this time next year that we will also see maybe less tax filers.
Some of that's residual from COVID-19, individuals at small businesses, and things of that nature. But also some competition. Now, they are cutting 17% of their workforce, and they are actually going to take some restructuring costs, which is going to be between around $320 million if you're looking at the midpoint, and largely that's going to be taken in Q4, but they did authorize an $8 billion repurchase authorization for the company as well.
So, they raised their guidance but coming in lighter than the street's expectations. Taxes are really kind of been spread-and-butter business, that came in light as well. That's why you were seeing this move to the downside. Not having a major impact when it comes to the software names, Diane, but the software names did kind of move a little bit to the downside as a whole yesterday post this report.
They have a niche type of market, so you can't really say because they're seeing some pockets of weakness that this is going to be happening across the board within this industry. But something of note here that they were not able to hit the bar, especially on a season or tax season that is actually seeing some favorable returns for those that are filing.
Okay, and walk us through the levels that you're looking out for on the S&P 500 today. What do flows look like to the upside and the downside? Yeah, so what we are seeing to the upside actually this morning the top traded contract is 7,500 calls, a little bit optimistic right now when you're looking at that particular level.
And then to the downside you are really looking at around this 7370-ish area to the downside. So, a very wide range, rightfully so. Once again, really nice bounce yesterday. Some of the news flow this morning a little bit more bearish. Oil's kind of moving a little bit higher here. Let's see if this was a little bit more of a retracement bounce or a technical bounce yesterday or something that is really meaningful and we're able to get back to new all-time highs here.
I think that's going to be on the back of Nvidia and the semiconductor names. We'll see how this pans out for the day, Diane. Indeed. Thank you, KG. That is Kevin Green, our senior markets correspondent.
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