저자: TomLee · 외국인
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2025년 시장은 제조업 경기 회복과 연준 금리인하, 친기업 행정부 영향으로 중소형주·금융·경기민감주 중심의 시장 확산이 예상된다고 주장. 주요 리스크는 관세·대규모 추방에 따른 정책 실패와 연준의 과도한 인플레 대응. 비트코인은 2025년 약 25만 달러, 이더리움은 5000~6000달러 가능, 알트코인 시즌 가능성 언급. 비트코인 레버리지 기업(마이크로스트래티지 등)에 대한 노출을 제시.
다듬은 글
the what I'm thinking about with animal spirits and it's a Milton Freedman reference is the ism's been below 50 for almost three years meaning companies have been cautious their visibility hasn't been great but finally the FED is cutting and we have an incoming Administration that's seen as very business friendly and so I think companies for For the First Time a long time are going to be expansionary feel confident doing mergers I think this is a very good environment for small caps midcaps the financials and cycal broadly like industrial so I I think it's going to feel a lot like the market broadens in 2025 um even as Tech sort of keeps up with the market Tom Lee Joins closing bell overtime to talk what to expect from the markets in 2025 if there will be a reemergence of animal spirits and more now I know you are a quintessential Optimist Tom but I'm curious where do you see the biggest risks uh to that forecast for next year well there's um you know the big foil in 2025 is is going to be whether or not there's a policy error and there can be two sources one would be if the incoming Administration does implement tariffs that are damaging to the economy because we know that they'd be immediate effects or if there are mass deportations that have some unknown impact on labor markets the other source would be if the FED uh becomes too inflation focused and allows the labor market to weaken and so we actually slipped from the FED sort of trying to support the economy to the FED trying to save it I think that would be a very adverse development black Rock's Bitcoin exchange traded fund saw its largest ever single day outflow as Bitcoin funds notched a fourth straight trading day of outflows totaling more than $1.5 billion black rock is shares Bitcoin trust ETF hit 88.7 million in outflows on December 24 surpassing its previous record of $ 72.7 million set on December 20 for coin glass data all 12 United states-based spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a joint total outflows H $338.44 152 billion the Fidelity wise origin Bitcoin fund and the arcade 21 shares Bitcoin ETF also saw respective December 24 outflows of 83.2 million and $75 million while the bid wise Bitcoin ETF was the only one to see an inflow which hit $8.5 million meanwhile ethereum ETF experienced two consecutive days of inflows in the leadup to Christmas us spot ethereum ETF continued their momentum with a second day of inflows on December 24 adding $ 53.6 million after a $13.8 million inflow on December 23 launched in July the ethereum funds had a slow start compared to the strong early momentum that spot Bitcoin ETF saw after their January launch however since late November the ethereum ETF have gained traction having seen an 18-day inflow streak that was broken on December 18 Bitcoin was trading at 98,3 up 4.59% in the last 24 hours while ethereum was trading at $3,420 up 3.28% over the same time according to data at the time of writing ethereum's relative strength to bitcoin the ethereum BTC ratio is currently at 0.035 some analysts say that ethereum may outperform Bitcoin in January 2025 meanwhile net Assets in US Bitcoin ETF surpassed gold funds for the first time on December 16 according to 2K 33 research on December 16 the US Bitcoin funds collectively broke $129 billion in assets under management surpassing US Gold ETF which held just shy of that figure according to k33 research's head of research betond the AUM figure includes spot btcf as well as ETF that track bitcoin's performance using Financial derivatives such as Futures said Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric balunis Tom one of the big themes that we just wanted to point out for for viewers and listeners out there was this idea that cryptocurrencies will still be a focus given the focus of the incoming Trump Administration we know that you're bullish on on many aspects of crypto but I wonder if you might take us through where you see the best relative performance in that crypto landscape in 2025 investors uh you know at our firm for for the last eight and a half years we have recommended us an allocation to crypto including Bitcoin or Bitcoin in ethereum um that allocation probably should be much higher in 2025 because the regulatory landscape is is actually becoming more friendly so I think Bitcoin still has to be at the core of someone's Holdings and I see I see Bitcoin getting to around 250,000 next year but that would allow ethereum which um you know is around 3500 now to to probably do even better you big ethereum could get to 5,000 or 6,000 next year and I think this is also probably the year where there's what we call All Season where there's things like salana and other alt coins do extremely well Tom if you feel as though and this is again relatively speaking that that Bitcoin is a commodity and that some of the companies that leverage those Commodities could be in play as well much like gold and gold miners what types of companies are going to be the ones that benefit the most from that crypto expansion if it were to hypothetically happen um 2024 G has given us insights if we look at the best performing equities that are related to bitcoin what we would call leveraged stories to bitcoin meaning that they're either acquiring Bitcoin as a treasury asset or their leverage to the price have done very well and that would be things like micro strategy uh similar scientific and coinbase um and there are other companies that are sort of doing what Michael sailor would call the Bitcoin standard like mea but I'd say investors portfolio if they're especially a large cap focus a company like micro strategy you know it gives you really good exposure to bitcoin retail investors are famously always laid to the party flocking to bitcoin only when it smashes through glamorous Milestones like $100,000 this Christmas the dinner table will offer more than turkey and pudding expect curious relatives to test your crypto Savvy and ask how to join the bull market are you ready for the spotlight this festive season your orange pill credentials are or on trial will you dazzle with eloquent arguments on decentralization and monetary sovereignty or crumble like a stalman pine and just stammer number go up under the holiday Spotlight Fe not here are some tips to steer your family and friends through the crypto conversation one of the first things you must do is make sure they know that any action taken is their responsibility inexperienced investors might mistake you for a crypto Guru but let's be honest that's probably not the case Chris Bur partner Adventure Capital firm placeholder and former blockchain products lead at RK invest put it no one knows anything for sure about markets the only people you know for sure are lying are those who say they know for sure when crypto markets Roar in a full-blown Bull Run everyone feels like the next Warren Buffett stay humble admit you don't have all the answers remind them not to follow your footsteps blindly like a herd of sheep caution is key even the frenzy
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