저자: TonyBattista · 외국인
요약 보기
AVGO 옵션 거래 설명: 변동성 지표 점검 후 실적 없는 AVGO를 대상으로 콜 스큐를 활용한 broken wing butterfly 전략 소개. 발언자는 AVGO에 방향성 의견은 없으며 굳이 말하자면 횡보~약간 하락으로 본다고 언급. 전략 구조와 리스크 관리(매수여력, 델타 조정) 위주 설명.
다듬은 글
welcome to option trades today I'm Tony the bad Batiste and I've got a trade idea for you today June 29th 2023 let's first take a look at the market even the S PS are up 12.50 a relatively small move uh you'll notice here when I look at the high and low we've had about a 26 dollar range on the evening s PS if you go to the e-mini S PS on the trade page you can see on the right hand side here what the one day expected move here is it's around 26 dollars so we're right at or around the expected move uh as by implied volatility now applied volatility forward slash VX that's what I like to look at it doesn't have any options but you can look at the chart and you can see volatility is going much lower has been going lower for days and days and days today is the first day we have volatility upticking ever so slightly by 16 cents with three of the indices the Dow the Russell and the e-mini S PS all higher only the NASDAQ down small typically volatility will go lower as the market goes higher and higher as the market goes lower this is the first time we've seen volatility kind of catch a little bit of a bit now at 1516 relatively low is a small move of one percent higher even though the market is also higher significant I don't think so but it is something to look at all right what are we going to look at to trade today well I always go to my watch list I've kind of since there are a lot of earnings coming out I've gone away from the high option volume list and kind of concentrate on the S P 100 list this is a pre uh list that we have already in our market indices you can just go right down here and click on s p 100 and this will bring up this uh these stocks for you the s p 100 the 100 most capitalized stocks why am I doing that well twofold utility is low so I'm looking for stocks that are more uh widely traded I don't want to get in too many um in a stock that's not liquid although I am going to trade something that's a little bit funky for you today so I'm gonna eat my words here in a quick second but anyway I went to the s p 100 list I also since earnings are looming everywhere and you can see here on the left hand on the right hand side how all these stocks basically have earnings coming uh in July and August so instead of clicking on the ivx 5-day change which I like to look at I like to have that from high to low I want to put on a trade that has volatility expanding over the over the last five days you can see there are many stocks that are expanding over the last five days plus I like to see some some IV ranks expanding too which you do have in some of these but the big caveat is earnings looming in any trade that I would do in August so I'm going to this time search by stocks that don't have earnings and you only have a few here now the one that I end up picking on I did look at Costco to place a trade in there but I ended up going in avgo now I'll tell you why when I place the trade about a half an hour ago volatility was up small over the last five days but it hadn't gone down you can see it's unchanged over the last five days it has an ivy rank of 14 which isn't uh that good but it is one of the higher unless you throw it out if allows you put an oracle there it is one of the higher ones that does not have earnings also I like to look at what volatility has been doing as opposed to just on the ivx five-day change I have it down here on my chart you can get this this ivr TW which is implied volatility rank tasty Works high and low the the red and I have mine red and green you could change yours to what you want by just clicking on these indicators and then adding this ivr TW click save and it will be on the bottom of your charts too if you would like to see that ivr in a graph form on the bottom all right avgo a stock that I do not trade that much um you can see here that it was going pretty much sideways for quite some time made a nice high run here avgo on the strategy that I'm going to use which is a broken wing butterfly you typically like to have skew on the side that you're doing the butterfly why because well I'll show you right now um let's go let's just take a look the stock is 860.
let's go down by sixty dollars to the 800s those 800 puts are trading for let's just call it twelve dollars and twenty cents let's go up sixty dollars to nine twenty those calls equal distance away sixty dollars away from this the stock price is right now are trading 15 and let's call it 50 cents 40 cents markets are a little bit wide in here you can see there's almost three dollars worth of call SKU in avgo and avgo does not have earnings until August 31st which is after the August 18th expiration so no uh earnings and call SKU now you can certainly put on uh an undefined risk trade but in an 860 dollar stock that's going to use a lot of buying power so you're limiting everything that you're doing you're trying to limit risk and also put yourself in an advantageous uh case for the strategy that you're using so I don't have a directional opinion in avgo uh on I guess if uh if you had to put uh if you had to make me come up with a with a with a direction on it I would go you know sideways to slightly lower would be my call and with call skew in here it really sets up nicely for a broken wing butterfly we like call skew or at least I do on a broken butterfly because the options that I'm selling are a little bit fatter um and that make that makes the the broke wing butterfly trade a little bit richer um than we would because I'm buying one call spread and selling another let me show you what I'm doing I'm buying the 9 20 calls one time and I'm selling the 940 calls two times now you can see that spread is trading for six dollars and eighty cents but it's going to use almost twenty six thousand dollars in buying power and with the average size account somewhere between forty and eighty thousand dollars that's way too much buying power to use so a defined an undefined risk trade is nothing that we can look at um in this podcast at least so I like to buy one spread it's twenty dollars wide and I'd like to sell one spread that's forty dollars wide two times the size so instead of going to the nine sixties which would be a regular butterfly pay a dollar ten you can see my probably profit is ten percent I'm gonna widen it out and go to the nine eighties now I'm only using nineteen hundred dollars in buying power I have an 85 percent pop a small Delta negative position 278 I was able to get filled at um I believe a dollar with the stock up twelve dollars in change uh 12.80 and I was able to get filled at 86 seven cents I believe let's take a quick look because I forget let's go right here to our um follow page pardon me go down to our follow page click on Bob the trader you'll notice I have these in here I gotta feel that 89 cents I'm sorry 89 cents with the stock at 857 and a half just about where it is now and when it was at 860 I was able to get filled at a dollar just showing you that this spread moves about 10 cents on every two or three dollar move today um that you get on the stock NOW the Stock's already up uh ten dollars and change today all right so why do I go uh twice as wide well I'm risking two to make one what's the little kicker in here well the little kicker in here is if the stock closes at 9 40 you actually make two thousand dollars because you're long the 920 940 call spread one time I know it says one by two but you loan that one time at 940 that would be worth twenty dollars so you make two thousand dollars the call spread that you're short the 949.80 would be worth nothing you short that one time so it'll be a full profit at two thousand dollars what am I really looking to make here I don't know 50 cents to to a to to 80 cents uh would be about as uh home run on this type of trade what kind of Defense would I have on this trade well you could sell any kind of put spread that's twenty dollars wide and you wouldn't be using any more buying power so if this this spread which basically has um three short Deltas to it ever gets to about 10 or 15 Deltas then I'll look to sell a twenty dollar wide put spread and I'll look to pick up another five or seven long Deltas by doing that and not using any buying power um let's go to the put spread just so I could show you um that that how call SKU affects that trade um so we were doing the 920 which was around sixty dollars away at a time let's just go to the 800 and let's go to the 780s that's one by two you can already see that it's collecting five dollars in change where we're collecting over six dollars before and then let's go um forty dollars uh wider than this let's go down to the 740s uh you're using the same just under two thousand dollars and you know what making a little bit of a liar out of me the credit here is 75 cents now remember it's basically zero bid at a dollar fifty so markets are a little bit wide so the call skew the call broken wing butterfly with the call skew is probably trading about 30 cents higher maybe 25 cents higher than the put spread equal probability of success equal Deltas obviously on the opposite side but at least that's a good way for you to look at um the difference between call SKU and puts you I think in a in a product that has better markets tighter markets um that you'll be able to see that uh SKU in the trades a little bit easier I did the call spread because I'm slightly neutral to bearish if you're slightly neutral to bullish then maybe you'll be looking at the put spread that I have up on the screen but everything that you should be looking at you can find a tasty trade the number one brokerage firm in the universe help us keep the lights on here open up an account at tastytrade today or listen just move an account from an existing broker's firm we love that too foreign
Comments 0