저자: EdYardeni · 외국인
요약 보기
인플레이션은 CPI 기준 약 2%로 둔화 중이며 고용·경기는 양호하다. Fed는 올해 2~3회 인하를 말했고 현재 금리는 정상화 수준이라 서두를 필요가 없다. 2022년 11월 ChatGPT 이후 AI 테마로 '포효하는 2020년대'가 시작됐고, 엔비디아가 이를 주도한다. 시장 급등(melt up)에 대한 우려가 있으나 연말 S&P500 5400을 전망한다.
다듬은 글
with Ed yardeni president of yardeni research and half the time when we we have you on Ed you whatever the uh the overreaction of of the day is you kind of bring us back to to to the mean and I guess you'll probably do that with with some calm today uh as well we may not get seven rate you feeling that we may not get seven rate Cuts but uh you think inflation is trending lower Maybe maybe it'll be uneven and the economy is doing pretty well um but so we're somewhere in the middle between panicking on on either side well Joe you covered everything I was going to say yeah look I I I think inflation has continued to come down the CPI both core and headline excluding shelter is around 2% right now and that's on a year-over-year basis uh there tends to be uh an effort by Economist to micro analyze the inflation numbers and looking at auto insurance and so on and uh the fact is the Fed really has to focus on the overall inflation rate they can't control individual components and the overall inflation rate is still moderating the econom is great uh the labor market is great I know some people just uh I get people disagreeing with me on that but that's the macroeconomic data looks just fine and so from the fed's point of view I've believed their story they said they were going to cut by two to three times this year not by five to seven and I thought that they wouldn't do it in the first half of the year because the econom is doing fine why mess with success inflation's coming down the economy strong the labor Market's doing well and now we've got the roar ring 2020s in the stock market with led by Nvidia so let's say that just to try to figure out whether there's things to worry about I started the opposite way and that that was yeah a economy is great as long as inflation's under control but the minute the fit the minute the FED starts worrying about you know the stop and start uh disaster of this 70s that that's in the back of their mind all the time and and maybe we're not headed for recession until they get so nervous that they do cause one from from thinking that they needed to get down to 2% right you that maybe maybe the economy never you know it's not night follows day there will be a recession maybe it's always a policy mistake you don't think that they will make that that mistake well recessions are usually caused in the past anyways by something breaking in the financial system so you get a financial crisis which then becomes a credit Crunch and that's what causes recessions and so yes indeed we had a a financial crisis last year in March I mean we it we could have had a run on the banks but the fed came in so quickly with a liquidity facility that they averted a credit Crunch and averted a recession uh I think they've done a good job here and I think there's I agree with them there's absolutely no rush to lower interest rates and while most economists have been uh very upset about a possibility of a recession or something significantly breaking because after all I mean the FED funds rates up 525 basis points I think the FED has not only tightened I think it's Al also normalized interest rates are back to normal and I the economy lived with these rates before I think it could live with them again I think it's actually healthy for the economy to have a an interest rate that's is good for investors in terms of risk-free investing and is good in terms of allocating Capital yeah people forget that point I think Ed that somehow we did normalize the economy didn't fall off a cliff if there is a there is some type of of break in the future we've got some uh room to lower rates with dry powder money money has a cost again and and assets are being priced more realistically you know when when rates are little high so there's a lot of lot of positive uh lot of positive yeah a lot of positive things to do so that makes you in terms of the S&P for this year would you be surprised with the if it performed like it did in 2023 well I find myself now worrying about a melt up um I I like slow civilized bull markets I don't like stampedes the problem with melt UPS is by definition they're followed by meltdowns but for now uh you know it's the Roaring 2020s as I said it all really started on November 30th 2022 uh when AI when open AI introduced chat GPT we've AI has been around for a while but suddenly just took off as an investment theme tremendous amount of money is being thrown at this and uh I think some of that is going to pay off in better productivity so again that that looks pretty good 5400 on the S&P 5400 on the S&P by year end so to recap guys Ed yard Denny says this is the Roaring 2020s man that's the first time I've heard that that's a massive call the major averages are on Pace for their fourth straight month guys we've known this they're still holding up there's slight fears over the market melt up because there's normally followed by market meltdown inflation is trending lower but will be uneven path down from here he says why mess with success referring to cutting rates in a strong economy he applauds the FED for what they've done so far Ed says interest rates are quote back to normal says it's good that money has a cost again if something breaks in the economy in the future we have a lot of positive things to bring it back up again we can lower rates we can cut cost and we can raise earnings guys he said it's the Roaring 2020s and his price target for the S&P 500 is 5400 by year end hope you guys enjoyed the video catch you in the next one
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