저자: 미상 · 외국인
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3분기 변동성 급증 속 S&P500 사상 최고 마감 임박, VIX 30%대로 이례적 동반 상승. 항만 노조 파업이 공급망·경기침체 우려를 키우고, 이스라엘-이란 미사일 충돌 및 핵확산 리스크가 겹쳐 있음. 고용·물가 지표는 혼조. 금·채권·비트코인 등 헤지 자산으로 자금 이동 관찰. 결론적으로 연착륙 또는 제3차 세계대전·경기침체 중 한쪽 기로라는 불확실성 강조.
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well holy smokes talk about Market volatility this is an insane insane time to be involved in markets first we're going to talk about what's going on this morning with Israel and some fed speak and other information but first I want to give you a quick reminder of how crazy just the last 3 months have been listen to some of this the S&P 500 is poised to close out the quarter 5% at Fresh all-time highs while the vix is 30% over a 17 handle that would be the first time that has ever happened where the market rallied 5% at a time when volatility is also up so in English things are going like this and things are ending up high it this is unprecedented listen to this the AI winners basket per UBS in the quarter literally went down 22% in one quarter up 18% down 133% then up 16% all within in the span of just one quarter we also had the largest decline in 2-year treasury yields since September of 2001 yes recessionary times you had one of the largest defensive moves with utilities and reats up over 15% you've also had gold ripping 14% best quarter since 2016 and the largest in uh unversioned the yield curve since the first quarter of 2009 these are some crazy moves that we're seeing here and the reality is we had two assassination attempts last quarter we had a president who quit his reelection campaign now you've got Insanity happening with the Port strike which just started taking place yesterday we have a I won't rehash all of the things that we already talked about on the Port strike because I have a full video on the Port strike just look at it on my channel so you already know some of the basics that are going on but the strike began at midnight you know the doc workers are demanding obviously more pay I think they want about 77% more pay uh employers have offered about 50% more pay when you hear the names by the way it gets confusing the international long shoreman Association that's the union those are the workers the Ila and the United States Maritime Alliance that's the employer uh so I know that gets a little confusing folks but I mean the the type of red Ric that you're getting out of the Union boss is I mean if you're in a union exactly what you want your union boss to say but if you're an economist who's like oh my gosh we don't need more stuff to drive us into a recession this would be exactly what you don't want a union boss to say I'll pull up the video of this Union boss if you haven't seen it yet it's Absolut like this is the kind of stuff like if somebody wanted to make a movie that was just called volatility like these are all the things that would happen you know short of another pandemic like Iran threatening to launch a ballistic missile at at Israel uh and that is apparently now imminent with a missile that could arrive in the span of 12 minutes are you freaking kidding me it's crazy but listen to this Union boss for a moment this is this is pretty wild too uh volume's right today's world it's changing into the future they're not making millions no more they're making billions and they're spending it fast as they make it I want a piece of half of my men cuz when they made their most money was during coic when my men had to go to work on those peers every single day when everybody stayed home and went to work not my men they died out there with the virus we all got sick with the virus we kept them going from Canada to maina Texas Great Lakes Puerto Rico now the Bahamas everybody went to work during Co nobody stayed home well I want to be conf for that I'm not asking for the world they know what I want they know what I want and if they don't well then I have to go into the street and we have to fight for what we rightfully deserve these people today don't know what a strike is right when my men hit the streets from Maine to Texas every single port will lock down you know what's going to happen I'll tell you first week be all over the news every night boom boom second week guys who sell cars can't sell cars because the cars ain't coming in off the ships they get laid off third week malls start closing down they can't get the goods from China they can't sell clothes they can't do this everything in the United States comes on a ship they go out of business construction workers get laid off because the materials aren't coming in the steel bill is not coming in the Lumber's not coming in they lose their job everybody's hating the long shaan now because now they realize how important our jobs are now I have the president screaming at me I'm putting a t Harley on you go ahead T heartley quickly the TA Harley would be a way of forcing striking workers back to work when it's for economic or national security concerns this by the way what he's about to say is wild because he basically says F your ta heartly act will'll just sandbag crazy listen to it and then we'll talk implication means I have to go back to work for 90 days that's a cooling off period do you think when I go back for 90 days those men are going to go to work on that Pier it's going to cost the money the company's money to pay their salaries while they go went from 30 moves an hour maybe to eight they're going to be like this who's going to win here in the long run you're better off sting down and let's get a contract and let's move on with this world and today's world I'll you I will you and you have no idea what that means nobody yikes so I mean obviously a really Stern warning here from a union boss again if you're a union member this is exactly what you would want you you look at this person you go yes tell it like it is obviously employers are like oh my gosh profit margins have gotten squeezed uh the economy slowed down things have gotten tighter we need automation you know was the same kind of fights that we've seen in the 50s against the innovation of the container we we've we've seen anti- Innovation fights uh before from from manual laborers and and I get it uh but the point is this now comes at the same time as Israeli forces are conducting operations in Lebanon they've issued now evacuation warnings to 26 different villages in uh Southern Lebanon uh Israel is conducting uh strikes within the region specifically uh trying to avoid cities so they say but you know you've got Israelis quite frankly a lot of videos of israeli's leveling areas and towns uh inside of uh of the West Bank and people are like bro this is this is excessive here and so uh however it's portrayed doesn't matter one side's always going to view Israel as excessive and Israel is always going to view it as we're just responding but the point is Iran's now potentially suggesting hey it's time to go intercontinental ballistic missile or maybe even short range ballistic missile uh War here which then begs the question if Israel gets hit really hard oh yeah listen to this Israel Israel military spokesman says potential missile attack from Iran expected to be widespread this isn't like one missile and then they shoot it down like this is expected to be in my opinion a vol of short- range ballistic missiles and if Israel gets pummeled to where like you the system's not perfect it doesn't actually take these uh take all these uh short-range ballistic missiles down in that case unfortunately there is a risk that Israel turns around and says f it bring out the Strategic nukes against Iran which The Economist just this morning wrote a piece about how after the decapitation of Hezbollah Iran could be racing for a nuclear bomb uh well that's not great uh so now you have this potential risk that you end up having a World War III style nuclear warfare in the Middle East and then you potentially have Russia and China getting involved this is how you get to World War uh potentially trying to create peace but then they have to take sides in order to to potentially try to uh contribute to uh resolving issues then you potentially also lead to Saudi Arabia Egypt and turkey responding or at least building their nuclear Arsenal now what you end up having is nuclear proliferation rather than nonproliferation operation okay then we're not going to care anymore about iPhone 16's not selling as well we're not going to care uh so much uh about uh Bond Traders buying the dip in bonds after the contraction in factory jobs we're just not going to care about these things anymore uh we're going to be in a position where we look at this and go oh hot Tua this ain't good uh now all of a sudden when we look at the economic calendar we go yeah sure we have had a joltz report that was decent this morning uh but uh you know it it came in hotter than expected with an upward revision uh but what do you what do you end up with you end up with uh ISM Manufacturing employment that came in way lower than expected uh um let me see here okay yeah there we go uh okay so um yeah anyway so you have this ah this just it's just crazy you know this the data this morning is just so wild quite frankly it's so wild because you're in an environment where the data is just so unclear because we don't know what to believe some data is going to be revised other data is not going to be revised some data is good some data is bad we don't know what to believe all we know is we have more uncertainty so ISM employment goes down but jolt says there are more openings but at the same time time construction spending is coming down like this is just this is a mess of freaking data at the same time as you have this Israel crisis and you have a strike going on a worker strike this is crazy this is like if you were going to write a story about how recessions are started this is it the worker strike goes through the election would be very bad now it's possible the worker strike goes through the election because the Biden Administration might not want to intervene until the election because they don't want to come across this anti-un but if they you don't intervene then they flirt with the idea of potentially creating a recession which isn't good of course they could say oh well hey fed you mop it up that's not good so the longer this strike goes on the worse I don't actually think it'll be Consumer Price inflationary uh I actually think that consumer prices will stay pretty stable mostly because companies don't have pricing power anymore there's a limit to how much you can raise prices people just are not willing to pay prices uh that are high anymore Good News by the way though we do have a coupon code # jobs that expires this Friday you can see my trades in this environment our long thesis uh that we did this morning in the course member live stream and you get lifetime access to that so you pay once it's like 500 bucks it's not a lot you pay once you're in forever you're in the community you get to chat with everybody in the community you get to be a part of the community you get to listen to the fundamental analysis that I do on a daily basis you name it so the data today was just hyper clear along with all the other uncertainties we've seen is why we're seeing such a movement uh a lot of people are ironically fleeing to well maybe unironically I should say uh unironically fleeing to uh gold selling Bitcoin going to gold and uh going to bonds you know bonds up quite a bit bond yields down which uh now we're in an environment where you actually have uh you know evidence that shows hey wow okay having Hedges is a good thing for a port folio on down dayss like this people always think like oh if you have a hedge that means uh you just you you're only a shorter no you could also have calls that are hedges but anyway uh like a call on gold or a call on something else like some of the the hedges that I like but uh a lot of uncertainty here we'll see what happens with Israel and Iran I will keep you up to date I wouldn't be surprised if they try to pull something off honestly during the debate the VP debate that might be the time to do it it's kind of dirty but it might happen as they usually like to strike at night too time in Israel right now it's 7:03 p.m.
in Israel like it's just starting to get dark the window opens at night uh then uh data this morning hyper confusing The Oddities that we're seeing in the environment in terms of like how volatile things are very high but then you also have to balance this with hey recognize that uh there's there's so much uncertainty that sometimes this these levels of uncertainty can actually breed opport opportunity if we don't end up having a recession maybe these are all just by the dips I mean look Nvidia is down 32% you know is it to buy the dip I don't know we're going to have a recession or not Samsung's apparently laying off thousands of workers and now there talks about you know potentially a certain gb200 or whatever uh server chip getting delayed by Nvidia I I don't know that that really actually matters or means anything but uh it's a wild time and I encourage you to be careful out there protect yourself protect your portfolio uh we do expect to get Tesla deliveries tomorrow morning then we'll have the robo tax event I'll be covering the um debate tonight live so come join the channel and then as far as other economic news tomorrow morning at 5:15 so a little earlier we will get the ADP employment change so come for that as well followed by obviously a jobs report on Friday unemployment claims and all that on Thursday thank you so very much for being here folks buckle up because this is wild we could be on the brink of a soft Landing an election being over and a lot of uncertainties going away and no Wars or we could be on the brink of World War 3 and a recession that's pretty extrem o
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