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파월 연준 의장 발언 3가지 경고 해석: ①노동시장 지표가 GDP보다 경기침체를 잘 예측하는데 현재 고용은 약화 중 ②50bp 인하가 연착륙 확신을 높였냐는 질문에 물가 낙관으로만 답함 ③QCEW 노동시장 수정치가 3월까지만 반영. 향후 고용·ISM·CPI 지표 결과에 따라 시장 방향이 갈릴 것이라 주장. 강의 홍보 및 소소한 시황 코멘트 다수.
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wow Jerome Powell just gave us three warnings I have not yet heard Jerome Powell talk about and boy oh boy we have got to talk about these three warnings because as po wowi was dishing them out I was trading with the folks in the stocks and sight group check it out over at meetkevin.com pulled an 81% over 15 to 20K return right there during the Powell meeting and if you want to be part of it you want to see how I talked about entry you want to see how I talked about I think it's consolidating here and it's about to bounce at time to get out of here cuz it was short uh go check it out uh the Discord and uh in the community over at meetkevin.com price will be going up on Friday so what were the three warnings that Powell gave so I want to start with those warnings and then I'm going to get into the generic stuff okay so let's start with the warnings first drone Powell talks about the revisions which we went into this wondering is J pal going to talk about the revisions and he did he talked about how usually GDI is your best indicator for the economy and it was diverging from GDP where GDP was higher and gross domestic income was lower and that was revised up so we said that removed a downside risk from the economy which is good because now you know it doesn't look like consumers are spending beyond their means but their personal savings rate is actually okay and they're spending what they could be spending without economic concern this is good that's actually not the bad news item but it leads into the first warning that he gave he says right now there is a tension though between spending and GDP data and the labor market consider this for a moment the Atlanta fed real now GDP sits at uh uh you know what is it uh 3.1% which is which is remarkably high and that's really good but the labor market is substantially weakening and Jerome Powell gave the first of three warnings that I have not seen him give before the first warning was the labor market gives better data than GDP in fact the labor market is better at predicting downturns and so there is a tension today between strong GDP and spending data and weaker labor market data that was a really big warning now does end up saying the labor market isn't right now indicating a big downturn well no du Po's going to say that because you know the second Jerome Powell says hey by the way everything's going to sh9t then you're actually going to have a really rapid market crash it's going to be terrible so of course he can't say that of course he has to like anytime he sees bad data he kind of has to go no no no no no no no of course but he's giving us a warning war in he is giving us a heads up here and if you pay attention you'll see all three of these warnings I mean I'm going to signpost them for you okay so warning one labor market gives better data than GDP based on prior recessions and prior downturns and right now there's attention we have higher spending and GDP data and worse labor market data hm interesting okay that's warning number one warning number two he says look we are re-calibrating due to strengthen the economy not weakness and then he's asked which sounds bullish right I mean he's HW toing us uh and he's asked did the 50 basis point cut increase your confidence in a soft Landing now the answer here by default should be yes I mean it increased my thoughts of a soft Landing I'm like if they're going to move fast on 50 BPS let's go soft Landing by the dip f it let's go they're going to cut rates to preserve a soft Landing but that was actually not what Jerome Powell did I'm going to try to reenact it here I'm going to suck at it but short of actually pulling up the video he's asked did the 50bp cut increase your confidence of a soft Landing uh the cut reflects our optimism on 2% inflation what what that's scary okay when you combine that with him saying the labor market data is more important to the fate of the economy right now than JDP and the labor market data is weakening and did it increase your confidence in a soft Landing it increases our confidence on inflation oh hello that was like the biggest second warning I could have ever freaking seen right here from japal and I don't know that markets are paying attention to this uh but we'll talk markets and some of the other things that were said in just a moment but the warning number one labor market is more important than GDP number two do you have increased optimism in soft ltic oh that was weird that was it was just weird maybe we'll pull it up towards the end of this video and the third one okay we got to talk about the third one I just do want to mention go to meetkevin.com use that coopa code if you haven't yet remember you get lifetime access and I want to shout out some of y'all because I really appreciate those of you who just joined uh those of you who joined during the live stream uh you could go get to see the trade that we made while it was live uh muhamad David pradep karik uh those sound like they rhyme Chris Sid uh Valerie uh actually got somebody over here uh who who just joined for an all access full-blown set of courses as well uh thank you all so much for joining really appreciate you remember you get lifetime access to these courses the new content I add my course member live streams every day and then anytime you want to see one one of these events is going on what's Kevin trading you could see it too no guarantees obviously we can we could only make money there there's that's impossible there are going to be red times there are going to be red days uh and I try to share those on the channel as well but anyway let's focus on the third warning the third warning is that labor market Market revisions were only through March a lot of people may not have been paying attention to this but maybe this will ring a bell for you remember when he talked about the qcw revisions Ah that's called the quarterly census of employment and wages and it is a revisions adjustment the qcw only revised the labor market through March okay well what about April May June June July August and September we don't have revisions for those 6 months yet is that six uh five we don't have revisions for those months yet and so these are three really big warnings from Powell now what else did he say well some other things that he said were uh many indicators show that the labor market is presently solid right this is an important thing to remember is right now the trajectory is down okay let's say this is a solid labor market where my hand hand is and this is the trajectory take a picture you take a picture right here and you're like H it's actually pretty good right now I'll read off what JP said unemployment rate within range of natural rate prime age workers near historic High women's participation rate near all-time Highs real wages increasing in line with gains in productivity we've never heard him read that crap off ever he's never talked about women's particip a rate come on folks he's never talked about this trash it's like he's lying through his teeth to try to make to to convince us that everything's fine but it's CU they're taking a snapshot like this well unless they create a floor which I don't think they're going to be able to with a 50 BP cut that's lagging especially since the higher end of the yield curve is going up and you're seeing more inversion today than you've seen before I think we're at like 14 basis points inverted right now there's not actually a floor there so there's the entire potential of the labor Market continue and go and then you're in recession so I mean look my opinion is much like what J house says is just watch the next two labor reports if we get 140 140 on the labor reports okay maybe we've stabilized maybe we have found a floor if we get 130 120 100 okay we're not stabilizing we're and it's bad you know if we start getting uh 150 160 170 then it's a sign that we're going that was a close one I me like that's that's basically what Powell's like he's like he's like a little kid playing with his hands right now uh job openings moving down but just above one again that's the snapshot that was rarely the case prior to 2019 labor markets have cooled we do not believe we need any further labor market cooling inflation expectations remain anchored the economy is solid goal is to restore price stability economic conditions set the table for further easing the goal in the past uh you know over the past few years has been get inflation down without a painful rise in unemployment and so far we've been able to accomplish that that is a form of declaring Victory which is dangerous though because you might start creating some oopsy dupsies here on jobs if the economy evolves broadly as expected we will move towards neutral that actually LED uh yields to move up because pal started suggesting that hey you know if you look at the SCP people were pricing in basically 25 and 25 left and so uh it might even mean we skip a meeting that was hawkish so you had markets briefly sell off you had yields go up you had some turl tumult over there in markets for a moment but the reality is if you look at the three big warnings drum Powell gave all all this stuff about the summary of economic projections doesn't matter he himself tells you that it's not the summary of economic projections that matters it's the incoming data that matters and the incoming data that we get in the next jobs report the next CPI report and the next job job's report all before the FED Meeting those are going to matter the most and so you really need to mark your calendar for what's coming up over here if you have not done yet so please mark your calendar for this right now it is it is critically important okay do this now okay that was like very untimely and kind of late but whatever w jilt data comes out tomorrow at 7:00 a.m.
California time along with construction spending month over month S&P Global us manufacturing pmis come out tomorrow at 6:45 California time I'll be streaming live on the meet Kevin Market live Channel where you can see me for free Yap about the market in the morning tomorrow at 7: a.m. we will also get ISM Manufacturing and prices paid prices paid are expected to be expanding at 53.5 with manufacturing expected to be in contraction below 50 at 47.5 that would be a slight uptick actually on manufacturing from the prior read in a slight downtick on prices page which would actually be good if we actually got those numbers on Wednesday we expect the ADP employment report to come in at 125 which would actually be an uptick from the 99 in the prior report on Thursday we expect initial jobless claims at 222 and continuing claims at 1830 both of these numbers relatively stable though remember continuing claims and joess claims tend to lag then uh we will also get ISM Services uh index at 51.6 and price is paid at 56.5 uh both uh well price is paid decelerating a little bit on the forecast and the overall index accelerating on10th of a basis one/ tenth of a percent so not a big deal then on Friday which is 104 October 4th that is a coupon expiration day at 11:59 p.m.
we will be raising the price of the course again I do raise the price as more people get into the course and we add value over time including the full archive you get of 150,000 jobs that is actually higher than the prior release of 142,000 obviously we expect both of those numbers to be rigged and we'll expect to see a nice bloop revision down but if the trend is up on the monthly figure at least that would be an indication of better so if we get something like south of 130 markets are going to get really pissed and start pricing in recession again if we get a beat and we get something like 160 170 well markets might actually be very euphoric and you might see yields move higher expecting the unemployment rate to remain stable at 4.2% expecting average hourly earnings to come in on a month over month AT3 a slight deceleration from last month's point4 so that's the data coming up uh and I think it's kind of important to watch some of that data uh okay cool everybody's all right uh yeah we use these radios by the way I got radios all over the place but it's mostly because when my team hits me up and they're like hey we got a course member with a question or we got a you know uh you know client for stock hack with a financial advisory question or somebody wants to sign up but they have a question or whatever my team can ping me but they also ping each other on here and I just pay attention uh so anyway uh okay so let me quickly see inversion right now is that true are we at 14 basis points only of uninverted that's pretty low checking checking ah 14.82% course blah blah blah I'm actually surprised you don't have the suits pointing out the three warnings that I gave uh wealth of talent collecting data blah blah blah blah blah I thought those three warnings were crystal clear but you know I don't I don't think uh the soo see it but I mean I thought it was blatantly obvious labor market gets better data than GDP and the labor market is weakening uh then we had okay come on uh then we had uh did the 50 BP increase your confidence of soft Landing big pause that was awkward okay very awkward uh and then of course the uh we don't have the revisions yet on the qcw which is also a warning because you know we really need to know what's been happening over the last uh few uh few months here so uh very important uh let me see if I can get the uh Powell's reaction there we'll briefly look I don't know if I'll be able to find it because it's probably just going to take too long to get it but uh I should have marked it oh well uh yeah I don't think I'll be able to get it uh I remember kind of what he looked like in it he sort of looked down but you know that happens a lot so it's it's not going to be very clear where it is let's see what comments people have uh khed says Kevin is shorting uh no I'm not you're a liar and a scumbag uh I have I have literally no short exposure with the exception of a tiny tiny short Bitcoin exposure which is actually doing really well today uh so you know I I I think people think when I'm a bear that I'm shorting I'm not you I shorted for like 10 minutes with a put option because there was a trade opportunity somebody says not impressed by the walkie-talkies I don't really care what you're impressed by or not uh so it doesn't really matter so what do you guys thinking about BTC price remember BTC is a risk asset so it's going to move with risk assets let me see if this is the part and and um uh uh sound data sets just saying a level to ensure um no where if only I could find you're just going to probably have to just s of roll with me on that I suppose somebody could go through it themselves time of of um of a lot of trade issues and it was it was yeah geopolitical yeah it take too long to find it uh but anyway let me look at some other commentary here just because I want to include this here uh let's see here uh the strike you should see my video this morning on the strike employment data is flat or good I'm flipping bullish by Friday says Jeremiah yeah uh hey you know what if the unemployment data starts moving up that's great Kevin you just insulted a lot of women by saying the commo women's job participation is crap that's okay you're totally taking out of context what I said and it's like honestly scummy to take it out of context like that I'm saying Powell is listing a bunch of crap that he's never talked about before to try to make it seem like everything is okay and it's not this is not a comment about women how stupid do you have to be to think that I was making a comment about women you're taking something out of context and you're a numbnut for even suggesting that this the stupidest thing I've ever heard do you think I'm here to like I'm the biggest supporter of women ever uh freaking loser um so anyway contr F the trans transcript's not out yet uh let's see here what's your reasoning behind BTC short well it's it's really just a recessionary hedge right like it's a tiny tiny tiny position and uh there there are a few ways to hedge for a recession you could go long bonds uh and then you could short risk assets uh I think that uh Bitcoin is stuck in a pattern of hitting lower highs so I think the downside to a short BTC is somewhat low until we get confirmation that there's no recession and then of course you need to remove shorts right away right but I I basically don't uh you know uh uh think shorting broadly is a really good strategy right now uh let's see here Israel tank just rolled into Southern Lebanon thank you for saying that uh yeah that's that's not good the geopolitical iions are just are just continuing to rise uh and it's very bad unfortunately uh but uh you know that's that's what you get uh with uh mess with Israel right so somebody here says I know great analysis on everything ke going yeah uh let's see here how much of this was because he knows the data in the next two weeks it's possible he does know uh that that is something else to consider is it is possible that jpw does know that we're about to get some weak data and that's why he just three times gave us a very clear labor market warning uh and uh and I think that's uh uh it's it's worth paying attention to snowflakes melting fast in the chat Tesla under 200 in the near term your opinion Kevin um you really need a broader market movement to the downside I do think if you have a a recession uh Tesla probably does get hurt very substantially uh and its valuation is extremely high right now so uh yeah you have to be a little cautious about that uh so just takes one incident for geopolitics to get out of hand this is true you really you just have to watch Iran uh that's that's definitely an issue a thank you Patel appreciate that any videos about the Tesla 1010 event coming up yes I will uh I will uh make a 10 10 video somebody here says Kevin needs to drink more black coffee to increase his manhood what do you think this is huh it's all black coffee in there can I show it to you without spilling it all over my desk there it is you can see a little bit there with without me spilling black coffee baby black I like it black m I actually don't it's pretty disgusting but I'm on a challenge so I cut out the milk I know it's pretty lame pretty lame all right so I think that's pretty good how is the alcohol free challenge gun honestly pretty well uh I'll give you like a really for for those of you who are still here I'll give you quick synopsis uh of how I feel about that cuz I wrote it down yesterday because a good buddy of mine asked me about it so what I wrote is mornings are much easier I could wake up earlier substantially more easily I uh number one number two ironically my anxiety is lower I used to like drinking to lower my anxiety but now I just don't have the anxiety in the first place uh number three it mentally feels like I'm contributing to my weight challenge it's also physiologically true uh I also know it's very powerful optically for the children uh and then uh uh and then also just like business uh optic wise and career optic wise uh very very important so yeah anyway uh I appreciate yall uh what is this here Head and Shoulders on the weekly most of you are woke Bots says somebody in the chat okay let me see here oh dude I was literally just going to go to QQQ to look on the week chat and rather than writing in QQQ I wrote woke I got an error uh this is uh I don't know I don't know what what chart you're looking at looks a little messy a little messy uh anyway y all pretty funny pretty funny oil plays at these levels would you touch leverag plays I generally don't like leverag plays because they keep you in a hole I'd rather go for non-leveraged and then buy an option because like I can calculate Theta Decay but but the triple leveraged on volatility is just a bad idea but uh yeah I mean if you get an Iranian retaliation oil oil you know might see a spike but then there are also recessionary concerns you have to balance that with because if you go into recession oil goes down so it's there's not a clear Direction on oil which makes it less desirable for me whereas if there are geopolitical risks that could potentially cause a recession long bonds will go down or long bonds will go up in value uh and a recession will lead long bonds up in value if there's a stagflationary concern gold goes up if there's no stagflation no inflation and we don't go into recession well then you just want to be like you know growth stocks like NASDAQ uh to the Moon right and and Bitcoin honestly will do really well uh so somebody here says Henry says Kevin chill my man there's always going to be idiots saying idiotic things on message boards just skip over those don't let it boil blood what are you trying to say Henry I'm just kidding I appreciate you I I I do I I uh I do uh sometimes uh let the com I I just I treat every comment as a human and and uh it's bad because that it it can it can affect the psyche uh anyway uh again shout out to those of you joining the stocks and sight group and the courses on building your wealth thank you so much for those of you who support go check it out at me kevin.com you pay once you get lifetime access uh also post on the August 2nd live stream and I will give you a wrench so you get a wrench in these uh public chats we love you by
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