저자: ChamathPalihapitiya · 외국인
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결론: 챠마스는 2022년 8월 시점에서 시장 반등을 인정하면서도 금리 인상이 더 필요하고 상황은 더 나빠질 수 있다고 봤다. 단기 시장 전망: VIX가 10대 후반이면 변동성 매도(주식 매수 쪽)가 유리하고, 30대면 변동성 매수(주식 매도)가 유리하다는 과거 경험칙을 제시했다. 과거 수익 경험은 있었으나 앞으로 어떻게 될지는 모른다고 밝혔다. S&P500: 4000 부근까지 반등할 수 있다고 봤으나 자신이 틀렸다고 인정했다. 실제로는 4150 수준이며 4200~4300 가능성을 언급했다. 원유·에너지: 석유 수요 감소로 유가가 배럴당 87달러까지 내려왔고 가솔린 가격도 하락 중이라고 설명했다. OPEC의 증산 여력은 실질적으로 제한적이라고 평가했다. 금리·인플레이션: 과거 미국 CPI가 5% 이상일 때 연준금리가 같은 수준까지 오르지 않고 내려온 적이 없다고 했다. 금리를 균형금리의 두 배까지 올려야 할 수 있으며, 고금리 구간(10%대 후반 근처)에 진입할 수 있다고 봤다. 연준이 2023년 초 피벗할 것이라는 시장 기대에는 회의적이었다. 거시 리스크: 브라질 정치 불안, 소비자 신용 붕괴 등 여러 리스크가 시장을 흔들 수 있다고 봤다. 정부가 과잉 유동성을 흡수해야 하며, 빠르고 저렴하고 좋은 시대는 끝났다고 평가했다. 성장·비용 전망: 지속 성장은 가능하지만 금리와 인플레이션, 투입원가 상승을 감수해야 한다고 봤다. 연준이 공격적으로 빨리 금리를 올리는 편이 맞을 수 있다고 봤으나, 정치적으로 현실적이지 않아 점진적 인상이 이어질 것이라고 예상했다. 출연자 전망: 챠마스는 시장이 더 나빠질 수 있다고 보며, 연준 피벗 기대에 대해 신중한 입장을 보였다.
다듬은 글
so i don't know i mean you know you've made a lot of money this year by basically doing the following which is the exact opposite of everybody else when everybody else was freaking out had you bought you would have made a ton of money now everybody's like it's over and you can tell that by looking at the vix which is the volatility index [ath on the all in podcast talking about the future of the finance industry chamath believes that it's important to take both sides of an argument and intellectually reason why each side could be right people might be saying that the fed will yield by early 2023 and there is a clear expectation that rate increases will have to occur the other side of the argument begins with plenty of energy which chamath thinks is essential since it leads to the convergence of political and economic systems chamath says the best way to make tons of money this year is to check out the volatility index which is currently in the teens and this means buying short stocks let's listen to chamoth on the all in podcast as he talks about the cpi rates and how to combat inflation in the current market i think at the time initially i think i said you know it rallies to around four thousand i was a little off rally what rallies to four the s p yeah probably gets to 4 200 4 300.
look it's always important for me it's 41.50 today just so people know yeah it's always important from my perspective to just take the other side and just intellectually debate with oneself why the other side could be right so at this point right now what people would say is okay the fed's going to capitulate at the beginning part of 2023.
we have a pretty clear forecast for all the rate increases that have to happen everybody's doing the work that's necessary either raising prices cutting costs or doing both letting people go etc etc so maybe we're we're there but what's the other side of that well i think again as i've stated before the other side starts with energy and the reason why i think it's important is that it really is the conflation of an economic system and a political system using an instrument chamoth notes that the demand for oil has gone down because opec thought they could increase barrels to 600 000 per day which only two countries have been able to accomplish successfully chemoth has never seen a time in american history when the cpi is printed higher than five percent without fed funds rising to the same amount chemoth hopes this is just the expectation that proves the rule but a gigantic amount of data tells us we need to double the rates of what is believed to be the current equilibrium we're about to get into the high teens you have systematically it has been true that when the the vix is in the teens you tend to basically buy volatility which is essentially you get short stocks and when the vix is in the 30s you tend to basically sell volatility and you buy equities because we've hit the bottom if you've been doing that for the last year you've made a ton of money so there you have it i really don't know what's gonna happen from here but um i tend to think things still have to get a lot worse to flush everything through the system if you look at oil sacs um we are now down to uh 87 bucks for a barrel uh haven't been here since uh gosh looks like yeah february maybe and so and gas prices plummeting something going well in this regard what are your thoughts there's less demand the the the crazy sad thing about this whole thing with biden was that opec came back and they basically said we can increase like 600 000 barrels a day but the only two countries that are able to do it were i think kuwait and saudi and the total number of barrels is about a hundred thousand so with all the bluster and all of these you're right actually there's no it's because the interest rate increases are actually having an effect correct you would agree they seem to be doing something correct here with the 75 bips you know uh and taking it a little more seriously it's having an impact i'll say it again i've said it now five pods in a row we've never seen a moment in history in american history where when cpi has printed successively above five percent that it got under five percent without fed funds getting to that same number so we should all hope that this is the exception that proves the rule but there's an enormous amount of data that would tell you that we have to take rates to double what the equilibrium rate is thought to be right there's always stuff going on in markets and markets represent the collective sum of our wishes and expectations and also the realities this is why i think for me at least the way that i process this information is not trying to have an opinion on any one of those things because i just i find it too hard and i don't have enough depth of understanding of any of those things for me i'd rather go back to the historical trends because those i find a little bit easier to parse and whether any of those things are true so so the the real problem is that like if i go back to the historical artifacts have there been issues in the past the way that you know um freebird described it absolutely so this is why i think you can look at the fact that whenever there's inflation and whenever it's spiked this is what has had to happen by the fed is you have to take rates above that key five percent threshold when cpi is above five percent to break enough demand so that the economy is reset and i think that's where we are so instead of trying to figure out whether you know i mean the the brazil thing as an example that that friedrich said is crazy like he's basically you know he said publicly in a press release the army's on my side and it's ready to help me you know keep and stay and go just the crazy thing so what are you supposed to do the fighters need to take to the streets so what are you so what are you supposed to do in my opinion i'm like you know what a version of brazil has happened before i don't know enough history quite honestly to know the specifics of what happened then and how that could translate to now and i don't want to spend the time understanding what's going to happen in brazil right now i'd rather just say there are 20 or 30 things that could very much complicate the world economy i think the reality is that governments need to flush all this excess money out of the system so that we can really find out what equilibrium demand is and get back to normal that era of cheaper faster better is over and what comes with that is better national security but the cost of that better national security is higher prices less growth and there's nothing that we can do to avoid that i'm not sure i agree with the less growth i actually think that there's enough excess slack to be absorbed by all of this free money that i think you can still have sustained growth but it will come with higher interest rates and higher inflation and higher input costs everybody will have to do their part to absorb some of this but that's what's going to happen and i think we should just deal with the medicine as quickly as possible this is why the people that actually think that the fed should just be very aggressive and get this over with quickly i suspect on the margins are right the problem is they don't want to look at the historical artifact because historical fact would say wait i need to raise interest rates by another 250 basis points that's just way too disruptive for what the world is ready to to hear right now so we're going to incrementally plot along and i think what fredberg says is right which is that there's going to be a whack-a-mole that emerges that's going to tilt the markets then the consumer credit thing will implode that's going to tilt the markets then jair bolsonaro will try to take over brazil that'll tilt the markets and we'll go back to this you know inflationary fragmented deglobalized view of the world that just frankly takes higher interest rates to normalize jamaat states that when inflation occurs the fed must take rates above the central 5 threshold when the cpi is higher than 5 percent to break adequate demand and the economy can be restarted the government needs to remove all surplus money from the system to discover what the equilibrium demand is so everything can return to normal chamath believes the period of faster cheaper better is finished this means better national security but higher prices chmoth believes we can still have perpetual growth even though it will mean higher input cost inflation and interest rates everybody will need to lend a hand in helping to decrease the effect of the increased expenses what do you guys think of chamas prediction for the financial market
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