저자: TomLee/김기훈의퓨처클럽—영상내발언주체는TomLee로인용되나실제발화자는진행자Chris로추정 · 한국인
요약 보기
Tom Lee가 러셀2000이 40% 추가 상승할 수 있다고 봤다는 전언. 금리 하락 기대 속 대형 기술주에서 소형주로 자금 이동 예상, 소형주는 PER 약 10배로 저평가. 금리 민감 업종(증권, 바이오, 건설/부동산)에 수혜 기대. 미국 10년물 약 4.2%, 연내 3.8%까지 하락 가능성을 언급하며 TMF·레버리지 ETF(DRN, DPST 등) 활용 여지를 설명. 다만 단기 급등락 위험을 경고하고 추세 지속 여부를 점검하라고 함.
다듬은 글
hello. This is Chris. After I spoke last week, Tom, the number one strategist in the U.S., told me an interesting story. The Russell Index could rise by another 40%. The Russell Index is a U.S. small-cap index. And the Nasdaq was significantly worse than the Nasdaq index we see every day . But why did this person suddenly say this?
This person is definitely not someone who likes small-cap stocks. This person always talked about the SMP index and the NASDAQ index . And this is someone who has been right from 2023 until now, pushing forward strongly even when others were wavering in their bearish views, and surviving every time the market dropped.
But now, this person says that the SP index might be somewhat dispersed . yes. And the money accumulated in these large-cap tech stocks can come out and go to the Russell Index, that is, small-cap stocks. This is how they are talking . And small-cap stocks, interest rate- damaged stocks, and interest-rate-sensitive companies.
And regarding the additional investment, I think this person is basically sensitive to interest rates . So, this side can rise . They are saying this, and the basis is that interest rates will fall. And it is based on the assumption that inflation will be sufficiently alleviated, so inflation will go down and interest rates will continue to fall.
In that case, why is there a 40% upside ? For small-cap stocks, we look at the PER for valuation, you know. They say that kind of thing is only ten times as much . Based on the US next year, I suppose there will be a process of things improving next year. However, regarding V-Tech, it is currently around 3200 on the NASDAQ, and then the SMP large-cap stocks are like this .
As a result, too much value is generated. It means that even if something worth 10 times becomes 14 times, it goes up by 40% . Still, it's much lower than 24 times or 34 times . So, it seems they view it that way, that it’s okay. And if even a little money comes out of this large-cap stock, this small-cap stock can be driven up tremendously.
I think I see it a bit like this. So, I actually talked a lot about which one is better in the last video. So, let's just think about interest rates. What would be good about interest rates going down? Real estate is good. yes. Next, the securities company. Look at the securities company. Oh, regarding securities companies, even Samsung Securities in Korea has seen its stock price rise a lot these days .
Why is it that securities are the true medicine of interest rates? We have a real estate PF team, but after taking on 100 people, we ca n't do anything. You want to do IBD, but interest rates are too high, and you also need to make alternative investments. If interest rates are high, you might just think, "I'll just put it in a deposit," right?
That’s how it works . So, securities companies, and then biotech... ah, you know, that topic comes up all the time on various Navers . Even if you search internally, if you type in "biotech interest rates," you'll likely get results like "What are the interest rates? Don't do biotech." So, bio, yes.
And well, regarding construction— yes, construction stocks—since construction can only happen when the real estate market is healthy. So, why have concerns about PF arisen? That interest rate is a big part of the problem, too. Of course, there may have been various forms of excess, but there are an enormous number of empty houses in our country, almost like the whole nation .
That's not true. However, as interest rates rise, many projects are gaining business viability and are all being offered. We are shouldering all those risks, but if interest rates go down, it's like hanging an oxygen flag to breathe, and if they drop even further, we could really come back to life .
I'm still looking forward to it, though . yes. Well, finding good options when interest rates are lowered isn't as difficult as you might think. On top of that, the probability of President Trump winning this time is huge, you know. But what else does this person like? Well, he's someone who used to work in real estate, likes monetary easing, and is from Ivy League...
should n't we allow him to do his job? He's the kind of person who goes on and on like, "Isn't this capitalism?" So, when interest rates are low, the good ones are really good. yes. And it would be difficult if the two notes were out of sync, but they are slightly, slightly, similar. Uh, so... ah, you can find this.
But the difficult part is that these companies are n't making much money right now. Even the person who criticized the U.S. Russell Index says the same thing. The US Russell Index has little growth. There isn't much upward movement. Right? No, it's because I wrote it with high gold . And what this person is saying is that things will get better in 2025 .
Once interest rates fall. However, those who believe stocks lead by six months will move in that direction starting now, while those who believe they reflect reality will still align with what is more favorable in reality; it is ultimately your choice. But anyway, this person is seeing that opportunity.
Why? Because of the huge price difference. So, what should be done next? I think the investment strategy will be quite different when small-cap stocks or stocks that are vulnerable to interest rate hikes go up compared to when Big Tech was on the rise. Because at Big Tech, they name everything. Actually, this isn't something everyone has known since way back; it's something we learned as it grew over the past 5 or 10 years, but there is no one who doesn't know Nvidia.
Since there are Google, Microsoft, Tesla, and the Magnificent 7, the idea was to either pick one or two of them, or buy all seven—yes, buying individual stocks . But then they say the Russell 2000 is going up. The name itself is 2,000. Hey, I do n't know what's in the Russell 2000 either. If you search for "Russell 2000 ETF" on Google, all the stocks will come up.
Of course, anyone can see it. But I do n't know many companies either. Because there are seven Magnificents, and now there are 493 SMP 500 companies that are a bit less good. There are 2,000 under that; what should I do with them? hmm. You do n't even know Korea's Soyongju. Then, there are ETFs for that purpose.
yes. So, I think people usually invest through ETFs . Then, what ETFs are there? If you think about investing in this way, since you have faith in the interest rates, it seems like US real estate will improve . Then, if you search for "US real estate ETF" on Google, real estate ETFs will appear. But I want to earn more money.
3x ETF, this is dangerous. Yes, it is dangerous. It's dangerous, but whether it's 3x ETF, real estate, or whatever in English, Korean comes out. Because Google is smart, then, for example, ETFs like DRN come out. It tracks U.S. real estate stocks by multiplying them by three. If those U.S. real estate stocks rise even just a little, they will go all the way up .
Well, similarly, do you remember the SVB incident in the U.S.? A U.S. regional bank was on the verge of collapse . Many banks. The banks in that situation went bankrupt because of interest rates. If you want to bet that the economy will recover if interest rates fall, you can search for U.S. regional bank ETFs with leverage ratios like 3x or 1x, and various ETFs such as DPST will appear.
It has something similar in there, and the rate of return is pretty similar anyway. However, if you ask how risky and opportunistic it is, when the interest rate trade, the betting trade on interest rate cuts, and the Trump trade overlapped, about 50% of the ETPs moved in about 5 days. yes. It's really bad .
Since it's tripled, even if it moves just 17%, it moves 50% . They are moving in this way, and since these guys are from a relatively small company and have been heavily suppressed, they can easily move up to 10%. So, ETIF will move 30% easily . So, there is danger and opportunity . Of course, the weighting needs to be adjusted a bit .
However, all investments are in big tech or AI stocks. In that case, since it could potentially go this way, it seems necessary to allocate some assets to this side as well. And since many U.S. fund managers are doing that, this switching likely occurred. Since these people actually trade almost daily, they react quite nimbly .
And since I have a lot of Bigte anyway, I'm doing this by taking out a little less of it. Well, most of their ports are still on the fishing side . However, here, well, how should I put it? It could be good or bad to observe this, but I think we need to judge whether this trend will last for a while or if it will end after just a few days—those five days right now.
This is the case with this trend. But for example, the reason someone like Cog said that we need to do this even now is because they think that interest rates or trends will continue for about a year. Because interest rates aren't just going to be lowered tomorrow or the day after tomorrow . Even if I take it down every time there is an FMC, it takes quite a while.
It takes a long time to go down from 5.5 to 3.5. When I looked into that iPad Watch, which monitors U.S. interest rates, it showed that they had been slowly decreasing for over a year . So, if you trust this, you can react somewhat nimbly to stocks that will benefit from interest rate cuts, even now .
How should we view these interest rates ? If you think about it, this is about 4.2 based on the US 10-year Treasury. When it was high, it went close to 5 . I went to 5. And I think we need to give it some thought to the daytime . Towards the end of last year, there were as many as four or five expectations for interest rate cuts .
It went down to 3.8 back then . If interest rates are lowered several times, they will fall from the current base rate. Since the 10-year rate is being priced in advance, it has dropped a bit, and currently it is 4.2%. And as for the remaining interest rates this year, since there isn't much time left, I think I'll just look at them about a couple of times right now.
But the fact is, it's still being held captive until next year . So, if interest rates continue to fall to around 3.8%, we can profit from the process of rates dropping from 4.2% to 3.8% . Well, you could make a direct profit by buying interest rate ETFs like TMF or bond ETFs, or you could make a profit by buying stock sector ETFs or stocks that benefit when interest rates fall .
Or ultimately, I think it is decided here by how much of a ratio you are willing to accept regarding interest rates . It is a bit difficult right now. It's better to keep going where you started. It’s not just about holding onto what you’ve been holding onto; changes are happening right now. Regarding these changes, I think it is a time when we need to closely monitor both the US and domestic markets, observe how industries are evolving, and watch stock price reactions to respond nimbly .
I am also diligently following up. yes. We will continue to provide you with useful information . thank you
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