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Jim Cramer eyes Nvidia and its AI potential after last year's gains

CNBC Television · 2023-10-14 · 유튜브 시청 44,231 · Board Views 8 · International

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In celebration of the first anniversary of last year's market low I bought it. Tonight we're taking a look at how the rally unfolded over the past 12 months. Before the break I gave you a high-level view of the situation. But now let's talk individual stocks, which you know is what I really like to do.

The best performers in the S&P 500 since the index made its lowest close on October 12th last year. We're going in descending order, starting with greatest gain. Nvidia up 295% over the last year. 295%. No wonder my late dog was named Nvidia. And it trails the second best performer, Meta Platforms, which is up 147% over the same period.

Hey, looking back over the last 12 months, it's striking how hated these two stocks were at this time last year. Recall that Nvidia just pre-announced eight big quarterly revenue shortfall in early August of last year. Then it got hit with a ban on the sale of certain high-end chips to China. No one expected it.

Hey, things looked really ugly. But then ChatGPT debuted. It was that was last November, and kicked off the whole generative AI craze. We quickly realized Nvidia's technology is what makes this all possible. We've been out there. We saw it for our own eyes. No one seemed to care, but then they did. Now 1 year later, the only thing people remember about Nvidia is the fact that it's guided multiple billion dollars above expectations for the past two quarters.

And the only real constraint over the company's sales is production capacity. Glad we own this one for the Charitable Trust and told CNBC Investing Club members to own it, not trade it. Meanwhile, when Meta Platforms reported in October of last year, its results were so bad that I felt compelled to issue a mea culpa on air on Squawk on the Street for supporting the stock.

Not long after that though, the company announced the first of 2 years of rounds of layoffs. All in all, they've fired a quarter of the workforce. As Mark Zuckerberg told us, this is the year of efficiency. For workers, it became the year of living dangerously, by the way. Great movie. Uh these days it seems like the company can do no wrong.

Meta's cost are under control, the digital ad market's recovering, their revenue's growing again. Maybe most importantly, they've got an open-source code generation model called Llama 2. That's one of the most compelling AI applications out there right now. The lesson of Meta is this, uh when you're dealing with a great company that stumbled, you need to think about what could potentially go right to change the entire narrative.

Because that's true what happened here. Third best performer since the bottom is a bit of a surprise. It's called Fair Isaac. That's the company that's behind FICO scores, okay? With a With a stock that is up just 120%. For Isaac's Fair Isaac's written a strong housing market higher, and they also have a late a lesser-known predictive software-as-a-service business that helps companies with their decision-making.

Unfortunately, it's very hard to recommend this one with mortgage rates at virtually at 8% because you know how this one's going to get hit, right? In fact, I would actually ring the register on this one. Number four is General Electric, up 117% over the past year. After many years of underperformance and constant setbacks, GE finally got its act together.

They've already spun off GE Healthcare, which we own for the trust, and they'll spin off the power business as GE Vernova next year. At which point you'll have an incredibly attractive aerospace pure play left over that will be run by Larry Culp, one of the best in the business. The fifth best name in the S&P?

Oh, another charitable trust name called Broadcom. It's up 105% from the lows. This semiconductor and software company is one of the less appreciated AI winners. One reason why we really recently added to the trust, which you can follow, by the way, by joining the CNBC Investing Club. Going forward, Broadcom needs to close on its $61 billion acquisition of VMware, which should happen before the end of the month.

That's a nice software business with a big AI kicker that is growing like mad. Next up, we have a semiconductor capital equipment maker, like do machines that make semis. That's called Lam Research. We've talked about it for a long time. It's up 99% from a year ago. Oh, and Applied Materials which is in the same business was number 11 up almost 86%.

These are interesting because while semiconductor market's been bottoming in recent quarters, that's been a bumpy process. Lamb Applied Materials are good reminders that you need to get into the semiconductor equipment stocks before the semiconductor industry turns when there's still too much inventory because if you waited, well, you would have missed these incredible moves.

Seventh place another Cramer fave is in Adobe up 92% and that is just a clear AI winner. Adobe's introduced whole new AI products like Firefly which allows users to edit media with simple English language prompts. It's incredible. They also started to infuse the rest of the software industry with with AI functionality.

They showcased a lot of this stuff just last week at their Adobe Max event. Terrific event by the way. I recommended this one less than a month ago when it was at $532 after a very unjustified pullback and I hope you listen because it's already back up to just under 550 and was higher still. Wouldn't be surprised if Adobe's got more room to run.

Number eight an odd one, Royal Caribbean. Yes, it's gained about 90% even after the stock's pulled back substantially from its highs in late July. This move is all about the travel boom. The long on money, short on time thesis. Bookings have been very strong this year but the problem with Royal Caribbean and the other cruise stocks is they can be ridiculously volatile.

They're hated then, they're loved then, they're hated. Right now, we're in the hated part of the cycle because Wall Street just it's just not sure if people will keep taking cruises like they did in the in the immediate aftermath of the pandemic. Especially now that we're feeling the pinch from inflation and a possible slowing economy.

I'm somewhat more sanguine about Royal Caribbean than most though because cruises represent great value from vacation at a mostly fixed price. What's not to like? So, don't be surprised if bookings hold up better than expected even in a weaker economy. Oh, I love to see Eli Lilly make the top performing list with a the 88% gain over the past year.

This one's all about Mounjaro. That's Lilly's revolutionary diabetes drug that will almost certainly get approval for weight loss along with a ton of other indications. Miracle medic medication, frankly. Hey, by the way, Lilly's had flawless execution pushing forward its pipeline, which includes an Alzheimer's treatment that I remain cautiously optimistic about.

We bought this stock for the trust because of the Alzheimer's drug only to be pleasantly surprised by Mounjaro. Amazing. Finally, there's one home builder that made the top 10, that's Pulte Group, sneaking in with an 87% gain from the bottom. We know the home builders remain strong in the face of the Fed's relentless rate hikes for more much longer than anyone thought, right?

In part because they've had such an untenable housing shortage. Now, the home builder stocks are pulling back from their highs, including Pulte, because 8% mortgage rates are bad for business. That said, we still have a huge housing shortage. That's not being cured. So, it's hard to get too negative on this group.

I think there's a natural floor under them, even though others were chattering all day about how bad they're doing and how low they'll go. Bottom line, those are the 10 best performers since the market bottom a year ago. I think some of them can keep winning here, but some have definitely lost their luster in a world where rates are soaring again and we're increasingly worried.

Once again, about the economy. Let's go to Roy in California. Roy. Hey, Jimmy Chill. The chill's in the house. Yeah, I tried to be witty here with this old Jerry Lewis Tony Curtis movie called Boeing Boeing. I like that movie. It was funny. talk to it. Yeah, well, it's not so funny what I'm looking at with this stock situation with Boeing.

No, it's not. and now it's down to 185 and I'm you know, I'm copper tubing and all. Roy, someone has to be held accountable for this. Someone has to be held accountable for this. I mean, there are only two of these guys. There's a lot of travel. They can't seem to put these things behind them. I think if you're going to run this company, what you have to do is you have to be on the factory floor.

You rotate factory floor then factory floor then factory floor. You can't be holed up. You got to be on the floor. And you can't be just in Washington. And if that happened, I think you'd inspire people and you would make sure that these things did not happen. I'm not sure that what I described is actually happening at Boeing.

How about Sandy in Arizona? Sandy. Jim, how are you? I'm doing well, Sandy. How are you? Uh I'm fine. First time caller, long time listener, and investment club member. Yes. Jim, um you know, in in our generation, oil is never going to go away. So, I'm heavily invested in oil, but there's one company that major company that I I'm having my doubts about and I want your expertise.

Uh this this week was reported a whale with a lot of money to spend has taken a bullish stance on Chevron. Chevron between the bulls and the bears is almost split down the middle. Asset to cash ratio 1.125, annual dividend 3.75, market cap 307 billion, beta 1.1, 10.3 PE ratio. Every time the market goes down, this stock of all my oils swings down.

The delta is just like off the charts. No, it is. You you've got that right. Here's what you do. Do I hold or sell? No, you buy. I know that's contrary to what I just said, but this thing sells at 10 times earnings. Mike Wirth is as good as it gets. They're spewing the cash. They've got a giant buyback.

I actually feel quite sanguine about the stock of of of Chevron. I really do. But after going through these top 10 performers since the last year's bottom, some of them have indeed lost their luster. The housing ones I don't really care for. That being said, there are some names on this list that can definitely keep winning from here, and you know that the Investing Club follows a couple of them, and you can just zone in, belong to them, and you'll do well.

There's much more Mad Money ahead. There were strong post-earnings pops. The banks appeared early gains today. Oh, they were screaming higher at one point. I'm breaking down what it means for the overall market. Plus this morning I asked BlackRock's Larry Fink what I think is so perilous in this market.

I'll reveal what he said and what his answer could signal when it comes to your next investment. And what do we call this? Rapid fire tonight's edition of the lightning round. So stay with C C.

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