저자: LarryFink · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 래리 핑크는 장기 투자자는 주식이나 실물자산에 최소 80%를 배분해야 한다고 주장하며, 단기 지정학 리스크에도 불구하고 AI·로보틱스, 공급망 재편, 의학 발전을 근거로 낙관적 입장을 밝힘. [자산 배분 및 주식 비중] 장기 투자자는 시장 변동성을 견딜 수 있다면 주식 또는 실물자산(부동산, 인프라 등)에 최소 80%를 배분해야 한다고 주장. 전통적인 60/40 배분은 장기 투자자에게 적합하지 않다고 봄. [채권 및 금리 전망] 장기 금리는 5% 이상을 유지할 것으로 전망. 물가 지표가 끈끈함(stickiness)을 보여준다고 언급. 수익률 곡선이 평탄화되는 것은 투자자들이 금리 인상 종료가 가까워졌다고 보기 때문으로 해석. 연금 등 확정급여형 기금이 부채와 자산을 매칭하면서 장기채 매수가 늘어날 것으로 예상. [인프라·신용 투자] 신용 자산에서 7%, 인프라 투자에서 10~12% 수익을 얻을 수 있다고 언급하며 8~15% 수익 가능성을 제시. [공급망 및 지역] 지정학 리스크로 국방 지출 증가와 공급망 분절화 가속 예상. 중국 의존도 재조정 중이며 인도, 멕시코 성장 기회를 강조. 일본은 기시다 총리 체제에서 기업 친화적 개혁으로 투자 관심이 커지고 있다고 언급. [AI·의료 및 기타] AI와 로보틱스 관련 기회를 강조. 비만 치료제(GLP-1 계열)와 일라이릴리의 알츠하이머 약 등 의학 발전이 기대수명을 늘릴 것으로 전망. [리스크 및 조건] 하마스의 이스라엘 공격 등 지정학 리스크가 단기적 공포를 키우고 있음. 장기 투자 전제는 10~20년 시계와 시장 변동성 감내 능력. [출연자 전망] 인류는 10~20년 뒤 지금보다 나은 위치에 있을 것이라 낙관하며 실물자산과 주식을 보유하겠다고 밝힘.
다듬은 글
I would to ask you are you would in on your conference go say you're disappointed because you're you're a competitive person sorry about the Dodgers and what I look at and I say to myself if you're disappointed with these numbers you're doing everything you can to bring in money there's really not more than you can do and it just happens to be the world and where the bonds are that I think are making so your competition is tough look at as you said I mean revenues were up 5% operating income was up 7% net income was up 14% we did have some outflows in in our Precision ETFs which is a great example of of more people choosing ey shares uh to trade around actively trading it and when Market sentiment turns like it did in August and September and you people can see that daily people should paying attention to the Precision you know sentiment and you see outflows however I mean it's up hundreds of billions of dollars in the last few years so it's every time we've seen this period of time when it we see outflows we see real flows when sentiment turns uh we had one big client uh in in emia who took pulled out money it had nothing to do with it our normal flows were 95% of the average flows of the last bunch of quarters and then systematically over the last 12 months we're up $300 billion in net inflows you know and so and we see a huge opportunities and flows over the next year or so because all the things we're working on and uh but there is no question we have a better understanding of the texture of what's going on in the market through our ETF platform and our Global Network and and unquestionably we're seeing you know my barometer of Hope and fear with all the geopolitical issues we're seeing more fear more people pulling back and you're actually seen that in the yield curve you're seeing the yield curve flatten right and the yield curve is flattening U because uh a people think we're closer to the end of rate hikes I'm still calling for rates long rates to be above over 5% I think the numbers of inflation this week really shows the stickiness of it we're going to do a lot more military spending as a result of geopolitical issues we are we are uh we are going to see an acceleration of fragmentation of Supply chains because of geopolitical issues but also as we advance Ai and Robotics there are such an enormous OPP opportunity to Nearshore and uh and um and I think this is all the dynamic that's part of the Dynamics of what's going on in China when you were talking about China and China's growth issues we are seeing a re-calibration as I think I said a couple quarters ago people are reassessing all their dependencies and one of the great dependencies that the world still has is the amount of manufacturing assembly in China right technology is allowing us to recalibrate that and then we're also recalibrating look at the growth grow rates of India you look at the growth rates of Mexico great opportunities both I know you know Mexico very well India was quite impressive this and that's where money is going to right I was in Japan last week and the amount of investor interest to invest in Japan is extraordinary we have a prime minister a new prime minister in kashida who has really reoriented the entire economy more business friendly business open they are trying to track more and more external Capital soing actually money moving from different locations back into CH in Japan and Japan has been an area where where investors have been systematically underinvested and so they're now getting back in but you make the point of the generational opportunity in bonds but you just said about the 30y year now I found myself looking at portfolios because I'm I have to invest in I can in bonds and I was very attracted to cand to the high yield it just seemed like a great opportunity um but I don't know where that's where you would prefer someone might age what who's interested in that and who should be as rates go higher you're going to see more immunization of of of the old defined benefit plans to lock in as liability rates went up we are seeing more and more Pension funds more corporate funds that are actually match assets and liabilities and so they're going to be able to immunize the volatility and that means they're going to be selling out of equities buying more long bonds and that will happen it's not happening yet um but let's be clear if you could start earning 7% on credit right if you could start earning 10 to 12% on infrastructure investing as our infrastructure act going in as our Ira starting to be implemented these are going to be good healthy long-term Investments that are going to be you know anywhere from 8 to 15% returns with high probability of success right and so that's where a lot of money is moving okay say Carl when I was talking about how the rich people come on and there like basically Peril is forget it this is what I'm talk that's the opportunity and people who are listening should say you know what in this time of peril did he just say I might be able to get those rates that's pretty darn good and you know right now we are we're facing a lot of headwinds on geopolitical issues uh Hamas invasion of Israel the horrific acts that creates a lot of fear and people are actually pulling back watching this at the same time you know and the headline of every newspaper every website is about the fear issues about the world but if you overlay the opportunities in investing in Ai and Robotics the opportunities in near Shoring and recalibrating supply chain now if you overlay because you were talking about the healthcare companies now if you overlay the incredible transformation in in in with those zenek and other items what is going to do for longevity of Life yes okay this week we discovered that these drugs can help in renal failure they can help in other things now if you overlay that and like Eli Lily's drug for Alzheimer's that extends uh the pathway by at least 40% this is creating hope and so a lot of people ask me why isn't the market collapsing okay because of all of this we're not spending time talking about these opportunities of there is incredible medical discovery that is elongating life we have great recalibration of Supply chains that's going to bring jobs here opportunities here in the United States in Mexico and India and other places so you know we're spending so much time on the negatives but all of this just tells me why you need to be continue investing yeah these are the opportunities we spend so much time talking about the fact that we're not going to eat sugar and cereal maybe we should talk about the idea that maybe our average lifespan is going to be 75 but you know think about what that means though getting back to long duration Bond so if we're going to be living longer are we being prepared properly and if you can start locking in you know 7 8 9% for 10 20 years that's going to give you a lot more confidence and dity people are betting against themselves they think they're going to make it to 72 they should be thinking that they can make it to 85 they better have enough money when they get there I think that is going to be the biggest societal risk yes um and and I think you know look at we're seeing more because of drugs drug abuse but and so that's bringing down our longevity rates all those type of issues and so if you make it to 60 you have a higher probability making it to 80 and 90 and 100 and so the statistics of the declining mortality rates are hiding some of the real upside and I'm not trying to dismiss some of these tragic medical problems like you know drug abuse and the and but we may be solving obesity which is the major problem of so many of the problems and and so I I'm I'm more optimistic than ever with the overlay that in the short run we're going to have to face some near term issues right do you think that that means the median age of the marginal Equity buyer Rises yes where you will you'll tolerate risk later in life I am and I'm older no I there's no question I think the traditional reallocation I think the 6040 type of thing I think it you know for a long-term investor long-term view who can tolerate Market volatility you should be at least 80% in equities or or or hard assets it could be real estate it could be infrastructure and if you could really tolerate it in my mind you should have been 90% 100% inequities now a lot of people can't afford that typ this a radical View and yet it's it's an empirical View it it proves out you got to have a 10 20 year view okay I'm a hopeful person I believe that in 10 years and 20 years humanity is in better position than it is today with that view I want to own hard assets I want to own equities I want to be a part of this economy
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